What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-155
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

PurposeDeterminants of credit growth in Saudi Arabia are investigated.Design/methodology/approachA panel approach is applied to macroeconomic and bank-level data spanning 2000 ‐15.FindingsBank lending is supported by strong bank balance sheet conditions (high capital ratio, and growth of NPL provisioning and deposits), and higher growth of both oil prices and non-oil private sector GDP. Lower bank concentration also helps, likely through greater competition, so does stronger institution. Consistent with the literature, lending by Islamic banks may be more responsive to economic activity. Lending remained robust in 2015 despite oil prices having declined, helped by strong bank balance sheets and as banks reduced their holdings of “excess liquidity”. To support bank lending in the period ahead, bank balance sheets need to remain strong. Fiscal adjustment and a reduced reliance on banks to finance the budget deficit would support credit provision to the private sector.Originality/valueThe paper is first to analyze in detail determinants of bank lending in Saudi Arabia applying a panel approach to bank level data, and draws critical policy implications.

An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Feedback Loops ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

AbstractAgainst the backdrop of low oil prices, oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to macro- and micro-level data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and nonoil private sector output leads dampen credit and deposit growth and lift nonperforming loan ratios. Positive feedback loops within bank balance sheets in turn dampen economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant. The banking system remains strong at present, but policy makers should monitor its health with the important macro-financial feedback loops in mind.

Islamic banking and real performances in a dual banking system

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 426-447
Author(s):  
Mohamed Ben Mimoun
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Long Run

Purpose There is a rich debate on the nature of Islamic banking (IB)–growth nexus and the direction of causality governing this nexus. This study aims to focus on this issue in the case of Saudi Arabia, the largest country-holder of Islamic Banks (IBs)’ assets worldwide. It assesses empirically the nature of dynamic interactions between IBs’ financing and the real performances in the non-oil private sector (investment and GDP) in the context of a dual banking system where IBs operate alongside their conventional counterparts. Design/methodology/approach This study employs the Bounds test in the context of reparametrized autoregression distribution lags (ARDL) models to analyse both long-run and short-run dynamics governing Islamic and conventional banks’ (CBs) financings on one hand and real investment and GDP in the private sector on the other hand over the 2007q1-2016q4 period. It also uses the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) augmented Granger-causality test to assess the direction of causality governing these dynamics. Findings The more important results are: there is a stable and significant long-run relationship between IBs’ financing and real performances in the private sector. This nexus is governed by the “feed-back hypothesis”, implying the validity of both the “supply-leading” and the “demand-following” hypotheses. In a dual banking system context, IBs exert two effects on the financing of their conventional counterparts: a negative “crowding-out” effect and a positive and “stimulating” effect which transmits through the “competition” channel. Finally, in the long-run, steady-state, real GDP is dissociated from CBs’ financing. Originality/value This paper highlights an issue that has not received the needed attention in the case of Saudi Arabia. It has also found novel results with important policy implications.

How does bank liquidity creation affect non-performing loans in the MENA region?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anas Alaoui Mdaghri
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Conventional Banks

PurposeThe study aims to empirically examine the effect of bank liquidity creation on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.Design/methodology/approachBerger and Bouwman's (2009) three-step methodology was employed to calculate the level of liquidity creation of a selected sample of 111 commercial banks in ten MENA countries from 2010–2017. Next, the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator was used to investigate the linkage between bank liquidity creation and NPLs.FindingsThe results demonstrated a significant negative effect of bank liquidity creation on NPLs in the short and long term, implying that liquidity creation through both on- and off-balance sheet activities decreases NPLs. These findings accord with the “economic-enhancing” view. Furthermore, regression analysis investigated whether this relationship remained similar for Islamic and conventional banks. The results showed that liquidity creation diminishes Islamic and conventional bank NPLs.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical findings raise several significant policy implications. Bank liquidity creation may decrease rather than increase NPLs, although the process of liquidity creation is viewed as risky by rendering banks more illiquid. Therefore, policy-makers should encourage bank liquidity creation to stimulate the economy. In a robust economy, borrowers are more likely to repay their debts, consequently diminishing banks' NPLs.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge, the current study is the first to provide empirical evidence on the effect of bank liquidity creation on NPLs in MENA countries.

scholarly journals Cash flow disaggregation and prediction of cash flow

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khansalar ◽  
Mohammad Namazi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the incremental information content of estimates of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine whether the models incorporating components of operating cash flow from income statements and balance sheets using the direct method are associated with smaller prediction errors than the models incorporating core and non-core cash flow. Findings Using data from US and UK firms and multiple regression analysis, the authors find that around 60 per cent of a current year’s cash flow will persist into the next period’s cash flows, and that income statement and balance sheet variables persist similarly. The explanatory power and predictive ability of disaggregated cash flow models are superior to that of an aggregated model, and further disaggregating previously applied core and non-core cash flows provides incremental information about income statement and balance sheet items that enhances prediction of future cash flows. Disaggregated models and their components produce lower out-of-sample prediction errors than an aggregated model. Research limitations/implications This study improves our appreciation of the behaviour of cash flow components and confirms the need for detailed cash flow information in accordance with the articulation of financial statements. Practical implications The findings are relevant to investors and analysts in predicting future cash flows and to regulators with respect to disclosure requirements and recommendations. Social implications The findings are also relevant to financial statement users interested in better predicting a firm’s future cash flows and thereby, its firm’s value. Originality/value This paper contributes to the existing literature by further disaggregating cash flow items into their underlying items from income statements and balance sheets.

West Africa ports compete for regional dominance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Port Expansion

Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arab State ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Verbal Exchanges

Significance This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia in mid-September. The two countries' mutual hostility prevented Iranian citizens from taking part in the hajj. Iran's developing ties with both Russia and Turkey are also raising mutual tension with Saudi Arabia. Impacts Tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinder future efforts by oil producers to agree a strategy leading to a rise in global prices. Mutual hostility between Tehran and Riyadh will be a major factor behind the failure of international efforts to end the war in Yemen. Medium-term low oil prices may threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to provide further financial bail-outs to Egypt, a key Sunni Arab state.

The roles of domestic and foreign Islamic banks in Malaysian monetary transmission

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fidlizan Muhammad ◽  
Asmak Ab Rahman ◽  
Ahmad Azam Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Bank Lending Channel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lending Channel ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Loan Supply

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to empirically test the presence of the bank lending channel for the Islamic banking system in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach – Distributional effects from monetary policy changes were analyzed by three bank characteristics such as size, liquidity and capital. Using the econometric model by Kashyap and Stein (1995), the implementation of a policy contraction leads to reduction in loan supply because some banks may not able to offset a reduction in deposits. The paper explores the response shown between domestic and foreign Islamic banks in Malaysia using bank-level data from 2005 to 2010. Findings – The empirical result indicates presence of the bank lending channel in the Islamic banking system in Malaysia, size and liquidity as sources of difference response of financing supply in domestic bank and capital for foreign Islamic bank and Islamic interbank rate as an efficient tool in conducting monetary policy especially in the Islamic banking system. Originality/value – The paper manages to explore the effectiveness of Islamic the monetary policy tools in the Islamic Banking system in Malaysia. Using Islamic interbank rate as a policy tool, it provides valuable view to policy makers, who are analyzing for efficiency of transmission channel.

scholarly journals Balance sheets after the EMU: an assessment of the redenomination risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cédric Durand ◽  
Sébastien Villemot
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Institutional Sector ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Currency Mismatches ◽  
Of Greece

Abstract The probability of a partial or complete break-up of the euro has risen over the last years. Such an event could create a balance sheet problem for economic agents, if the redenomination process introduced significant currency mismatches between the asset and liability sides. We propose a new assessment of this redenomination risk, by country and by main institutional sector, for two scenarios: a single country exit and a complete break-up. Our main conclusion is that, even though the problem has to be taken seriously, its order of magnitude should not be exaggerated. Only a few sectors are at significant risk: public debts of Greece and Portugal, financial sectors of Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg. In particular, the balance sheet exposure of the non-financial private sector to the redenomination risk appears to be limited.

scholarly journals Republic of Azerbaijan

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (301) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Revenue Administration

Azerbaijan is recovering from a banking crisis and recession caused by a prolonged decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Monetary conditions remain tight under a de facto peg. Despite rising government spending, the fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2019 mainly due to firmer oil prices and improvements in revenue administration. Weaknesses in bank balance sheets, structural and policy rigidities, and institutional and governance deficiencies hinder medium-term growth prospects and weaken resilience to shocks.

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