Investment risk management in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) using technique of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Farid ◽  
Alireza Rajabipoor Meybodi ◽  
Seyed Heydar Mirfakhraddiny
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor ◽  
Maria Tudor

This chapter covers the essentials of using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique (MSC) for project schedule and cost risk analysis. It offers a description of the steps involved in performing a Monte Carlo simulation and provides the basic probability and statistical concepts that MSC is based on. Further, a simple practical spreadsheet example goes through the steps presented before to show how MCS can be used in practice to assess the cost and duration risk of a project and ultimately to enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgments.


Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Fang ◽  
Xiaohu Li

Co-risk measures and risk contribution measures have been introduced to evaluate the degree of interaction between paired risks in actuarial risk management. This paper attempts to study the ordering behavior of measures on interaction between paired risks. For various co-risk measures and risk contribution measures, we investigate how the marginal distributions and the dependence structure impact on the level of interaction between paired risks. Also, several numerical examples based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented to illustrate the main findings.


2011 ◽  
Vol 282-283 ◽  
pp. 342-345
Author(s):  
Bo Zhang

Advantages and disad vantages of every kind of risk decision methods are analysed in this paper with a risk controlling form. The method of engineering project investment risk decision synthesized by CIM model and Monte-Carlo simulation is proved feasible and effective by the conclusion of the simulation case of certain port with the software crystal ball7.22.


2012 ◽  
Vol 442 ◽  
pp. 341-345
Author(s):  
Si Dong Xu ◽  
Xiao Li Cai ◽  
Wei Liu

A lot of risks of management occur under the process of the construction project, and it will always bring more tremendous negative influence to the project goal. Therefore, there should have the effective risk method for the project superintendent to forecast the risk occurrence and reduce the loss which the risk brings. There are lots of methods about risks management under the process of the construction project at present and most of the method emphasize particularly on qualitative analysis. This article presents a method which base on the knowledge of Monte Carlo Simulation. It will combine the qualitative analysis and quantitative research and puts forward a new solution.


2012 ◽  
Vol 174-177 ◽  
pp. 3219-3222
Author(s):  
Hui Chen

Practical risk purchasing management method of engineering materials is put forward by using Monte Carlo Simulation. First, the calculation method of economic order quantity is put forward based on rising price. Second, appropriate insurance inventory is calculated when material requirements is variable.


2014 ◽  
Vol 584-586 ◽  
pp. 2363-2367
Author(s):  
Zeng Zhong Wang ◽  
Bin Shi

Construction management is the totality of activities that address the managerial and technological aspects of highway construction, conducted during the planning, design, construction, and post-construction phases of the project, for the purpose of achieving scope, quality level, cost, schedule and other project performance objectives. The ability to better understand potential risks and how to manage those yields benefits far in excess of the costs of adopting risk management practices. In this paper, the most common set of processes including risk identification, assessment, analysis, mitigation, allocation, monitoring and updating are discussed, and the relationship between the computational method (the model) and its required inputs and available outputs is illustrated. The methodology and systematic process of probabilistic risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation methods is conducted, and a comprehensive case study of probabilistic risk analysis for a highway construction management is given out, in which the sensitivity analysis and other output from the simulation model are illustrated to support the risk management plan. It is obviously that the probabilistic risk analysis of Monte Carlo simulation could provide very important information for a decision maker.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document