National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland, early 2021

We report on the second and final part of a pre-registered forecasting study on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Germany and Poland. Fifteen independent research teams provided forecasts at lead times of one through four weeks from January through mid-April 2021. Compared to the first part (October--December 2020), the number of participating teams increased, and a number of teams started providing subnational-level forecasts. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in the first part of our study. In both countries, case counts declined initially, before rebounding due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 variant. Deaths declined through most of the study period in Germany while in Poland they increased after a prolonged plateau. Many, though not all, models outperformed a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead, with ensemble methods showing very good relative performance. Major trend changes in reported cases, however, remained challenging to predict.

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A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J. Bracher ◽

D. Wolffram ◽

J. Deuschel ◽

K. Görgen ◽

J. L. Ketterer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Policy Impact ◽

Disease Modelling ◽

Lead Times ◽

Single Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Model Predictions ◽

Short Term Forecasting ◽

Second Wave ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractDisease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

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Short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave – a preregistered study

10.1101/2020.12.24.20248826 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

J. Bracher ◽

D. Wolffram ◽

J. Deuschel ◽

K. Görgen ◽

J.L. Ketterer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Relative Performance ◽

Lead Times ◽

Single Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Model Predictions ◽

Short Term Forecasting ◽

Second Wave ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractWe report insights from ten weeks of collaborative COVID-19 forecasting for Germany and Poland (12 October – 19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

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METHODS OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF ICE THICKNESS GROWTH IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF THE CASPIAN SEA

Географический вестник = Geographical bulletin ◽

10.17072/2079-7877-2020-3-81-97 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 81-97

Author(s):

Zhanar K. Naurozbayeva ◽

◽

Vladimir A. Lobanov ◽

Keyword(s):

Caspian Sea ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Winter Period ◽

Lead Times ◽

Short Term ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

The North ◽

North Eastern ◽

Short Term Forecasting ◽

Daily Forecast

The Caspian Sea is a southern sea with annual ice cover in the northern part. The thickness of the ice can reach one meter or more, depending on the severity of the winter. The sea ice of the Caspian Sea is characterized by significant variability, which affects human activities (industrial, fishing ones) as well as the fauna of the region. Based on daily information of North Caspian stations for the last 10 years, there has been developed short-term forecasting methodology for predicting daily increase in ice thickness. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated on the basis of calculation-dependent and independent materials of different lead times. The daily forecast of ice thickness growth was 82 to 98% justified. Climate research allowed us to establish that the maximum ice thickness has decreased stepwise since the late 1980s by 20–25 cm. This is due to the lower sum of negative temperatures, which in turn is associated with an increase in the number of days with a W form of atmospheric circulation and a decrease in the number of days with an E form in the winter period.

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The Effectiveness of Catching Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae: Noctuinae) (= Agrotinae) in Pheromone Traps and Light Traps, for Short-Term Forecasting

Journal of Plant Protection Research ◽

10.2478/jppr-2013-0033 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 53 (3) ◽

pp. 215-221 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Magdalena Jakubowska ◽

Jan Bocianowski

Keyword(s):

Ornamental Plants ◽

Agrotis Segetum ◽

Pheromone Traps ◽

Light Traps ◽

Monitoring Methods ◽

Short Term ◽

Sexual Pheromone ◽

Time Period ◽

Long Term Forecasting ◽

Short Term Forecasting

Abstract In recent years, a local, growing population of cutworm in agricultural fields with various plants such as vegetables, horticultural, and ornamental plants has been observed. The scope of our research covered the observation of two species of cutworms: Agrotis segetum (Schiff.) and A. exclamationis (L.), which are the most dominant species in Poland. Cutworms were monitored in the 2005-2009 season with the use of Delta type pheromone traps with synthetic sexual pheromone and self-catch traps with a light source. The purpose of the research was to determine the dependence between the dynamics of the catches and the location of the traps, in fields with sugar beet, winter barley, and winter wheat in two municipalities: Winna Góra and Więcławice for the two studied cutworm species. Moreover, we used light traps in our analysis of the two studied cutworm species’, flight dynamics in Poznań, Winna Góra, and Więcławice in the 2003-2006 time period. The overall results can be used for adjusting the currently used monitoring methods for short-term and long-term forecasting of cutworm flights, and for optimizing chemical control of the cutworm

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MODELING AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF TECHNOLOGY COMPONENT OF ELECTRICAL LOAD OF THE REGIONAL ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM

Tekhnichna Elektrodynamika ◽

10.15407/techned2016.04.068 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2016 (4) ◽

pp. 68-70 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. Chernenko ◽

◽

O. Martyniuk ◽

V. Miroshnyk ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Power System ◽

Electric Power ◽

Electric Power System ◽

Electrical Load ◽

Short Term ◽

Short Term Forecasting

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The causes of poverty in Russia

Financial Analytics Science and Experience ◽

10.24891/fa.13.1.21 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 21-36

Author(s):

I.S. Ivanchenko

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Regional Development ◽

Financial Market ◽

Russian Federation ◽

Short Term ◽

Financial Situation ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Development Plans ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

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Effect of short-term use of oral contraceptive pills on intraocular pressure

Pakistan Journal of Ophthalmology ◽

10.36351/pjo.v35i3.871 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 35 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Tayyaba Gul Malik ◽

Hina Nadeem ◽

Eiman Ayesha ◽

Rabail Alam

Keyword(s):

Oral Contraceptive ◽

Childbearing Age ◽

Short Term ◽

Oral Contraceptive Pills ◽

Contraceptive Pills ◽

Time Period ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Group A ◽

Group B ◽

Short Time

Objective: To study the effect of short-term use of oral contraceptive pills on intra-ocular pressures of women of childbearing age. Methods: It was a comparative observational study, conducted at Arif memorial teaching hospital and Allied hospital Faisalabad for a period of six months. Hundred female subjects were divided into two groups of 50 each. Group A, included females, who had been taking oral contraceptive pills (OCP) for more than 6 months and less than 36 months. Group B, included 50 age-matched controls, who had never used OCP. Ophthalmic and systemic history was taken. Careful Slit lamp examination was performed and intraocular pressures (IOP) were measured using Goldman Applanation tonometer. Fundus examination was done to rule out any posterior segment disease. After collection of data, we analyzed and compared the intra ocular pressures between the two groups by using ANOVA in SPSS version 21. Results: Average duration of using OCP was 14.9 months. There was no significant difference of Cup to Disc ratios between the two groups (p= 0.109). However, significant difference was noted between the IOP of OCP group and controls. (p=0.000). Conclusion: OCP significantly increase IOP even when used for short time period.

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