scholarly journals Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-Dominated Watershed under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Thellmann ◽  
Reza Golbon ◽  
Marc Cotter ◽  
Georg Cadisch ◽  
Folkard Asch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Sediment Export ◽  
Model Water

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 7849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang-Jie Wang ◽  
Shuai Ma ◽  
Yong-Peng Qiao ◽  
Jin-Chi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Ecological Restoration ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Trade Offs

Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4537-4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

scholarly journals A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyeJin Kim ◽  
Isabel M. D. Rosa ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Paul Leadley ◽  
George Hurtt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Global Impacts

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

scholarly journals Climate change and elevated CO<sub>2</sub> favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dushyant Kumar ◽  
Mirjam Pfeiffer ◽  
Camille Gaillard ◽  
Liam Langan ◽  
Simon Scheiter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Canopy Cover ◽  
Evergreen Forest ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Fertilization

Abstract. South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the region and its 1.7 billion inhabitants that are closely linked to its land-use forms and carbon storage potential. Yet, biodiversity is threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. A failure to react to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the aDGVM2 to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The model predicted changes in above ground biomass and canopy cover that trigger biome transition towards tree-dominated systems. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. C3 photosynthesis dependent vegetation was not saturated at current CO2 concentrations and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region will likely remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and eCO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate-vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Spatiotemporal Hotspots of Hydrologic Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Chinan Catchment, Taiwan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Chun Peng ◽  
Yu-Pin Lin ◽  
Guan-Wei Chen ◽  
Wan-Yu Lien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Integrated Valuation ◽  
Sediment Export ◽  
The Impact

Hydrologic ecosystem services are greatly affected by the changing climate. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to quantify hydrologic ecosystem services. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were selected to estimate hydrologic ecosystem services. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) index was used to identify hydrologic ecosystem hotspots. The hotspots were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the services. Results indicate that annual water yields vary from −17% to 8%, with significant intra-year fluctuation. Compared to baseline data, the CESM1-CAM5 predicts an increase of 45% in June, but HadGEM2-AO predicts a drop to only 12% in January. Sediment export results show a similar trend to water yield, with sediment export increasing significantly under RCP 8.5, and monthly sediment export increases concentrated from June and October. Nitrogen and phosphorous exports both show less significant changes but obvious intra-year variations. The CESM1-CAM5 predicts strong seasonal and spatial variation of the hydrologic ecosystem services. Our proposed approach successfully identifies annual and monthly hotspot spatial changes of hydrologic ecosystem services under climate change.

Issues and pressures facing the future of soil carbon stocks with particular emphasis on Scottish soils

2013 ◽  
Vol 152 (5) ◽  
pp. 699-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. BUCKINGHAM ◽  
R. M. REES ◽  
C. A. WATSON
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Organic Soils ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Soil C ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

SUMMARYSoil organic carbon (C) plays a critical role in supporting the productive capacity of soils and their ability to provide a wide range of ecologically important functions including the storage of atmospherically derived carbon dioxide (CO2). The present paper collates available information on Scottish soil C stocks and C losses and reviews the potential pressures on terrestrial C, which may threaten future C stocks. Past, present and possible future land use, land management practices and land use changes (LUCs) including forestry, agriculture, nitrogen (N) additions, elevated CO2 and climate change for Scotland are discussed and evaluated in relation to the anthropogenic pressures on soil C.The review deduces that current available data show little suggestion of significant changes in C stocks of Scottish soils, although this may be due to a lack of long-term trend data. However, it can be concluded that there are many pressures, such as climate change, intensity of land use practices, scale of LUC, soil erosion and pollution, which may pose significant threats to the future of Scottish soil C if these factors are not taken into consideration in future land management decisions. In particular, this is due to the land area covered by vulnerable peats and highly organic soils in Scotland compared with other areas in the UK. It is therefore imperative that soil C stocks for different land use, management practices and LUCs are monitored in more detail to provide further insight into the potential changes in sequestered C and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions, as advised by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

scholarly journals Modeling the Production of Multiple Ecosystem Services from Agricultural and Forest Landscapes in Rhode Island

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Liu ◽  
Nathaniel H. Merrill ◽  
Arthur J. Gold ◽  
Dorothy Q. Kellogg ◽  
Emi Uchida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Rhode Island ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Change Climate

This study spatially quantifies hydrological ecosystem services and the production of ecosystem services at the watershed scale. We also investigate the effects of stressors such as land use change, climate change, and choices in land management practices on production of ecosystem services and their values. We demonstrate the approach in the Beaver River watershed in Rhode Island. Our key finding is that choices in land use and land management practices create tradeoffs across multiple ecosystem services and the extent of these tradeoffs depends considerably on the scenarios and ecosystem services being compared.

scholarly journals Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Quilbé ◽  
A. N. Rousseau ◽  
J.-S. Moquet ◽  
S. Savary ◽  
S. Ricard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Key Factor

Abstract. Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

scholarly journals Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on the Key Ecosystem Services in the Hengduan Mountain Region, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erfu Dai ◽  
Le Yin ◽  
Yahui Wang ◽  
Liang Ma ◽  
Miao Tong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Hengduan Mountain ◽  
The Impact

In the Hengduan Mountain region, soil erosion is the most serious ecological environmental problem. Understanding the impact mechanism of water yield and soil erosion is essential to optimize ecosystem management and improve ecosystem services. This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) models to separate the relative contributions of land use and climate change to water yield and soil erosion. The results revealed that: (1) Although soil and water conservation has been strengthened in the past 25 years, both water yield and soil erosion increased from 2010 to 2015 due to the conversion of woodland to grassland, which indicates that continuous benefits after the implementation of ecological restoration projects were not obtained; (2) Climate change played a decisive role in water yield and soil erosion changes in the Hengduan Mountain region from 1990 to 2015, and soil erosion was not only related to the amount of precipitation but also closely related to precipitation intensity; (3) The contribution of land use and climate change to water yield was 26.94% and 73.06%, while for soil erosion, the contribution of land use and climate change was 16.23% and 83.77%, respectively.

scholarly journals Co-designed land-use scenarios and their implications for storm runoff and streamflow in New England

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Guswa ◽  
Brian Hall ◽  
Chingwen Cheng ◽  
Jonathan R. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
New England ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Storm Runoff ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

AbstractFuture changes in both landscape and climate have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios on water-related ecosystem services, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the overall water balance but did affect high flows and the relative contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most of the scenarios, the effect was small and less than the effect due to climate change. For one scenario – envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural-resource innovation – the effects of land-use changes were comparable to the effects due to climate. For that scenario, changes to the landscape increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5-15% increase attributable to climate change. These results, which were consistent across both watersheds, can help inform planning and policies regarding land use, development, and maintenance of hydrologic ecosystem services.Research highlightsStakeholder-engaged scenarios provide meaningful and plausible futures for the New England landscape and assessment of effects of land-use change on storm runoff and streamflowEffects of land use on the overall water balance are small across the landscape scenariosFuture land-use change has the potential to affect storm runoff and high flows to a degree that is comparable to the effects due to changes in climate in 2060The degree of natural resource innovation affects storm runoff and high flows when population growth is large and has a negligible effect when population growth is low

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