scholarly journals Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Anderl ◽  
Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

PurposeThis paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.Design/methodology/approachBoth a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.FindingsThe results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.Originality/valueThe focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umit Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Target Output

Abstract This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.

Global commodity prices and inflation expectations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adviti Devaguptapu ◽  
Pradyumna Dash
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
Global Food

PurposeIn this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies.Design/methodology/approachWe use multifractal de-trended cross-correlation analysis to estimate the non-linear and time-varying cross-correlation. We provide additional robustness tests using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag method.FindingsWe find that household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are all multifractal. We also find that the household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are positively correlated (i.e., they are persistent). However, household inflation expectations respond more when the volatility of the global energy inflation is lower than when the volatility is higher. The correlation between household inflation expectations and global food inflation does not depend on the level of volatility.Research limitations/implicationsFirst, paying attention to the global commodity inflation might help anchor inflation expectations better. It is so because Central Bank's efficacy in achieving price stability may be weakened if there is a relationship between commodity inflation and inflation expectation. This task would become even more difficult in the average inflation targeting regime than inflation targeting regime if actual inflation is persistently different from the target inflation. Second, our results also emphasize the importance of effective strategy for communicating to households about actual inflation, inflation target and keep them updated about how monetary policy functions.Originality/valueWe contribute to the literature by estimating the cross-correlation between household inflation expectations with the global commodity inflation, conditional to the volatility of the commodity inflation under consideration.

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real exchange rate and net FDI inflows in Mauritius

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashok Babubudjnauth ◽  
Boopendra Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Time Series Methodology ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of real exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive distributed lag time series methodology is used. Findings Real exchange rate depreciation enhances inflows of FDI in both the short and long run. Originality/value The research is original, and data used are from official sources.

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

scholarly journals Indonesian Export Analysis: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syarifah Labibah ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive

There are some factors predicted tohave an effect on the countries’ economic devlopment. This study aimed to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of In-flation, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Economic Growth (the destination of the United States, China, and Japan) on the Indonesian Export. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is used in this analysis from 1968 through 2017. The results of the analysis show that in the long-term, the inflation and the economic growth in China as well in Japan has a positive sign and significant effect on Indonesian exports. In addition, in the short-term, the US exchange rate and economic growth have a positive significant effect on Indonesian exports.

scholarly journals The impacts of oil price on exchange rates: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 2037-2058
Author(s):  
Tilal Hassen Mohammed Suliman ◽  
Mehdi Abid
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

The real exchange rate is a key indicator of a country’s trade competitiveness in the world. This paper investigates the interaction between oil price and real exchange rates in Saudi Arabia during the period January 1986 -March 2019, using monthly data. This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and the error correction model in order to investigate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The evidence reveals that there is a strong long-run cointegration. The robustness of the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test cointegration was confirmed using the newly developed combined cointegration, which also provided the same evidence for a strong long-run relationship. In the short term, the results confirm the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship ranging from the oil price to the exchange rate. In the long term, however, the causal relationship is bidirectional between these two variables. An appreciation of the Saudi exchange rate generates an increase in the relative demand for oil, which in turn creates upward pressure on its price. For policy purposes, such evidence suggests that Saudi Arabia should be careful not to put too much weight on the benefits of higher revenue due to higher oil price.

Vertical price transmission in the Nigerian cowpea market

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (11) ◽  
pp. 2730-2745
Author(s):  
Wenchao Wu ◽  
Hsiaoping Chien ◽  
Takeshi Sakurai ◽  
Satoru Muranaka
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Food Market ◽  
The Asymmetry

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymmetry of vertical price transmission (i.e. from the wholesale to the retail market) in the Nigerian cowpea market and identify its causes. Design/methodology/approach The authors surveyed 19 markets in Kano and Ibadan from 2012 to 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag model and asymmetric error correction model were adopted to test the asymmetry of vertical price transmission. Findings Results suggest that price transmission in Kano is symmetric, but it is asymmetric in Ibadan. This distinction is caused by the differences in the market structure (in terms of competition level, inventory period and transaction cost) of these cities. Originality/value This is the first study to empirically investigate the vertical price transmission in two Nigerian cowpea markets. It is also the first to reveal the role of the market structure in price transmission through a comparison of two markets. The findings provide policy implications and will help create a more efficient food market in Nigeria.

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate on money demand in Nigeria: evidence from the new broad money aggregate (M3)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Udoma Johnson Afangideh ◽  
Tuwe Soro Garbobiya ◽  
Farida Bello Umar ◽  
Nuruddeen Usman ◽  
Victor Unekwu Ocheni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

PurposeThis paper is focused on determining the asymmetric effects of exchange rate on money demand function in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachIt employs the empirical model of Baumol–Tobin. Baumol (1952), which was founded on the opportunity and transaction cost of holding money. Monetary aggregates, M1, M2 and M3, are used for the real money balances based on the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing procedure.FindingsThe results indicate that the positive and negative partial sum of exchange rate changes differ in magnitude and size, supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Nigeria.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to consider the new broad money aggregate (M3).

scholarly journals Dollarization in Sierra Leone: Evidence and Some Policy Options

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE ◽  
Amadu JALLOH
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Main Determinants

This study aims to empirically investigate the determinants of dollarization in Sierra. It uses quarterly data from 1992Q1 to 2017Q4 and autoregressive distributed lag Bound Testing technique. Both the long and short run results revealed that inflation, exchange rate depreciation, financial deepening and war dummy were the main determinants of dollarization in Sierra Leone during the study period. The error correction term depicts that 53 percent of any disequilibrium in dollarization will be corrected within a year. A key policy recommendation is that policy makers should implement prudent policies that will ensure broader macroeconomic stability (including price stability and exchange rate stability) as a recipe for de-dollarization in Sierra Leone.

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