The Research of Construction Project Risk Management Based on Monte Carlo Method and Fuzzy Mathematics

2012 ◽  
Vol 442 ◽  
pp. 341-345
Author(s):  
Si Dong Xu ◽  
Xiao Li Cai ◽  
Wei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematics ◽  
Project Risk

A lot of risks of management occur under the process of the construction project, and it will always bring more tremendous negative influence to the project goal. Therefore, there should have the effective risk method for the project superintendent to forecast the risk occurrence and reduce the loss which the risk brings. There are lots of methods about risks management under the process of the construction project at present and most of the method emphasize particularly on qualitative analysis. This article presents a method which base on the knowledge of Monte Carlo Simulation. It will combine the qualitative analysis and quantitative research and puts forward a new solution.

On Using Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Risk Management

2016 ◽  
pp. 150-173
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor ◽  
Maria Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Cost

This chapter covers the essentials of using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique (MSC) for project schedule and cost risk analysis. It offers a description of the steps involved in performing a Monte Carlo simulation and provides the basic probability and statistical concepts that MSC is based on. Further, a simple practical spreadsheet example goes through the steps presented before to show how MCS can be used in practice to assess the cost and duration risk of a project and ultimately to enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgments.

scholarly journals Simulasi Penjadwalan Proyek Pembangunan Jembatan Gantung dengan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 36-42
Author(s):  
Julius Santony
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Suspension Bridge ◽  
Work Schedule ◽  
Bridge Construction ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Construction Activity

The scheduling of a suspension bridge construction project is very influential in determining the success of construction which has risks and uncertainties in the construction of a suspension bridge. So we need a suspension bridge project scheduling to predict the work schedule for each suspension bridge construction activity. To overcome all the risks and uncertainties in the construction of a suspension bridge, a Monte Carlo method simulation is needed to process 10 activities in a suspension bridge construction project. The accuracy rate using Monte Carlo simulation is 93.99% for predictions for 2017, 2018 for 98.77% and 86.75% for 2019. So this Monte Carlo simulation can be used in predicting the scheduling of a suspension bridge construction project.

scholarly journals Risk management of a torrential flood construction project using the Monte Carlo simulation

2016 ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Baumgertel ◽  
Nada Dragovic ◽  
Tijana Vulevic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Flow Profile ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relevant Variables

Projects for the regulation of torrent basins carry various unforeseen adverse effects that may result in breached deadlines, increased costs, a reduction of quality etc. The paper presents the basic characteristics and most frequent risks associated with erosion control. Furthermore, it provides an overview of risk management through its basic stages - starting from risk identification and risk analysis to risk responses, including the methods used for risk analysis. As a part of quantitative methods for risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method is presented as the one most frequently used in simulations. The Monte Carlo method is a stochastic simulation method consisting of the following stages: the identification of criterion and relevant variables, the allocation of probability for relevant variables, the determination of correlation coefficient among relevant variables, simulation execution and result analysis. This method was applied in the analysis of the total cost of the project for the basin regulation of the Dumaca River in order to determine the funding that would be used as a backup in case of unforeseen events with a negative impact. The project for the regulation of the Dumaca River includes basin regulation in the form of complex flow profile and the lining of zones where necessary in terms of stability. The total cost is presented as a sum of costs of all works (preliminary works, earthworks, masonry works, concrete works and finishing works). The Monte Carlo simulation for cost analysis is carried out using the Oracle Crystal Ball software with its basic steps described in the paper. A sum of funding needed as a financial backup in case of unforeseen events with negative effects is obtained as the simulated total cost of the project.

scholarly journals PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION AND EXCEL

2010 ◽  
pp. 362-367
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Tysiak ◽  
Alexander Sereseanu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Main Task ◽  
It Projects ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Standard Product

In every project, especially in software and IT projects, there is the need to perform an elaborated risk management. One main task that often causes problems is the quantitative risk analysis. In this article we will show how to deal with this by using a well-known standard product: EXCEL.

scholarly journals A DEEPER INSIGHT IN SOME EFFECTS IN PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

2014 ◽  
pp. 214-220
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Tysiak
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Program Evaluation ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Time Schedule ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Popular Approach ◽  
Project Plan

This document shows a possible way how to deal with insecurities in the time schedule of a project plan. It shows that Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), the most popular approach to handle this, bears some severe disadvantages. Furthermore it offers an alternative to overcome them by using Monte Carlo simulation. Finally it can be claimed that a complete change of paradigm is necessary: If you have any insecurities as inputs, everything becomes insecure. This might on the first sight convey the impression that the whole situation converts more complex, but we should rather accept this as the opportunity to apply all the well-known instruments from statistics.

scholarly journals Technical-Economic Analysis of Grapple Saw

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Hideaki Miyajima ◽  
Paulo Torres Fenner ◽  
Gislaine Cristina Batistela ◽  
Danilo Simões
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Forest Harvesting ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Wood Harvesting ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The processing of Eucalyptus logs is a stage that follows the full tree system in mechanized forest harvesting, commonly performed by grapple saw. Therefore, this activity presents some associated uncertainties, especially regarding technical and silvicultural factors that can affect productivity and production costs. To get around this problem, Monte Carlo simulation can be applied, or rather a technique that allows to measure the probabilities of values from factors that are under conditions of uncertainties, to which probability distributions are attributed. The objective of this study was to apply the Monte Carlo method for determining the probabilistic technical-economical coefficients of log processing using two different grapple saw models. Field data were obtained from an area of forest planted with Eucalyptus, located in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. For the technical analysis, the time study protocol was applied by the method of continuous reading of the operational cycle elements, which resulted in production. As for the estimated cost of programmed hour, the applied methods were recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The incorporation of the uncertainties was carried out by applying the Monte Carlo simulation method, by which 100,000 random values were generated. The results showed that the crane empty movement is the operational element that most impacts the total time for processing the logs; the variables that most influence the productivity are specific to each grapple saw model; the difference of USD 0.04 m3 in production costs was observed between processors with gripping area of 0.58 m2 and 0.85 m2. The Monte Carlo method proved to be an applicable tool for mechanized wood harvesting for presenting a range of probability of occurrences for the operational elements and for the production cost.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo simulation of halos in the crystal clouds

2021 ◽  
Vol 2099 (1) ◽  
pp. 012067
Author(s):  
Q Mu ◽  
E G Kablukova ◽  
B A Kargin ◽  
S M Prigarin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Ray Tracing ◽  
Multiple Scattering ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Ice Crystals ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Different Shapes

Abstract In this paper, we try to answer the question: how the multiple scattering, the sun elevation, shape and orientation of ice crystals in the cirrus clouds affect a halo pattern. To study the radiation transfer in optically anisotropic clouds, we have developed the software based on Monte Carlo method and ray tracing. In addition to halos, this software enables one to simulate “anti-halos”, which above the cloud layer can be seen by observers. We present the visualization of halos and anti-halos generated by the cirrus clouds for different shapes and orientations of ice crystals.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document