scholarly journals Islamic equities and COVID-19 pandemic: measuring Islamic stock indices correlation and volatility in period of crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-66
Author(s):  
Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Normal Correlation

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to measure cross-country stock market correlation and volatility transmission during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The paper traces trajectory of Islamic equity investments in order to get insights on the behavior of the markets during the crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses generalized method of moments (GMM), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models for analysis of dynamic causality, stock market cointegration, correlation and volatility transmission between Islamic stock indices.FindingsThe result of normal correlation analysis on the share indices show the markets move together. The result of ARDL cointegration test shows the markets returns are cointegrated as a group. To further make sense of the data; the indices were grouped into four different categories, then cointegration tests were conducted. The results of the analysis show that the subgroups are cointegrated except the low COVID-19 subgroup. Based on MGARCH findings, the possibility of volatility transmission between markets during the crisis is high. The market returns indices show the usual herd mentality common during the period of crisis.Originality/valueUnlike other works in this area, this paper attempt to trace the trajectory of Islamic equity investment in order to get relevant insights and arrives at appropriate ways of responding to the crisis.

scholarly journals Poverty and labour market institutions in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-290
Author(s):  
Giorgio Liotti ◽  
Rosaria Canale
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Labour Market Regulation ◽  
Lag Model

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of flexibility in the labour market on workers? monetary poverty in 15 European countries in the time span 2005-2016. We estimate how the labour market regulation index (LMRI) affects workers? monetary poverty through two empirical exercises: in the first one, we use an autoregressive distributed lag model and, in the second one, the generalized method of moments model. The results suggest that greater flexibility of the labour market is positively correlated with greater monetary poverty among employed people. The result does not change significantly when introducing the effect of the economic crisis and the interaction effect between the economic crisis and the LMRI. Therefore, we conclude that the outcome should be considered to be noticeable whatever the macroeconomic conditions occurring in the labour market.

Volatility transmission within financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: are faith-based investors well off in Tunisia?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustapha Ishaq Akinlaso ◽  
Aroua Robbana ◽  
Nura Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Lower Amount ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
Standard And Poor's ◽  
Future Return ◽  
Diversification Benefit

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the risk-return and volatility spillover within the Tunisian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic analyzing both the Islamic and conventional stocks’ performance. Design/methodology/approach Both symmetric (GARCH and GARCH-M) and asymmetric (Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH) models are used to analyze the market returns and volatility response. Standard and Poor’s (S&P) index has been used to test both the Islamic and conventional stocks within the Tunisian stock market. Findings The findings suggest that both Tunisia Islamic and conventional stock markets are highly persistent; however, the conventional stock index showed a negative return spillover on the Islamic stocks during the pandemic. The conventional stock index has also shown a higher exposure to risk for a lower amount of return, and evidence of potential diversification benefit between both indexes was found during the pandemic, whereas the Islamic market showed a positive leverage effect, indicating a positive correlation between past return and future return; the conventional index implied a negative leverage effect. Originality/value The value of this paper emerges in studying three main aspects that are specific to the Tunisian stock market. This includes COVID-19 effect of return spillovers, volatility transmission across both conventional and Islamic stock market within the local financial market.

Ownership concentration, earnings management and stock market liquidity: evidence from Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 490-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamdan Amer Al-Jaifi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Ownership Concentration ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Liquidity ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether ownership concentration and earnings management affect the stock market liquidity of Malaysian firms. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a sample of 2,020 yearly firm observations in Bursa Malaysia over the period 2009-2012. The ordinary least square regression is used to examine the relationships. The study undertakes a sensitivity test by regressing the main study variables by using different measurements. Another robustness test is then used, where a regression based on the change in variables and a one-year lag of the independent variables are used. Furthermore, to alleviate the concern of possible endogeneity, the simultaneity and reverse causality are checked using the lag of the dependent variable, fixed effect regression, two-stage least squares using the instrumental variables and the generalized method of moments using instrumental variables analysis. Findings The study finds that firms with a high level of ownership concentration have discrepancies in information between informed and uninformed traders, which impair the stock market liquidity. In addition, this study finds that firms with high earnings management experience greater liquidity. A possible explanation for this is that firms might manage earnings to convey private information to enhance the information content of the earnings. Overall, the evidence suggests that manipulating earnings signals information informatively, particularly in a country with a higher level of ownership concentration and a higher likelihood of expropriating minority shareholders. Originality/value This study enriches the limited empirical research devoted to the impact of earnings management and ownership concentration on stock market liquidity especially in the context of emerging economies. The findings of this study are robust to alternative liquidity measurements, to alternative estimation methods, and to endogeneity bias.

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 097674791989890
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

The study explores the relationship between consumer confidence, household private consumer expenditure and other related macroeconomic financial variables for Brazil, a major, upper middle, income, Latin American country. It is widely discussed in the literature that the consumer confidence is an initial guide to the future behaviour of the economy based on the consumption path. Thus, a rise in the confidence of the consumer would lead to rising household consumption behaviour, which would percolate to accelerate economic growth. The study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on private consumer spending, taking into consideration the significance of other financial variables, namely the rate of interest, stock market index, the exchange rate, inflation and unemployment trends. The study employs monthly data from the 4th month of 1995 to the 10th month of 2018. The bounds test of the NARDL suggests the presence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The model estimation affirms the presence of asymmetries in the behaviour of the major explanatory variables. In the short run, there are both positive and negative asymmetric impacts of consumer confidence index (CCI) on consumer expenditure, while the rate of interest has only negative asymmetries. In the long run, unemployment changes, stock market fluctuations, interest rate variation and alterations in the CCI shape the behaviour of consumer spending at the household level in Brazil. So, the consumers are able to perceive the signalling of the future behaviour of the market and contribute through consumption spending. JEL: C22; D12; E21; O54

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on Income Inequality: Evidence from China

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 443-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jai S. Mah
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Linear Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper uses data for China during the period 1982–2010 and tests the effect of FDI inflows on income inequality, which is measured by the urban Gini coefficient. A small-sample cointegration test and autoregressive distributed lag bounds test are used as the cointegration tests. According to them, the variables under consideration are not cointegrated. The GMM estimation results show that income inequality worsens with FDI flows into China. The evidence from China shows a non-linear effect of FDI inflows on income inequality.

scholarly journals Stock Market Investment and Inflation: Evidence from the United States and Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-365
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Stock Market Investment ◽  
Robust Evidence

This paper examines the long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices to understand whether stock market investment can help hedge against inflation in the United States (US) and Canada. This study employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001), and finds evidence of a positive long-run economic relationship between stock prices and goods prices in both economies over the sample period 1960 to 2019. The long-run elasticity is above one for both economies implying that the developments in the goods market significantly affect the stock market. We undertake a suite of sensitivity checks and find robust evidence that the stock market investment can help hedge against inflation in the United States and Canada.

scholarly journals Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Anderl ◽  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

PurposeThis paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.Design/methodology/approachBoth a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.FindingsThe results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.Originality/valueThe focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

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