ILSHR Rumor Spreading Model by Combining SIHR and ILSR Models in Complex Networks

Rumor is an important form of social interaction. However, spreading harmful rumors can have a significant negative impact on social welfare. Therefore, it is important to examine rumor models. Rumors are often defined as unconfirmed details or descriptions of public things, events, or issues that are made and promoted through various tools. In this paper, the Ignorant-Lurker-Spreader-Hibernator-Removal (ILSHR) rumor spreading model has been developed by combining the ILSR and SIHR epidemic models. In addition to the characteristics of the lurker group of ILSR, this model also considers the characteristics of the hibernator group of the SIHR model. Due to the complexity of the complex network structure, the state transition function for each node is defined based on their degree to make the proposed model more efficient. Numerical simulations have been performed to compare the ILSHR rumor spreading model with other similar models on the Sina Weibo dataset. The results show more effective ILSHR performance with 95.83% accuracy than CSRT and SIR-IM models.

Introductory Models of COVID-19 in the United States

ABSTRACT Students develop and test simple kinetic models of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Microsoft Excel is used as the modeling platform because it is nonthreatening to students and it is widely available. Students develop finite difference models and implement them in the cells of preformatted spreadsheets following a guided inquiry pedagogy that introduces new model parameters in a scaffolded step-by-step manner. That approach allows students to investigate the implications of new model parameters in a systematic way. Students fit the resulting models to reported cases per day data for the United States using least squares techniques with Excel's Solver. Using their own spreadsheets, students discover for themselves that the initial exponential growth of COVID-19 can be explained by a simplified unlimited growth model and by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. They also discover that the effects of social distancing can be modeled using a Gaussian transition function for the infection rate coefficient and that the summer surge was caused by prematurely relaxing social distancing and then reimposing stricter social distancing. Students then model the effect of vaccinations and validate the resulting susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SIRV) model by showing that it successfully predicts the reported cases per day data from Thanksgiving through the holiday period up to 14 February 2021. The same SIRV model is then extended and successfully fits the fourth peak up to 1 June 2021, caused by further relaxation of social distancing measures. Finally, students extend the model up to the present day (27 August 2021) and successfully account for the appearance of the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The fitted model also predicts that the delta variant peak will be comparatively short, and the cases per day data should begin to fall off in early September 2021, counter to current expectations. This case study makes an excellent capstone experience for students interested in scientific modeling.

Planning with Incomplete Information in Quantified Answer Set Programming

We present a general approach to planning with incomplete information in Answer Set Programming (ASP). More precisely, we consider the problems of conformant and conditional planning with sensing actions and assumptions. We represent planning problems using a simple formalism where logic programs describe the transition function between states, the initial states and the goal states. For solving planning problems, we use Quantified Answer Set Programming (QASP), an extension of ASP with existential and universal quantifiers over atoms that is analogous to Quantified Boolean Formulas (QBFs). We define the language of quantified logic programs and use it to represent the solutions different variants of conformant and conditional planning. On the practical side, we present a translation-based QASP solver that converts quantified logic programs into QBFs and then executes a QBF solver, and we evaluate experimentally the approach on conformant and conditional planning benchmarks.

Hydrocarbon Field Re-Development as Markov Decision Process

Hydrocarbon field (re-)development requires that a multitude of decisions are made under uncertainty. These decisions include the type and size of surface facilities, location, configuration and number of wells but also which data to acquire. Both types of decisions, which development to choose and which data to acquire, are strongly coupled. The aim of appraisal is to maximize value while minimizing data acquisition costs. These decisions have to be done under uncertainty owing to the inherent uncertainty of the subsurface but also of other costs and economic parameters. Conventional Value Of Information (VOI) evaluations can be used to determine how much can be spend to acquire data. However, VOI is very challenging to calculate for complex sequences of decisions with various costs and including the risk attitude of the decision maker. We are using a fully observable Markov-Decision-Process (MDP) to determine the policy for the sequence and type of measurements and decisions to do. A fully observable MDP is characterised by the states (here: description of the system at a certain point in time), actions (here: measurements and development scenario), transition function (probabilities of transitioning from one state to the next), and rewards (costs for measurements, Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of development options). Solving the MDP gives the optimum policy, sequence of the decisions, the Probability Of Maturation (POM) of a project, the Expected Monetary Value (EMV), the expected loss, the expected appraisal costs, and the Probability of Economic Success (PES). These key performance indicators can then be used to select in a portfolio of projects the ones generating the highest expected reward for the company. Combining the production forecasts from numerical model ensembles with probabilistic capital and operating expenditures and economic parameters allows for quantitative decision making under uncertainty.

A Novel Method for Despeckling of Ultrasound Images Using Cellular Automata-Based Despeckling Filter

Ultrasound images have an inherent property termed as speckle noise that is the outcome of interference between incident and reflected ultrasound waves which reduce image resolution and contrast and could lead to improper diagnosis of any disease. In different approaches for reducing the speckle noise, there exists a class of filters that convert multiplicative noise into additive noise by using algorithmic functions. The current study proposes a cellular automata-based despeckling filter (CABDF) that implements a local spatial filtering framework for the restoration of the noisy image. In the proposed CABDF filter, a dual transition function has been designed which emphasizes the calculation of nearby weighted separation whose loads originate from the CABDF filtered image, including spatial separation, extend inconsistency, and statistical dispersion. The proposed filter found efficient both in terms of filtering and restoration of the original structure of the ultrasound images.

HPS meets AMPS: how soft hair dissolves the firewall

We build on the observation by Hawking, Perry and Strominger that a global black hole space-time supports a large number of soft hair degrees of freedom to shed new light on the firewall argument by Almheiri, Marolf, Polchinski, and Sully. We propose that the soft hair Goldstone mode is encoded in a classical transition function that connects the asymptotic and near horizon region. The entropy carried by the soft hair is part of the black hole entropy and encoded in the outside geometry. We argue that the infalling observer automatically measures the classical value of the soft mode before reaching the horizon and that this measurement implements a code subspace projection that enables the reconstruction of interior operators. We use the soft hair dynamics to introduce an observer dependent notion of the firewall and show that for an infalling observer it recedes inwards into the black hole interior: the observer never encounters a firewall before reaching the singularity. Our results indicate that the HPS black hole soft hair plays an essential role in dissolving the AMPS firewall.

Phase Transitions in a 2D Ising Model of Agent Expectations in Financial Markets: Analytics in One- and Two-Dimensional Network Topologies

Phase transitions between ordered and disordered states of interactive agents have been recognized as integral to dynamics in a range of economic and social processes. Several theorists in the study of financial markets have directly linked phase transitions between disordered and ordered states of agents to a critical point in the dynamics of market price. To date, phase transitions in the dynamics of price in financial markets have been demonstrated with numerical methods. In an application to a financial market, we propose a multicomponent in which a first component is in bounded rationality and a second component is in behavior that generates herding in financial markets. A transition function defines the relative weight of components. We extend conditions of Onsager (1944) for phase transitions in a 2D Ising model and analytically demonstrate that the proposed model evidences phase transitions. Generalizations of the results to other multi-component models are noted.

The reversibility of one-dimensional cellular automata

Recently the reversible cellular automata are increasingly used to build high-performance cryptographic algorithms. The paper establishes a connection between the reversibility of homogeneous one-dimensional binary cellular automata of a finite size and the properties of a structure called binary filter with input memory and such finite automata properties as the prohibitions in automata output and loss of information. We show that finding the preimage for an arbitrary configuration of a one-dimensional cellular automaton of length L with a local transition function f is associated with reversibility of a binary filter with input memory. As a fact, the nonlinear filter with an input memory corresponding to our cellular automaton does not depend on the number of memory cells of the cellular automaton. The results obtained make it possible to reduce the complexity of solving massive enumeration problems related to the issues of reversibility of cellular automata. All the results obtained can be transferred to cellular automata with non-binary cell filling and to cellular automata of dimension greater than 1.