Time series models for prediction of Leptospirosis in different climate zones in Sri Lanka

AbstractIn tropical countries such as Sri Lanka, where leptospirosis—a deadly disease with a high mortality rate—is endemic, prediction is required for public health planning and resource allocation. Routinely collected meteorological data may offer an effective means of making such predictions. This study included monthly leptospirosis and meteorological data from January 2007 to April 2019 from Sri Lanka. Factor analysis was used first with rainfall data to classify districts into meteorological zones. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for univariate predictions and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for multivariable analysis of leptospirosis with monthly average rainfall, temperature, relative humidity (RH), solar radiation (SR) and the number of rainy days/month (RD). Districts were classified into wet (WZ) and dry (DZ) zones and highlands (HL) based on the factor analysis of rainfall data. The WZ had the highest leptospirosis incidence; there was no difference in the incidence between the DZ and HL. Leptospirosis was fluctuated positively with rainfall, RH and RD, whereas temperature and SR were fluctuated negatively. ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12, ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12, and ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 were the best univariate models for DZ, WZ, and HL, respectively. Despite its known association, rainfall was positively significant in the WZ only at lag 5 (P = 0.03) but was negatively associated at lag 2 and 3 (P = 0.04). RD was positively associated for all three zones. Temperature was positively associated at lag 0 for the WZ and HL (P < 0.009) and was negatively associated at lag 1 for the WZ (P = 0.01). There was no association with RH in contrast to previous studies. Based on altitude and rainfall data, meteorological variables could effectively predict the incidence of leptospirosis with different models for different climatic zones. These predictive models could be effectively used in public health planning purposes.

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Adoption of local public health plan for better health and quality of life in Belgrade

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa166.1246 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

G Tamburkovski ◽

G Belamarić ◽

D Matijević ◽

S Mladenović Janković

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Local Government ◽

Health Plan ◽

Health Planning ◽

City Council ◽

Public Health Strategy ◽

Public Health Planning ◽

Health Strategy ◽

Public Health Plan ◽

The City

Abstract Issue Development of public health plan for the City of Belgrade, facilitate multisectoral participation and encourage local government to incorporate public health planning into integrated planning framework, including funding. Description of the Problem According to Public Health Low, adopted in Serbia in 2016 and Public health strategy (2018), Council for Health, as a professional body of the City government, was obliged to prepare draft of the Plan. Members of the City Council are representatives from different sectors: health care, public health, private sector, child care, education and civil society. Based on data and information from relevant institutions and organizations, situation analysis and health profile of the City have been prepared during 2018. Results Public health plan for the City of Belgrade has been drafted for a time period from 2020 to 2026, aligned and within time frame of the National public health strategy. Plan included: mission, vision, objectives, activities, responsible institutions, funding sources and indicators for monitoring. Focus was on health promotion and empowerment of citizens to adopt healthy lifestyle as well on investment in environmental sustainability, poverty and inequalities reduction and minimizing risks to human health and well-being. On December 2019, Belgrade City Assembly adopted this document, with full responsibility for implementation and budgeting specific programs and projects from 2020. Lessons Multisectoral working group, with clear defined scope of work, supported by regulations, encouraged and managed by experts in the field, highly motivated to be creator of changes is prerequisite for successful and productive public health planning process. Key messages Public health planning enabled communication and cooperation among experts and decision makers and represented a whole-of-local government approach to public health. Document is used as a resource and model for the other cities and municipalities.

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In what ways does the mandatory nature of Victoria's municipal public health planning framework impact on the planning process and outcomes?

Australia and New Zealand Health Policy ◽

10.1186/1743-8462-4-4 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Prue Bagley ◽

Vivian Lin ◽

Peter Sainsbury ◽

Marilyn Wise ◽

Tom Keating ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Planning Process ◽

Health Planning ◽

Public Health Planning ◽

Planning Framework

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Clostridium subterminale Septicemia in a Patient with Metastatic Gastrointestinal Adenocarcinoma

Case Reports in Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1155/2018/6031510 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2018 ◽

pp. 1-3 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Kevin M. Trapani ◽

Leigh J. Boghossian ◽

Elizabeth Caskey

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Intensive Care Unit ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Clinical Management ◽

Health Planning ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Gi Tract ◽

Public Health Planning ◽

Clostridium Subterminale ◽

Gi Mucosa

Clostridium subterminale is a rare member of the Clostridiaceae family that is rarely cultured. This report examines a case of Clostridium subterminale cultured from the blood of a 72-year-old man who was ultimately diagnosed with metastatic gastrointestinal (GI) adenocarcinoma. The patient was receiving treatment for nosocomial pneumonia prior to culture of the C. subterminale, which led to suspicion for malignancy. Extensive GI and oncologic workup demonstrated multiple comorbidities and a primary GI cancer, which likely caused a breach in the GI mucosa and C. subterminale entrance into the bloodstream. After a prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay, the patient died on hospital day 23. Though rarely reported, C. subterminale septicemia has been demonstrated in patients with malignancy, specifically of the GI tract. Therefore, this case represents a typical C. subterminale septicemia patient. Given the prevalence of Clostridia and the contemporary emergence of multidrug resistant (MDR) microorganisms, both typical and atypical cases regarding rare members of the species have a significant role in the clinical management and public health planning.

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