scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1908) ◽  
pp. 20191157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

Population growth metrics such as R 0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R 0 may be misleading.

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

AbstractPopulation growth metrics such asR0are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species’ fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density, and dispersal may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities, and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only inR0may be misleading.

scholarly journals The Hunger Games as the Key to Happily Ever After?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Deere ◽  
Aziz Aboobaker ◽  
Roberto Salguero-Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Calorie Restriction ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Model Species ◽  
Hunger Games ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Realistic Approach ◽  
The Hunger Games

The world’s human population is reaching record longevities. Consequently, societies are experiencing the tangible impacts of prolonged longevity, such as increased retirement age. A major hypothesised influence on ageing patterns is resource availability and calorie restriction, considered by many to extend longevity in any organism. Here, we highlight challenges facing the field of calorie restriction research as it pertains to ageing and how more realistic environments can impact the role calorie restriction plays in longevity of species. We reviewed 120 peer-reviewed published studies to quantify calorie restriction effects on longevity. We show that calorie restriction research does not always have positive effects on ageing with 27% of studies having no, negative or neutral effects. Additionally, research is biased towards short-lived species and lacks realism. We argue that only by taking a more realistic approach can the impacts of calorie restriction on longevity under climate change be understood. We conclude by discussing Planarians and Hydra as model species that allow for future research to have a better understanding of calorie restriction effects on long-lived species, while incorporating climate change impacts. Steering future calorie restriction research towards integrating interaction effects across a broader range of species will begin addressing the challenges of calorie restriction research. Crucial insights from future research can contribute to the fundamental and translational understanding of human senescence.

Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christy L. van Beek ◽  
Bastiaan G. Meerburg ◽  
René L.M. Schils ◽  
Jan Verhagen ◽  
Peter J. Kuikman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ch4 Emissions

scholarly journals Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ridouan Bani ◽  
Justin Marleau ◽  
Marie-Josée Fortin ◽  
Rémi M. Daigle ◽  
Frédéric Guichard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Larval Duration ◽  
Survival And Development

AbstractClimate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998-2007) and future (2068-2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.

scholarly journals Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (4) ◽  
pp. 744-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyssa-Lois M. Gehman ◽  
Richard J. Hall ◽  
James E. Byers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Performance ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Thermal Adaptation ◽  
Parasite Prevalence ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Northern Portion ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Host Parasite

Host–parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host–parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite’s current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.

scholarly journals Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1818) ◽  
pp. 20151561 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Pearce-Higgins ◽  
Nancy Ockendon ◽  
David J. Baker ◽  
Jamie Carr ◽  
Elizabeth C. White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Population Responses ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Species Population

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

scholarly journals Micro-Fragmentation as an Effective and Applied Tool to Restore Remote Reefs in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 6574
Author(s):  
J. J. Adolfo Tortolero-Langarica ◽  
Alma P. Rodríguez-Troncoso ◽  
Amílcar L. Cupul-Magaña ◽  
Baruch Rinkevich
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Tropical Pacific ◽  
Skeletal Density ◽  
Survival Percentage ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Coral Reef Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Change Drivers

Coral reef ecosystems are continuously degraded by anthropogenic and climate change drivers, causing a widespread decline in reef biodiversity and associated goods and services. In response, active restoration methodologies and practices have been developed globally to compensate for losses due to reef degradation. Yet, most activities employ the gardening concept that uses coral nurseries, and are centered in easily-accessible reefs, with existing infrastructure, and impractical for coral reefs in remote locations. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of direct outplanting of coral micro-fragments (Pavona clavus and Pocillopora spp.) as a novel approach to restore remote reefs in the Islas Marías archipelago in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coral growth (height-width-tissue cover), survival percentage, extension rates (cm year−1), skeletal density (g cm−3) and calcification rates (g cm−2 year−1) were assessed over 13 months of restoration. In spite of detrimental effects of Hurricane Willa, transplants showed a greater-than-twofold increase in all growth metrics, with ~58–61% survival rate and fast self-attachment (within ~3.9 months) for studied species, with Pocilloporids exhibiting higher extension, skeletal density, and calcification rates than Pavona. While comprehensive long-term studies are required, direct transplantation methodologies of coral micro-fragments are emerging as time-effective and affordable restoration tools to mitigate anthropogenic and climate change impacts in remote and marginal reefs.

scholarly journals Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 99-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fai Fung ◽  
Ana Lopez ◽  
Mark New
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
World Population ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Run Off

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on population growth across a species’ range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0247290
Author(s):  
Allison M. Louthan ◽  
William Morris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Variable ◽  
Geographic Ranges ◽  
Nonlinear Responses ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Impacts of climate change can differ substantially across species’ geographic ranges, and impacts on a given population can be difficult to predict accurately. A commonly used approximation for the impacts of climate change on the population growth rate is the product of local changes in each climate variable (which may differ among populations) and the sensitivity (the derivative of the population growth rate with respect to that climate variable), summed across climate variables. However, this approximation may not be accurate for predicting changes in population growth rate across geographic ranges, because the sensitivities to climate variables or the rate of climate change may differ among populations. In addition, while this approximation assumes a linear response of population growth rate to climate, population growth rate is typically a nonlinear function of climate variables. Here, we use climate-driven integral projection models combined with projections of future climate to predict changes in population growth rate from 2008 to 2099 for an uncommon alpine plant species, Douglasia alaskana, in a rapidly warming location, southcentral Alaska USA. We dissect the causes of among-population variation in climate change impacts, including magnitude of climate change in each population and nonlinearities in population response to climate change. We show that much of the variation in climate change impacts across D. alaskana’s range arises from nonlinearities in population response to climate. Our results highlight the critical role of nonlinear responses to climate change impacts, suggesting that current responses to increases in temperature or changes in precipitation may not continue indefinitely under continued changes in climate. Further, our results suggest the degree of nonlinearity in climate responses and the shape of responses (e.g., convex or concave) can differ substantially across populations, such that populations may differ dramatically in responses to future climate even when their current responses are quite similar.

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