scholarly journals Co-designed land-use scenarios and their implications for storm runoff and streamflow in New England

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Guswa ◽  
Brian Hall ◽  
Chingwen Cheng ◽  
Jonathan R. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
New England ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Storm Runoff ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

AbstractFuture changes in both landscape and climate have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios on water-related ecosystem services, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the overall water balance but did affect high flows and the relative contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most of the scenarios, the effect was small and less than the effect due to climate change. For one scenario – envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural-resource innovation – the effects of land-use changes were comparable to the effects due to climate. For that scenario, changes to the landscape increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5-15% increase attributable to climate change. These results, which were consistent across both watersheds, can help inform planning and policies regarding land use, development, and maintenance of hydrologic ecosystem services.Research highlightsStakeholder-engaged scenarios provide meaningful and plausible futures for the New England landscape and assessment of effects of land-use change on storm runoff and streamflowEffects of land use on the overall water balance are small across the landscape scenariosFuture land-use change has the potential to affect storm runoff and high flows to a degree that is comparable to the effects due to changes in climate in 2060The degree of natural resource innovation affects storm runoff and high flows when population growth is large and has a negligible effect when population growth is low

scholarly journals Forecasting the Effects of Land Use Scenarios on Farmland Birds Reveal a Potential Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts

PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. e0117850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Princé ◽  
Romain Lorrillière ◽  
Morgane Barbet-Massin ◽  
François Léger ◽  
Frédéric Jiguet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Farmland Birds ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

scholarly journals Co-designed Land-use Scenarios and their Implications for Storm Runoff and Streamflow in New England

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 785-800
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Guswa ◽  
Brian Hall ◽  
Chingwen Cheng ◽  
Jonathan R. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New England ◽  
Storm Runoff ◽  
Land Use Scenarios

scholarly journals Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-Dominated Watershed under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Thellmann ◽  
Reza Golbon ◽  
Marc Cotter ◽  
Georg Cadisch ◽  
Folkard Asch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Sediment Export ◽  
Model Water

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available.

Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes

2019 ◽  
Vol 685 ◽  
pp. 1181-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Clerici ◽  
Fabian Cote-Navarro ◽  
Francisco J. Escobedo ◽  
Kristian Rubiano ◽  
Juan Camilo Villegas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Cumulative Effects ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Colombian Andes ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 102310
Author(s):  
Meghan Graham MacLean ◽  
Matthew J. Duveneck ◽  
Joshua Plisinski ◽  
Luca L. Morreale ◽  
Danelle Laflower ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New England ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Land Use Scenarios

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4537-4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Sensitivity Analysis with Calibration of Natural Resource Variables under Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 681-691
Author(s):  
Nilanjan Ghosh ◽  
Somnath Hazra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Human Economy ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This chapter compares two quantitative frameworks, namely, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Econometric models to study the impacts of climate change on human economy. However, as is inferred from this chapter, CGE framework is fraught with unrealistic assumptions, and fails to capture impacts of climate change and extreme events on the ecosystem services. On the other hand, econometric framework can be customised and is not based on the unrealistic assumptions like CGE. The various advantages and disadvantages of the two methods have been discussed critically in the process in this chapter in light of the avowed objective of understanding sustainability science.

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