Towards a history of Holocene P dynamics for the Northern Hemisphere using lake sediment geochemical records

Present-day lake water phosphorus (P) enrichment and accelerated P cycling are changes superimposed on a dynamic Holocene history of landscape development following glaciation, changes in climate, and long-term low-intensity human activity. Knowledge of the history of long-term P dynamics is essential for understanding present-day landscape P export and for managing both terrestrial and aquatic environments. This study is the first attempt to constrain the timing and magnitude of terrestrial changes in Holocene P dynamics across the Northern Hemisphere using lake sediment records. Here we reconstruct trajectories in terrestrial Holocene P dynamics for the Northern Hemisphere. We apply a simple process model to published lake sediment geochemical P records from 24 sites, producing records of landscape P yield and reconstructing lake water total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. Individual site trajectories of landscape P yield and lake water TP vary systematically, with differences attributable to local landscape development history. Three distinct traits are apparent. Mountain sites with minimal direct human impact show falling P supply and conform to conceptual models of natural soil development (Trait 1). Lowland sites where substantial (pre-)historic agriculture was present show progressively increasing P supply (Trait 2). Lowland sites may also show a rapid acceleration in P supply over the last few centuries, where high-intensity land use, including settlements and farming, is present (Trait 3). Where data availability permitted comparison, our reconstructed TP records agree well with monitored lake water TP data, and our sediment-inferred P yields are comparable to reported catchment export coefficients. Comparison with diatom-inferred TP reveals good agreement for recent records. Our reconstructions form the first systematic assessment of average terrestrial P export for the Northern Hemisphere over the Holocene and provide the empirical data needed for constraining long-term landscape P cycling models and values for terrestrial P export that could be used for ocean P cycling models. The long-term perspective provided by our sediment-inferred TP can be used to identify pre-disturbance baselines for lake water quality, information essential to target-driven lake management. We find the first detectable anthropogenic impacts on P cycling ca. 6000 BP, with more substantial impacts as early as 3000 BP. Consequently, to characterize pre-disturbance lake P conditions at Trait 2 and Trait 3 sites, it is necessary to consider time periods before the arrival of early farmers. Our use of trait classifications has a predictive power for sites without sediment records, allowing prediction of TP baselines and P trajectories based on regional landscape development history.

Simulated range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes to extended lakes and wetlands over North Africa

Enhanced summer insolation over North Africa induced a monsoon precipitation increase during the mid-Holocene, about 6000 years ago, and led to a widespread expansion of lakes and wetlands in the present-day Sahara. This expansion of lakes and wetlands is documented in paleoenvironmental sediment records, but the spatially sparse and often discontinuous sediment records provide only a fragmentary picture. Former simulation studies prescribed either a small lake and wetland extent from reconstructions or focused on documented mega-lakes only to investigate their effect on the mid-Holocene climate. In contrast to these studies, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes in response to a small lake extent and a potential maximum lake and wetland extent. Results show that the maximum lake and wetland extent shift the North African rain belt about 3 ° farther northward than the small lake extent. Vegetated wetlands cause a larger precipitation increase than the equally-large lakes due to their high surface roughness. A moisture budget analysis reveals that both, lakes and wetlands, cause an enhanced inland moisture transport and local moisture recycling to their southern side. In contrast, increased moisture advection by the Harmattan winds causes a drying response to the north of the lakes and wetlands. These results indicate that the latitudinal position of the lakes and wetlands influences the northward extension of the African summer monsoon. In the sensitivity experiments, the northern position of West Saharan lakes and wetlands substantially contributes to the strong monsoon northward shift seen in the maximum lake and wetland simulations.

On the tuning of plateaus in atmospheric and oceanic ¹⁴C records to derive calendar chronologies of deep-sea cores and records of ¹⁴C marine reservoir age changes

We assess the methodology of the so-called 14C plateau tuning (PT) technique used to date marine sediment records and determine 14C marine reservoir ages (MRAs) as recently reviewed by Sarnthein et al. (2020). The main identified problems are linked to the assumption of constant MRA during 14C age plateaus; the lack of consideration of foraminifera abundance changes coupled to bioturbation that can create spurious plateaus in marine sediments; the assumption that plateaus have the same shapes and durations in atmospheric and oceanic records; the implication that atmospheric 14C / 12C peaked instantaneously from one plateau to the next; that the 14C plateaus represent 82 % of the total time spent between 14 000 and 29 000 cal yr BP, whereas during the remaining 18 % of the time, the radiocarbon clock was running almost 5 times faster than the radioactive decay; that the sparsity, combined with the level of analytical uncertainties and additional noise, in both atmospheric and marine data do not currently allow one to reliably or robustly identify plateaus (should they exist) beyond 15 000 cal yr BP; and that the determination and identification of plateaus in the deep-sea cores is reliant upon significant changes in sedimentation rate within those marine sediments which are, a priori, unknown and are not verified with an independent method. The concerns we raise are supported and strengthened with carbon cycle box model experiments and statistical simulations of pseudo-atmospheric and pseudo-marine records, allowing us to question the ability to identify and tune 14C age plateaus in the context of noisy and sparse data.