scholarly journals Critical transitions in heterogeneous networks: Loss of low-degree nodes as an early warning signal

2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Loppini ◽  
Simonetta Filippi ◽  
H. Eugene Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Heterogeneous Networks ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Low Degree

scholarly journals A closed form for Jacobian reconstruction from time series and its application as an early warning signal in network dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 477 (2247) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund Barter ◽  
Andreas Brechtel ◽  
Barbara Drossel ◽  
Thilo Gross
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Closed Form ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Jacobian Matrix ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Closed Form Analytical Solution ◽  
Mathematical Analyses

The Jacobian matrix of a dynamical system describes its response to perturbations. Conversely, one can estimate the Jacobian matrix by carefully monitoring how the system responds to environmental noise. We present a closed-form analytical solution for the calculation of a system’s Jacobian from a time series. Being able to access the Jacobian enables a broad range of mathematical analyses by which deeper insights into the system can be gained. Here we consider in particular the computation of the leading Jacobian eigenvalue as an early warning signal for critical transitions. To illustrate this approach, we apply it to ecological meta-foodweb models, which are strongly nonlinear dynamical multi-layer networks. Our analysis shows that accurate results can be obtained, although the data demand of the method is still high.

scholarly journals Impression Offsetting as an Early Warning Signal of Low CEO Confidence in Acquisitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1307-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Gamache ◽  
Gerry McNamara ◽  
Scott D. Graffin ◽  
Jason Kiley ◽  
Jerayr Haleblian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Chemoecology ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meaghan A. Vavrek ◽  
Chris K. Elvidge ◽  
Robert DeCaire ◽  
Brenna Belland ◽  
Christopher D. Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Convict Cichlids ◽  
Disturbance Cues

scholarly journals Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 105 (38) ◽  
pp. 14308-14312 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Dakos ◽  
M. Scheffer ◽  
E. H. van Nes ◽  
V. Brovkin ◽  
V. Petoukhov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1659) ◽  
pp. 20130263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Dakos ◽  
Stephen R. Carpenter ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Marten Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Small Perturbations ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Resilience Indicators

In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

scholarly journals Flickering as an early warning signal

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Dakos ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Marten Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Ceriani ◽  
Carlos Hernandez-Suarez ◽  
Paolo Verme
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
Reliable Predictor ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Effect Model

AbstractThe paper provides some initial evidence that daily mortality rates (for any cause) by municipality or province can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming COVID-19 crises. Using recently published deaths figures for 1,689 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015–2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major COVID-19 shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in early February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using a panel fixed effect model, we show that the association between these early increases in mortality for any cause and the March 2020 COVID-19 shock is strong and significant. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of COVID-19 crises.

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