scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 infection trends in the EU-27 countries, the UK and Switzerland due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Giovanni Gerli ◽  
Stefano Centanni ◽  
Joan B Soriano ◽  
Julio Ancochea
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Sigmoidal Curve ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Epidemiological Trends ◽  
The Eu

Background: On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa. Several mutations in Omicron indicate that it may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes. Methods: We used our previous modelling algorithms to forecast the spread of Omicron aggregated in the EU-27 countries, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, and report trends in daily cases with a 7-day moving average. We followed EQUATOR TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models. Modelling included a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron in South Africa, a five-parameter logistic (5PL) asymmetrical sigmoidal curve following a parametric growth in Europe, and a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak. Results: Up to January 15, 2022, we estimated a background rate projection in EU-27 countries, the UK and Switzerland of about 145,000 COVID-19 daily cases without Omicron, which increases up to 440,000 COVID-19 daily cases in the worst scenario of Omicron spread, and 375,000 in the best scenario. Therefore, Omicron might represent a relative increase from the background daily rates of COVID-19 infection in Europe of 1.03-fold or 2.03-fold, that is up to a 200% increase. Conclusion: This warning pandemic surge due to Omicron is calling for further reinforcing of COVID-19 universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new lockdowns in Europe.

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 infection trends and new hospital admissions in England due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Giovanni Gerli ◽  
Stefano Centanni ◽  
Joan B Soriano ◽  
Julio Ancochea
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Severity Of Illness ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Degree Polynomial ◽  
Polynomial Curve ◽  
Epidemiological Trends

Objectives: On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa. Several mutations in Omicron indicate that it may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes. We used our previous modelling algorithms to forecast the spread of Omicron in England. Design: We followed EQUATOR TRIPOD guidance for multivariable prediction models. Setting: England. Participants: Not applicable. Interventions: Non-interventional, observational study with a predicted forecast of outcomes. Main outcome measures: Trends in daily COVID-19 cases with a 7-day moving average and of new hospital admissions. Methods: Modelling included a third-degree polynomial curve in existing epidemiological trends on the spread of Omicron and a new Gaussian curve to estimate a downward trend after a peak in England. Results: Up to February 15, 2022, we estimated a projection of 250,000 COVID-19 daily cases of Omicron spread in the worse scenario, and 170,000 in the best scenario. Omicron might represent a relative increase from the background daily rates of COVID-19 infection in England of mid December 2021 of 1.9 to 2.8-fold. With a 5-day lag-time, daily new hospital admissions would peak at around 5,063 on January 23, 2022 in the worse scenario. Conclusion: This warning of pandemic surge of COVID-19 due to Omicron is calling for further reinforcing in England and elsewhere of universal hygiene interventions (indoor ventilation, social distance, and face masks), and anticipating the need of new total or partial lockdowns in England.

BS449 to EC3 via BS5950: The Process, the Pitfalls and the Preparations

2005 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Nethercot
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Design Codes ◽  
Personal View ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Direct Association ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Steel Design ◽  
The Eu

For more than 35 years the author has been directly involved with the preparation of Structural Steel Design Codes – both in the UK and, more widely, in the EU. This activity has also extended to include direct association with Code developments in several other countries around the world e.g. South Africa, Hong Kong etc. plus observation of the process in many places. Utilising the UK position as the timeline, this paper presents a largely personal view of developments over the past 100 years, beginning in the pre-code era and culminating in today's age of international cooperation.

Uranium price recovery has limited upside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
Nuclear Group ◽  
Procurement Programme ◽  
The Eu

Subject Uranium prices and nuclear power. Significance The price of uranium breached 25 dollars per pound this month for the first time since last August. Boosted by Kazakhstan, the source of 41% of global uranium supplies, announcing last month that it will reduce production by 10% in 2017, the metal's price has been gradually recovering from last November's twelve-year low of 18 dollars per pound. However, the market remains oversupplied. Impacts Brexit may leave the UK nuclear sector without a regulator and short of fuel (21% of UK electricity generation is nuclear). Vietnam has abandoned its long-delayed plan to build its first nuclear power plant. South Africa has started a procurement programme to add 9.6 gigawatts of nuclear capacity. The EU has approved the 4.5-billion-euro (4.8-billion-dollar) restructuring plan of the French nuclear group Areva.

scholarly journals L'impact du Brexit sur l'Afrique en période de crise Corona : le cas de l'Afrique du Sud, du Nigeria, du Ghana et du Kenya

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Kohnert
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Afrique Subsaharienne ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Secteur Informel ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Although Britain has been so far the hardest hit among the EU member states by the corona pandemic, Johnson persists to leave the EU at the end of 2020, whatever the cost. Presumably, the pandemic will have a by far bigger impact on the UK African trade than a no-deal Brexit. In Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa had been arguably the hardest hit country both by Brexit and Corona. However, the poor, mainly working in the informal sector, were more concerned about the economic impact of the pandemic than the disease itself. In Nigeria, many people envisaged Corona as a plague of the rich and the elite. President Buhari shared the hubris of many British that they are less vulnerable to the pandemic and could continue with high-flying Post-Brexit plans. Ghana counts among those countries in Sub-Sahara Africa which has been most severely hit by the corona pandemic. But unlike South Africa and Nigeria, the direct effects of the pandemic on the downturn of its economy are not as significant as in other African states. In Kenya the number of corona-death had been much lower than for the SARS pandemic of 2003, but the transmission of the COVID-19 virus had been significantly greater. Nevertheless, many Kenyan’s saw the Brexit as a disguised blessing because they pined their hope on massive FDI by UK investors. In any case, it is clear beyond doubt that those who are to suffer most by the combined effects of the corona-pandemic and Brexit in Africa (and presumably world-wide) are the poor and vulnerable. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ : Bien que la Grande-Bretagne ait jusqu'à présent été la plus durement touchée par la pandémie corona parmi les États membres de l'UE, Johnson persiste à quitter l'UE fin 2020, quel qu'en soit le coût. Vraisemblablement, la pandémie aura un impact beaucoup plus important sur le commerce africain du Royaume-Uni qu'un Brexit sans accord. En Afrique subsaharienne, l'Afrique du Sud a probablement été le pays le plus durement touché par le Brexit et Corona. Cependant, les pauvres, travaillant principalement dans le secteur informel, étaient plus préoccupés par l'impact économique de la pandémie que par la maladie elle-même. Au Nigéria, beaucoup de gens considéraient Corona comme un fléau pour les riches et l'élite. Le président Buhari a partagé l'orgueil de nombreux Britanniques selon lesquels ils sont moins vulnérables à la pandémie et pourraient continuer avec des plans de haut vol après le Brexit. Le Ghana compte parmi les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne qui ont été les plus durement touchés par la pandémie de corona. Mais contrairement à l'Afrique du Sud et au Nigéria, les effets directs de la pandémie sur le ralentissement de son économie ne sont pas aussi importants que dans d'autres États africains. Au Kenya, le nombre de décès par effet corona a été beaucoup plus faible que pour la pandémie de SRAS de 2003, mais la transmission du virus COVID-19 a été nettement plus importante. Néanmoins, de nombreux Kenyans ont vu le Brexit comme une bénédiction déguisée car ils portaient leur espoir sur le IDE massif des investisseurs britanniques. En tout état de cause, il est clair, sans aucun doute, que ceux qui souffriront le plus des effets combinés de la pandémie corona et du Brexit en Afrique (et vraisemblablement dans le monde entier) sont les pauvres et les vulnérables.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Cai Li ◽  
Agyemang Kwasi Sampene ◽  
Fredrick Oteng Agyeman ◽  
Brenya Robert ◽  
Abraham Lincoln Ayisi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
World Health ◽  
To Come ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Death Cases

Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study’s selected countries.

scholarly journals The impact of Brexit on Africa in times of the Corona Crisis - The case of South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Kohnert
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Afrique Subsaharienne ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Secteur Informel ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

ABSTRACT & RÉSUMÉ : Although Britain has been so far the hardest hit among the EU member states by the corona pandemic, Johnson persists to leave the EU at the end of 2020, whatever the cost. Presumably, the pandemic will have a by far bigger impact on the UK African trade than a no-deal Brexit. In Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa had been arguably the hardest hit country both by Brexit and Corona. However, the poor, mainly working in the informal sector, were more concerned about the economic impact of the pandemic than the disease itself. In Nigeria, many people envisaged Corona as a plague of the rich and the elite. President Buhari shared the hubris of many British that they are less vulnerable to the pandemic and could continue with high-flying Post-Brexit plans. Ghana counts among those countries in Sub-Sahara Africa which has been most severely hit by the corona pandemic. But unlike South Africa and Nigeria, the direct effects of the pandemic on the downturn of its economy are not as significant as in other African states. In Kenya the number of corona-death had been much lower than for the SARS pandemic of 2003, but the transmission of the COVID-19 virus had been significantly greater. Nevertheless, many Kenyan’s saw the Brexit as a disguised blessing because they pined their hope on massive FDI by UK investors. In any case, it is clear beyond doubt that those who are to suffer most by the combined effects of the corona-pandemic and Brexit in Africa (and presumably world-wide) are the poor and vulnerable. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RÉSUMÉ : Bien que la Grande-Bretagne ait jusqu'à présent été la plus durement touchée par la pandémie corona parmi les États membres de l'UE, Johnson persiste à quitter l'UE fin 2020, quel qu'en soit le coût. Vraisemblablement, la pandémie aura un impact beaucoup plus important sur le commerce africain du Royaume-Uni qu'un Brexit sans accord. En Afrique subsaharienne, l'Afrique du Sud a probablement été le pays le plus durement touché par le Brexit et Corona. Cependant, les pauvres, travaillant principalement dans le secteur informel, étaient plus préoccupés par l'impact économique de la pandémie que par la maladie elle-même. Au Nigéria, beaucoup de gens considéraient Corona comme un fléau pour les riches et l'élite. Le président Buhari a partagé l'orgueil de nombreux Britanniques selon lesquels ils sont moins vulnérables à la pandémie et pourraient continuer avec des plans de haut vol après le Brexit. Le Ghana compte parmi les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne qui ont été les plus durement touchés par la pandémie de corona. Mais contrairement à l'Afrique du Sud et au Nigéria, les effets directs de la pandémie sur le ralentissement de son économie ne sont pas aussi importants que dans d'autres États africains. Au Kenya, le nombre de décès par effet corona a été beaucoup plus faible que pour la pandémie de SRAS de 2003, mais la transmission du virus COVID-19 a été nettement plus importante. Néanmoins, de nombreux Kenyans ont vu le Brexit comme une bénédiction déguisée car ils portaient leur espoir sur le IDE massif des investisseurs britanniques. En tout état de cause, il est clair, sans aucun doute, que ceux qui souffriront le plus des effets combinés de la pandémie corona et du Brexit en Afrique (et vraisemblablement dans le monde entier) sont les pauvres et les vulnérables.

International Listening Post report summary: the world at the dawn of 2019

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-124
Author(s):  
Sandy Henderson ◽  
Ulrike Beland ◽  
Dimitrios Vonofakos
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Faroe Islands ◽  
The South ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

On or around 9 January 2019, twenty-two Listening Posts were conducted in nineteen countries: Canada, Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, Germany (Frankfurt and Berlin), Hungary, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy (two in Milan and one in the South), Peru, Serbia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, and the UK. This report synthesises the reports of those Listening Posts and organises the data yielded by them into common themes and patterns.

Dilution studies on three marine outfalls in South Africa

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-304
Author(s):  
Willem A. M. Botes ◽  
J. F. Kapp
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Feasibility Studies ◽  
The South ◽  
Average Current ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Prediction Techniques ◽  
Domestic Effluent

Field dilution studies were conducted on three “deep” water marine outfalls located along the South African coast to establish the comparibility of actual achievable initial dilutions against the theoretical predicted values and, where appropriate, to make recommendations regarding the applicability of the different prediction techniques in the design of future outfalls. The physical processes along the 3000 km long coastline of South Africa are diverse, ranging from dynamic sub-tropical waters on the east coast to cold, stratified stagnant conditions on the west coast. Fourteen existing offshore marine outfalls serve medium to large industries and various local authorities (domestic effluent). For this investigation three outfalls were selected to represent the range of outfall types as well as the diversity of the physical conditions of the South African coastline. The predicted dilutions, using various approaches, compared well with the measured dilutions. It was found that the application of more “simple” prediction techniques (using average current velocities and ambient densities) may be more practical, ensuring a conservative approach, in pre-feasibility studies, compared to the more detailed prediction models, which uses accurate field data (stratification and current profiles), when extensive field data is not readily available.

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