scholarly journals Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths ◽  
Ben Swallow ◽  
Robert Hinch ◽  
Jamie A Cohen ◽  
Katherine Rosenfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and calibration of an stochastic agent-based model Covasim to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. We used these estimates in Covasim (calibrated between September 01, 2020 and June 20, 2021), in June 2021, to explore whether planned relaxation of restrictions should proceed or be delayed. We found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination.

scholarly journals Perancangan dan Pembuatan Serious Game Sebagai Simulasi Aktivitas Bisnis dan Akuntansi Menggunakan Pendekatan Agent-Based Modelling

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Angga Ari Wijaya ◽  
Saiful Bukhori ◽  
Nelly Oktavia
Keyword(s):  
Personality Trait ◽  
Finite State Machine ◽  
State Machine ◽  
Serious Game ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Rule Based System ◽  
Finite State

Permainan memiliki efek positif dalam mendukung kemampuan motorik seseorang untuk berkembang. Salah satu bahasan menarik dalam permainan adalah simulasi bisnis yang memiliki kategori serious game untuk dijadikan alternatif media pembelajaran dalam memahami konsep dasar bisnis dan aktivitas akuntansi. Gameplay dibuat dengan menciptakan artificial bisnis level UKM yang melakukan aktivitas jual beli, dimana di dalamnya terdapat game world, pelanggan dan toko yang berinteraksi untuk menghasilkan fenomena sebuah pasar. Aktivitas jual beli menjadi dasar siklus akuntansi untuk pemain belajar dan memahami kejadian finansial. Setiap agent diberi attribute yang digunakan sebagai parameter untuk membentuk personality-trait dan pengambilan keputusan pembelian serta aktivitas yang membentuk tingkah laku sehari - hari melalui State Machine dan Rule Based System (RBS). Simulasi perilaku konsumen dalam pasar virtual digunakan sebagai trigger aktivitas utama bisnis yaitu transaksi penjualan. Kejadian finansial yang terjadi dari proses simulasi menghasilkan proses jurnal untuk memberikan pemain pengalaman dalam memproses transaksi dengan contoh sumber aktivitas buatan.Kata Kunci: Serious Game, Perilaku Konsumen, Agent-based Model, A Star, Stack Finite State Machine, Rule-Based System.

Agent-based modelling of interstellar contacts using rumour spread models

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 423-429
Author(s):  
Tevfik Uyar ◽  
Mehmet Emin Özel
Keyword(s):  
Communication Network ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Stop Criterion ◽  
Interstellar Communication ◽  
Set Up

AbstractSome stochastic model of rumours asserts that even an advanced communication network does not guarantee every agent hears certain news because they predict that rumour spreaders convert to stifflers when contacted with an informed agent. In this study, we adapted two rumour spread models to interstellar communication by developing an agent-based model (ABM) for exploring the issue more rigorously. We enhanced the spread models by adding two additional parameters called conversion probability and stop-criterion, which represent the eagerness and persistency of civilizations to establish new contacts. Results of the ABM under several settings suggest that limited SETI searches lead to undiscovered civilizations. Earth may be one of these undiscovered civilizations although an advanced communication network might already be set up. Hence, we speculate that rumour spread models can propose another solution to Fermi's Paradox.

scholarly journals Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Darren Lumbroso ◽  
Mark Davison ◽  
Richard Body ◽  
Gregor Petkovšek
Keyword(s):  
Mining Waste ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Tailings Dam ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Tailings Dams ◽  
Subsequent Loss

Abstract. In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed, releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 107 m3 of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed, the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risks posed by them in the future.

scholarly journals Development of an agent based model illustrating the usage of deferred acceptance algorithm in the admission process

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Bhatia ◽  
Chetan Sharma ◽  
Rinkaj Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Admission Process ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Stable Allocation ◽  
Deferred Acceptance Algorithm ◽  
Deferred Acceptance

Agent based modelling framework successfully models real life problems that support simulation with diverse strategies and mechanisms devoid of the restrictions set by mathematical tractability. Union of game theory and agent based modelling has elucidated the dynamics of different social and economic scenarios. In this study, we present our efforts to develop an agent based model through embracing a customized version of the deferred acceptance algorithm. This study considers two widely adopted admission process scenarios i.e. partially and fully centralized as a case study, wherein a University acts as a nodal bureau and admits students to affiliated colleges. In this paper, an agent based model has been developed in the Netlogo simulation environment, which advocates fully centralized procedure and simulates deferred acceptance algorithm. The simulation results in a strategy-proof, optimum and stable allocation of available seats in the admission process.

scholarly journals Agent-gebaseerde modellering in de historische taalkunde

1970 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
Dirk Pijpops ◽  
Katrien Beuls
Keyword(s):  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Verb Inflection

This article presents an accessible introduction to agent-based modelling for non-computationallinguists, more specifically historical linguists, who may find it to be a usefuladdition to their methodological toolbox. We will discuss both the possibilities and limitationsof this technique and in doing so, attempt to show how computational modellingcan be complementary with the empirical methods of historical linguists. Furthermore,this paper presents a walkthrough of the various steps in the design of such a model. Toserve as an example, we will present a basic agent-based model of the competitionbetween regular and irregular verb inflection in Dutch.

scholarly journals Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren Lumbroso ◽  
Mark Davison ◽  
Richard Body ◽  
Gregor Petkovšek
Keyword(s):  
Mining Waste ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Tailings Dam ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Tailings Dams ◽  
Subsequent Loss

Abstract. In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 10 million m3 of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risk posed by them in the future.

scholarly journals Development of an agent based model illustrating the usage of deferred acceptance algorithm in the admission process

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Bhatia ◽  
Chetan Sharma ◽  
Rinkaj Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Admission Process ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Stable Allocation ◽  
Deferred Acceptance Algorithm ◽  
Deferred Acceptance

Agent based modelling framework successfully models real life problems that support simulation with diverse strategies and mechanisms devoid of the restrictions set by mathematical tractability. Union of game theory and agent based modelling has elucidated the dynamics of different social and economic scenarios. In this study, we present our efforts to develop an agent based model through embracing a customized version of the deferred acceptance algorithm. This study considers two widely adopted admission process scenarios i.e. partially and fully centralized as a case study, wherein a University acts as a nodal bureau and admits students to affiliated colleges. In this paper, an agent based model has been developed in the Netlogo simulation environment, which advocates fully centralized procedure and simulates deferred acceptance algorithm. The simulation results in a strategy-proof, optimum and stable allocation of available seats in the admission process.

Simulations of an Agent-Based Model that Consists of a Large Number of Agents Moving Stochastically in a Wide Bounded Domain

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minoru Tabata ◽  
Akira Ide ◽  
Nobuoki Eshima ◽  
Kyushu Takagi ◽  
Yasuhiro Takei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bounded Domain ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based
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