Economic growth and income inequality: a non-linear econometrics analysis of the SADC region, 1990–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindokuhle Talent Zungu ◽  
Lorraine Greyling ◽  
Nkanyiso Mbatha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Transition Function ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression

PurposeThe authors investigate the growth–inequality relationship, using panel data from 13 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the period 1990–2015, to test the validity of the Kuznets and Tribble theories. Furthermore, the authors seek to determine the threshold level at which excessive growth hampers inequality.Design/methodology/approachThe panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model has several stages. The authors applied the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test to find the appropriate transition variable amongst all candidate variables, to assess the linearity between economic growth and income inequality and to find the sequence for selecting the order m of the transition function. The authors then estimated the PSTR model, but before facilitating the results, the authors first used the wild cluster bootstrap (WCB)–LM-type test to assess the appropriateness of the selected transition.FindingsThe authors found that at lower growth, income inequality tends to be lower, while if growth increases above US$8,969, inequality tends to increase in the SADC region. The findings combine into a U-shaped relationship, contradicting the Kuznets and Tribble theories.Originality/valueThe contribution of this paper is that it becomes the first to provide the threshold level at which excessive growth increases inequality in the selected countries. This study proposes that policymakers should focus on activities aimed at stimulating growth, in other words, activities such as spending more on infrastructure, drawing up a suitable investment portfolio and spending on technological investment for countries that are below US$8,969. An improvement in these activities will create job opportunities, which in turn will add to economic growth and thus lead to lower income inequality and better social cohesion.

Government size and economic growth in African emerging economies: does the BARS curve exist?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindokuhle Talent Zungu ◽  
Lorraine Greyling
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Lagrange Multiplier ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
Linearity Test

PurposeThis study is aimed at testing the validity of the BARS theory and determining the threshold level at which excessive government expenditure hampers growth. The data from 10 African emerging economies from 1988 to 2019 were used.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology comprises several different stages. In the first stage, an Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type test was employed to find the appropriate transition variable among all the candidate variables to assess the linearity between government expenditure and economic growth and to find the sequence for selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helped to identify the nature of the relationships between government expenditure and economic growth. In the second stage, the model evaluation was tested using the wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier (WCL-LM) test to assess appropriateness of the model. Thirdly, the Panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with one regime was estimated to test the validity of the BARS curve.FindingsThe results revealed evidence of nonlinear effects between government expenditure and economic growth, where the size of the government spending was found to be a 27.84% share of GDP, above which government expenditure caused growth to decline in African emerging economies. The findings combined into an inverted U-shape relationship, in line with the BARS theory.Originality/valueThis study proposes that policy-makers ought to formulate prudent fiscal policies that encourage expenditure, which would improve growth for selected countries as their current level of spending is below the threshold. This might be done through: (1) a suitable investment portfolio and (2) spending more on infrastructure.

Asymmetric and threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in SADC: a panel smooth transition regression analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Lorraine Greyling
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Asymmetric Relationships ◽  
Panel Smooth Transition Regression

PurposeThis study aims to interrogate dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth in Southern African Developing Communities (SADC), over the period 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) technique to analyse dynamic asymmetric relationships between public debt and economic growth, and the threshold effect at which public debt hampers economic growth.FindingsThe findings indicate that there is a significant nonlinear effect of debt on economic growth in SADC. The study discovered a debt threshold of 60% to GDP at which debt beyond this threshold deteriorates long-term growth. The low-debt regime was found to be positive and statistically significant, while the high-debt regime is detrimental for long-term growth. Fiscal policymakers ought to consider the adoption of well-coordinated debt policies that aims to strike a balance between sustainable public debt and economic growth, within a reasonable threshold target.Originality/valueThe study focusses on asymmetric and threshold analysis of public debt on economic growth in SADC using sophisticated panel smooth transition regression (STAR). This study provides rigorous empirical evidence within the SADC perspective in which previous studies have predominantly been confined in advanced economies.

Application of smooth transition regression (STR) model on the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 284-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mukhtar Danladi Galadima ◽  
Abubakar Wambai Aminu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of natural gas consumption that can be adjudged as capable of improving the growth of the Nigerian economy, to investigate whether natural gas consumption is at optimal level in Nigeria and to examine the nature and rate to which natural gas consumption affects economic growth in Nigeria at low and high regimes. Design/methodology/approach The tool used to achieve the objectives of the paper is the smooth transition regression (STR) model. Findings The findings of the paper are that the relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria is asymmetric, where the natural gas consumption threshold value in the country is 9085.36 standard cubic meters, whereas the level of its consumption in the country is below the optimal level. Further, in both low and high regimes, natural gas consumption has been found to have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Practical implications The policy implication of the paper is that natural gas consumption in Nigeria should not be less than 9085.36 standard cubic meters and the country should intensify efforts to increase the level of natural gas consumption, as it is below the optimal level and its consumption bolsters the growth of Nigerian economy. Originality/value What is new in this paper is its ability to use the STR model. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, such methodology has not been adopted before in such a relation.

scholarly journals Endogenous monetary approach to optimal inflation–growth nexus in Swaziland

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 559-571
Author(s):  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Threshold Estimate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression

PurposeThe purpose of our study is to examine the inflation–growth nexus relationship for Swaziland between 1975 and 2016 with the intention of estimating an optimal level of inflation, which maxims economic growth or minimizes growth losses.Design/methodology/approachWe estimate on an endogenous monetary model of economic growth augmented with a credit technology using a smooth transition regression (STR) model, which allows us to estimate an optimal inflation rate characterized by smooth transition between different inflation regimes.FindingsOur empirical results point to an inflation threshold estimate of 7.64 per cent at which economic growth gains are maximized or similarly growth losses are minimized. In particular, we find that above this threshold economic agents may be able to protect themselves from inflation through credit technology and a more urbanized population and yet such high inflation adversely affects the influence of exports on economic growth. This noteworthy since a majority of government revenues is from trade activity via the country's affiliation with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).Originality/valueThe major contribution of this paper is that it becomes the first to draw directly from endogenous growth theory to estimate the inflation threshold for any African country, which will hopefully pave a way for similar studies on other African countries.

Investigating asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression (STAR) approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Lorraine Greyling
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

PurposeThe primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa.FindingsThe findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity.Originality/valueThis paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.

The impacts of income inequality on the gross domestic product under direct taxation: evidence from emerging market economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Eren Yıldırım ◽  
Mete Dibo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Direct Taxation

PurposeThis study analyzes the impacts of income inequality after direct taxation on the gross domestic product as a fiscal policy tool in the development process.Design/methodology/approachThe model of the study is based on Munielo-Gallo and Roca-Sagales (2013), which examined the fiscal policy, income inequality and economic growth simultaneously. The study uses two models to analyze the relationship between income inequality and gross domestic production under direct taxation by employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for selected emerging market economies.FindingEmpirical results reveal a negative long-run relationship between variables in some countries in line with the literature, despite a positive relationship in others. Moreover, the results exhibit the negative impact of income inequality after direct taxation on the gross domestic product decreases.Originality/valueResults of the study highlight the importance of direct taxation on income inequality concerning the reflects on economic growth. It suggests that when the income distribution is fairer, it may positively affect the gross domestic product. The study provides a new perspective to the related literature by investigating the role of income inequality under direct taxation for gross domestic product.

scholarly journals Has Local Government Debt Promoted Economic Growth in developing countries? New evidence from a survey in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Tao Wu ◽  
Peng Zhong ◽  
Lingyue Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression

Based on the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Chinese local government’s bond financing and economic growth, with the quarterly panel data of bonds issued by local governments and their investment and financing platform companies in the open market from 2008 to 2018 as samples. The research shows that there is a gradual non-linear relationship between local government bond market financing and economic growth in China. With the increase of the scale of local government bond market financing in China, the effect of bond market financing on economic growth will gradually decline and have a negative effect. This result means that for developing countries like China, it is not advisable to rely solely on government investment to drive economic growth.

The impacts of sector growth and monetary policy on income inequality in developing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 591-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sima Siami-Namini ◽  
Darren Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Nonlinear Effect ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of growth in different sectors of the economy of developing countries on income inequality and analyze how inflation, as a proxy for monetary policy, makes a proportionate contribution for setting a binding national target for reducing income inequality. The paper examines the existence of a linear or nonlinear effect of inflation and sectoral economic growth on income inequality using a balanced panel data of 92 developing countries for the period of 1990–2014.Design/methodology/approachMethods section includes several steps as below: first, the functional form of the model using panel data for investigating the contribution of economic sectors in income inequality; second, to estimate the relationship between income inequality and sector growth: testing the Kuznets hypothesis; third, to estimate the relationship between inflation and income inequality base on general functional form of the model proposed by Amornthum (2004); fourth, a panel Granger causality analysis based on a VECM approach.FindingsThe statistically significant finding shows that first agricultural growth and then industrial growth have a dominate impact in reducing income inequality in our sample. But, the service sector growth has positive effects. The results confirm the existence of Kuznets inverted “U” hypothesis for industry growth and Kuznets “U” hypothesis for service sector growth. The findings show that sector growth and inflation affect income inequality in the long-run.Originality/valueThis research is an original paper which analyzes the effect of growth in different sectors of the economy of developing countries (agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors) on income inequality and test the Kuznets hypothesis in terms of sector growth and at the same time, examine the existence of a linear/nonlinear effect of inflation and sectoral economic growth on income inequality and test Granger causality relationship between income inequality and sector growth and inflation.

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