Scenarios, their concept, elaboration and application

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiří Fotr ◽  
Miroslav Špaček ◽  
Ivan Souček ◽  
Emil Vacík
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Companies ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Scenario Approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to elucidate on specific risk mitigation approach which is known as “scenario approach”. Description of stepwise process of their elaboration, which is worth considering for managers, offers feasible tool not only for company risk management improvement but also for significant enhancement of the quality of company strategic planning. Authors also draw attention to advantages and disadvantages of investment and strategic scenario planning. Theoretical implications of using scenario approaches are exemplified both by the set of investment projects and company strategic planning process where method in question was applied. Design/methodology/approach – As for methods applied which fulfilled research strategies, it is worth mentioning following items: analysis which explores particular parts of methodology of scenario elaboration and application, the way of obtaining information, impact on strategy, working with risks and organizational support of outcomes in company environment; synthesis observing context and natural relation of problems solved which supports research hypotheses formulation; induction generalizing facts acquired from results in companies; deduction to be grounds on which conclusion of this paper was drawn up; abstraction used upon evaluation of case studies; comparison assessing consistency and inconsistency of phenomena and objects; description inevitable for characterization of companies and environment in which they operate; interview collecting information inevitable for the evaluation of the way of working with scenarios and company knowledge standards; modelling was used upon consideration about possible future development of factors observed. Findings – The paper arrived at conclusion, that scenario approach, when used appropriately, may significantly mitigate risk exposure of the company. Conclusions which have been made on selected industrial companies can be extended to other industrial branches. Practical application of scenario planning method confirmed that this approach was superior to deterministic single scenario model. Scenario technique thus compensates for deficiencies and omissions which are inherent in simplistic deterministic model. In cases where an investment scenario planning process proved to be insufficient, the paper refers to more advanced techniques like simulation methods or real options. Research limitations/implications – Over past ten years practical test of proposed stepwise process of scenarios elaboration was repeatedly tested on approx ten industrial companies during the tenure of Mr Soucek and Mr Špaček in top managerial positions. Practical implications – This paper offers flexible and feasible toll for scenario elaboration and their further development. Such an approach contributes significantly to the enhancement of company risk management process. Proceedures described were successfully tested in managerial practice by two of authors while holding CEO positions in oil prcessing and pharma business. Social implications – This paper does not have direct social implication. But scenario approach as a powerful tool of risk management process may significantly contribute to company survival and thus impact social status all stakeholders concerned. Therefore social implications should be identified rather on the background of the problem. Originality/value – Notwithstanding some general notion about scenario concept, there is still little evidence that scenario approach is applied in larger extent. It is prevalently due to lack of expertise of respective managers who are obviously puzzled with numerous outcomes to be obtained by this approach. Clearly define procedure of scenarios formation may be conducive to larger exploitation of this approach. Design of the elaboration and application of scenario approach which was proven to be functioning in the practice brings new benefits to risk management exploration.

Customisable framework for project risk management

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Firmenich
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
New Institutional Economics ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Management Concepts

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to emphasise on the need for efficient and effective project risk management practices and to support project managers in increasing the cost certainty of projects by proposing a new framework for project risk management. Design/methodology/approach The author adopts a “constructivist” methodology, drawing on practices common in construction management sciences and new institutional economics. Findings The author presents a holistic and customisable project risk management framework that is grounded in both practice and academia. The framework is holistic because, amongst others, all steps of the typical risk management process are addressed. The framework is customisable, because it allows for alternative ways of implementing the project risk management steps depending on the project-specific circumstances. Research limitations/implications The framework does not address the potential unwillingness of the project players to set up a project risk management process, at all. The proposed framework has not yet been tested empirically. Future research will seek to validate the framework. Originality/value The framework is designed to account for the difficult circumstances of a complex construction project. It is intended to support decision makers in customising a practical yet comprehensive project risk management concept to the characteristics of the unique project. Although many other project risk management concepts are designed based on the assumption that actors are perfectly rational and informed, this framework’s design is based on the opposite assumption. The framework is dynamic and should adapt over time.

Cyber risk management in SMEs: insights from industry surveys

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicitas Hoppe ◽  
Nadine Gatzert ◽  
Petra Gruner
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Culture ◽  
Current State ◽  
Enterprise Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Cyber Risk

PurposeThis article aims to gain insights on the current state of small- and medium-sized enterprises’ (SMEs’) cyber risk management process and to derive future research directions.Design/methodology/approachThis is done by collecting market insights from 37 recent industry surveys and structuring them based on the steps of the risk management process. From this analysis, major challenges are derived and future fields of research identified.FindingsThe results indicate that deficiencies in risk culture as well as the strained market for IT experts are the major obstacles with respect to the implementation of cyber risk management in SMEs, and that these challenges are similar across countries. The findings suggest that especially the relationship between cyber security culture and cyber risk management should be investigated further, and that a stronger link between the research streams on enterprise risk management and cyber risk management would be desirable.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature by providing a systematic overview on the current state of SMEs' cyber risk management from a market perspective. The findings provide support for the existing academic literature by emphasizing the central role of cyber security culture (perception, knowledge, attitude) for a successful cyber risk management, which however should be addressed in more depth in future (empirical) research.

Flood warning in a Swedish local risk management context

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Stig Persson ◽  
Lars Nyberg ◽  
Inge Svedung
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Management Context ◽  
Local Risk

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how local early warning systems (EWSs) for floods are established at the municipality level in Sweden. The study also aims to analyse the role of EWSs in a risk management context. The overall purpose of this study is to elucidate how and to what extent the adoption of local EWSs can generate value-added benefits throughout the wider risk management process. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews have been conducted with supervisors at each municipality in order to depict how local EWS are established at the municipality level in Sweden. The interviews went through a content analysis with respect to theory on EWS and theory on the risk management process. Findings – The possible effects from an EWS is not only reduced flood losses but also potential spinoff. The possibility of spinoff effects from the system, but also the mitigating effectiveness in case of a flood is largely dependent on the well-being of the organisation and its risk management processes. Originality/value – This study widens the understanding of the value of an EWS and that the organisational culture and state of risk management system has influence on the availability of such value. Identifying the potential added value from EWSs is important from a more general disaster risk reduction perspective, as it helps to further motivate implementation of proactive risk management measures. This knowledge can be of help to others who investigate the possibilities of investing in EWSs.

Measuring project risk management process for construction contractors with statement indicators linked to numerical scores

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 336-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Kululanga ◽  
Witness Kuotcha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Project Risk Management ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Sub Saharan

PurposeThere is relatively low implementation of formal project risk management methods in practice, leading to the construction industry consistently suffering from poor project performance. This study aims to ascertain the extent to which current project risk management practices are used by construction contractors in one of the countries of the sub‐Saharan region – Malawi.Design/methodology/approachA management process tool with statement indicators linked to numerical scores was conceived that characterised a series of steps of project risk management process. To ascertain the degree to which project risk management processes were used, a questionnaire survey was employed. Data were elicited from registered Malawian construction contractors on the elements underlining a series of steps of project risk management process as espoused by the literature. Out of 84 sampled construction contractors, 51 completed questionnaires were received.FindingsApart from large‐sized and more experienced construction contractors, all the small and medium‐sized construction contractors – which constitute the largest proportion of the construction industry – were characterised by a low implementation of the various required steps for the project risk management process. The application of project risk management processes was significantly influenced by the various categories of size and experience of the surveyed construction contractors at p<0.01. Furthermore, contingence planning within the series of steps of project risk management process featured highly among the surveyed construction contractors. The majority of the variables under the series of steps of project risk management process were positively and significantly linked to progression in size and experience of construction contractors at p<0.01.Research limitations/implicationsThe study forms the basis for further research; replication of this study to other parts of world about how the actual implementation of the series of steps of project risk management process is undertaken could yield rich lessons for the construction industry.Practical implicationsThe intentional move by industry towards measuring management processes as a precursor to uncovering the root causes that underlie project success or failure to provide quick feedback for remedial action is supported by an approach such as this.Originality/valueThe originality of this paper lies in its uniqueness for a systematic approach to quantifying the project risk management processes with the view to understanding the implementation behaviours of construction contractors in one country in the sub‐Saharan region.

Risk management in SMEs: a systematic review of available evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 122-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Maria Falkner ◽  
Martin R.W. Hiebl
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Systematic Literature Review ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Body ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Word Search

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic literature review of available research evidence on risk management in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The authors aim to reveal ambiguities, gaps and contradictions in the literature, and to sketch avenues for further research. Design/methodology/approach – The authors follow the tenets of Tranfield et al. (2003) for conducting a systematic literature review. Following a key word search and an assessment of fit for this review, 27 papers were analyzed with respect to bibliographical information, research design and findings. Findings – The review identified various types of risks that may occur in SMEs. In addition, the publication analysis demonstrates the importance of a risk management process in SMEs and that the characteristics of SME owners have a significant impact on their business strategies. Research limitations/implications – Additional empirical research on risk identification, risk analysis, strategy implementation and control in the SME risk management process is needed. Originality/value – This paper is the first comprehensive review of the body of literature on risk management in SMEs.

Residents’ perception towards tourism impacts in Kashmir

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asif Hamid Charag ◽  
Asif Iqbal Fazili ◽  
Irfan Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
Tourism Impacts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
City Tourism ◽  
Significant Difference

Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand the residents’ perception towards environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of tourism development in Kashmir. Design/methodology/approach The research instrument containing 27 items pertaining to six variables is adopted from the literature. A mix-method survey approach is used to solicit residents’ perceptions regarding environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts of the current level of tourism development. A total of 326 useful responses were subjected to descriptive statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post hoc analysis using SPSS (Version 22.0). Findings In general, the negative and positive impacts of tourism development are well perceived by the residents. The results indicate that the residents display positive perception regarding economic impacts, however, social and environmental impacts are negatively perceived. Furthermore, barring level of education, the study found no significant difference in the residents’ perception towards tourism impacts (environmental, social, cultural, economic, quality of life and cost of living). Research limitations/implications The paper identifies perceived impacts and issues of tourism development thereby, proposing possible mitigating measures. Also, the study identifies the need to develop a comprehensive policy framework addressing the issues related to the resident’s negative feelings towards tourism impacts. Further, the study envisages the need for engaging residents in developing a progressive and participatory planning process for future tourism activities in the area. Social implications The study offers critical social implications for city tourism development. It suggests a community-based approach should be adopted to sensitize residents about the positive benefits of tourism. Originality/value The study is a novel attempt concerning residents’ residents perceptual differences towards tourism impacts. Furthermore, this study investigated socio-cultural impacts of tourism under two separate categories for better understanding. in doing so, this study provides finer understanding of perception of residents towards tourism impacts in Indian context. The findings of the study will prove critical for different stakeholders in developing future tourism framework and policies in the region.

A critical analysis of supply chain risk management content: a structured literature review

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surya Prakash ◽  
Gunjan Soni ◽  
Ajay Pal Singh Rathore
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Supply Chain Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain Risk ◽  
Marked Rise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Management Process

Purpose The research on supply chain risk management (SCRM) is visibly on the rise, although its literature still lacks the state of the art that critically analyzes its content. The SCRM literature seems to require studies that utilize risk typology, sources of risk, etc. for reviewing the topic. The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap by synthesizing the information obtained from 343 articles across 85 journals. This study also presents a critical analysis of the content of SCRM in a structured manner to identify the directions for future research. Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review (SLR) was devised and adopted, which involved the selection, classification, and evaluation of 343 research articles published over a period of 11 years (2004-2014). The content of extant SCRM literature was critically analyzed and synthesized from the perspective of the risk management process (RMP). Findings The analysis of extant literature shows that there is a marked rise in research in the SCRM area, especially after the year 2005. It was observed that not only risk but also different forms of uncertainties make supply chain (SC) operations difficult to manage. The SCRM actions yielded most benefits when their implementation was at chain or network level and managed strategically. The analysis also reveals that the manufacturing sector is most affected by risks and highly investigated by researchers. Practical implications A complete process for SCRM based on risk stratification, objectives of risk management, and RMP will be a guiding model for firms to manage risks. The research gaps identified and future directions provided here will encourage researchers and managers to devise new methods, tools, and techniques to address the risks in modern SC operations. Originality/value An SLR and risk-based content classification of SCRM literature were performed. To identify, locate, select, and analyze the SCRM literature, a structured and systematic process was adopted with some very rarely used methods such as two levels of search keywords, and strings were formulated to locate the most relevant articles in major academic databases.

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