scholarly journals Republic of Azerbaijan

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (301) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Revenue Administration

Azerbaijan is recovering from a banking crisis and recession caused by a prolonged decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Monetary conditions remain tight under a de facto peg. Despite rising government spending, the fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2019 mainly due to firmer oil prices and improvements in revenue administration. Weaknesses in bank balance sheets, structural and policy rigidities, and institutional and governance deficiencies hinder medium-term growth prospects and weaken resilience to shocks.

scholarly journals Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Economic Outlook

Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.

What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-155
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

PurposeDeterminants of credit growth in Saudi Arabia are investigated.Design/methodology/approachA panel approach is applied to macroeconomic and bank-level data spanning 2000 ‐15.FindingsBank lending is supported by strong bank balance sheet conditions (high capital ratio, and growth of NPL provisioning and deposits), and higher growth of both oil prices and non-oil private sector GDP. Lower bank concentration also helps, likely through greater competition, so does stronger institution. Consistent with the literature, lending by Islamic banks may be more responsive to economic activity. Lending remained robust in 2015 despite oil prices having declined, helped by strong bank balance sheets and as banks reduced their holdings of “excess liquidity”. To support bank lending in the period ahead, bank balance sheets need to remain strong. Fiscal adjustment and a reduced reliance on banks to finance the budget deficit would support credit provision to the private sector.Originality/valueThe paper is first to analyze in detail determinants of bank lending in Saudi Arabia applying a panel approach to bank level data, and draws critical policy implications.

An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Feedback Loops ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

AbstractAgainst the backdrop of low oil prices, oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to macro- and micro-level data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and nonoil private sector output leads dampen credit and deposit growth and lift nonperforming loan ratios. Positive feedback loops within bank balance sheets in turn dampen economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant. The banking system remains strong at present, but policy makers should monitor its health with the important macro-financial feedback loops in mind.

scholarly journals Iraq

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (251) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Expected Improvement ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Growth Prospects

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a double shock facing Iraq as a result of the conflict with the Islamic State and the plunge in oil prices. In 2016, real GDP increased by 11 percent owing to a 25 percent increase in oil production, which was little affected by the conflict with the Islamic State. Falling oil prices have driven the decline in Iraq’s international reserves from $54 billion at the end of 2015 to $45 billion at the end of 2016. Medium-term growth prospects are positive. Growth will be driven by the projected moderate increase in oil production and the rebound in non-oil growth supported by the expected improvement in security and implementation of structural reform.

scholarly journals Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (79) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Response ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Made In

This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Italy reflects discussions with the Italian authorities in January 2020 and is based on the information available as of January 28, 2020. It focuses on Italy’s medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. It, therefore, does not cover the outbreak or the related policy response, which has since become the overarching near-term priority. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring this health crisis and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Italy and globally. The overarching challenges are to raise growth and enhance resilience. The IMF staff projects growth in Italy to be the lowest in the European Union over the next five years. High public debt remains a key source of vulnerability. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening bank balance sheets, but important weaknesses remain. In order to durably raise growth and reduce vulnerabilities, Italy needs faster potential growth and medium-term fiscal consolidation.

scholarly journals VINCULACIONES POLÍTICAS EN UN RÉGIMEN DE BANCA LIBRE: EL CASO DE LA CRISIS BANCARIA DE 1878 EN CHILE

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-512
Author(s):  
Ignacio Briones
Keyword(s):  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Free Banking ◽  
Large Bank ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Bank Run ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

ABSTRACTIn 1878 Chile experienced a banking crisis which brought an end to the Chilean free-banking period based on convertibility initiated in 1860. Using monthly bank balance sheets and other primary sources, I analyze the period and argue that one important explanation for the crisis was the growing relationship between banks and government through state loans to finance fiscal deficits and privileges to the issuing banks. I claim that the crisis emerged from a large bank loan in late 1877 which induced over-issuance and depreciation expectations leading, logically, to a bank run. The Chilean case provides valuable evidence of an element frequently neglected by the free-banking literature: the links between banks and government.

scholarly journals Greece

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (340) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Structural Policy ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Program Monitoring ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

Greece’s economic recovery continues, but it has fallen far short of expectations. The new government elected in July has pledged to follow pro-growth policies while honoring fiscal and structural policy commitments to Euro Area (EA) member states, but its ability to overcome vested interests has yet to be tested. Public debt is projected to trend down over the next decade, though long-term sustainability is not assured under realistic macro-fiscal assumptions. Still-weak bank balance sheets act as a drag on growth prospects and pose significant fiscal and financial stability risks. These and other factors leave Greece vulnerable to a range of external and domestic shocks. Greece owes the Fund SDR 6.7 billion and is under Post-Program Monitoring (PPM). The authorities have asked the European Institutions (EIs) for approval to prepay the portion (SDR 2.2 billion) that is subject to surcharges.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

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