Enlightening grey portions of energy security towards sustainability

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Soni ◽  
Surya Prakash Singh ◽  
Devinder Kumar Banwet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Projects ◽  
Priority Order

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine priority order of Indian energy sector projects on investments and strategic dimension angles. Grey System Theory (GST) and COmplex PRroportional ASsessment (COPRAS-G) method, a flexible multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) analyses, is used for this purpose to prioritize Indian energy sector projects, namely, coal, gas, hydro, solar and nuclear. Design/methodology/approach The GST-based MCDM approach of COPRAS is used. Five projects of energy sector are compared based on various grey criteria. These criteria were selected on the perspectives of life-cycle costing and management-thinking approach for prioritizing these projects. The GST-based COPRAS-G is described, and results are discussed to draw a strategic road map for measuring the sustainability in the energy sector. Findings On applying COPRAS-G on five energy projects, solar projects get high-priority order, and realistic scenario of results shows that renewable energy projects are preferred over the conventional projects such as coal and gas. Research limitations/implications Here, COPRAS-G method is used as MCDM techniques. However, few other MCDM techniques such as fuzzy Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evolution, elimination and choice expressing reality and efficiency analysis technique with output satisficing can be also explored to outrank various Indian energy sector projects. Practical implications Indian energy sector involves high degree of complexity, and, therefore, it needs more flexibility to overcome the present barriers of effective decision-making. Grey decision theory-based method like COPRAS-G is able to address energy security dimensions on different scenario of energy supply, i.e. pessimistic, optimistic and realistic, precisely. Social implications The results can provide guidance to the government or public sector regarding various possible investment options for energy supply and can help in drawing a rough trajectory of strategy toward energy security of the country. Originality/value This paper can supplement and act as the support for decision-making in conflicting situations specifically to have outlook of the sub-sector project on different flexible scenarios. Moreover, such work can synergize conflicting ideas of decision makers and various stakeholders of the Indian energy sector.

“Systematic inquiry for energy security and sustainability”(a case study approach for India using SAP-LAP framework)

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 352-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Soni ◽  
S.P. Singh ◽  
Devinder Kumar Banwet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Present Situation ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Projects

Purpose Energy supply delivered via various energy projects is an important aspect of energy security for India. Managing supply through various capacity additions for providing continuous electricity 24×7 by 2019 is a significant challenge for the country. In this context, there is a need to assess the present situation of energy generation from the traditional energy projects that are being installed for the purpose of capacity addition. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to develop an inquiry model based on situation-actor-process (SAP), learning-action-performance (LAP) for the Indian energy and power sectors to analyze the status of the supply side of energy security. Design/methodology/approach A SAP-LAP model is used to synthesize the situations of both the energy and power sectors. For both systems, inquiry- and matrices-based SAP-LAP models have been considered for this purpose. The situation is presented for various issues related to the execution of different types of energy projects. Actors in these sectors are classified by those who are responsible and engaged in the execution of various energy projects. For demonstration purposes, only a thermal energy project is highlighted in this case study. Based on the synthesis of SAP elements, various LAP elements are analyzed which leads to lessons that may be learnt from the case. Suitable actions are identified, followed by an assessment of their impact on the performance of the energy projects. Findings By developing a framework for a SAP-LAP model for the assessment of energy security, it was found that both sectors need more investment for their sustainable growth and that the actors identified should be proactive in their decision making. Decision making should be based on the sustainable management practices of life cycle management and life cycle costing for the better utilization of energy resources to strengthen overall energy security. Research limitations/implications The SAP-LAP analysis is used to explain the supply side of energy security in a managerial context, as applied in the case of the Indian energy and power sectors. However, some other quantitative multiple-criteria decision-making techniques like the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations, the complex proportional assessment of alternatives, the analytic hierarchy process or qualitative interactions assessment techniques such as interpretive structural modeling (ISM), total interpretive structural modeling (TISM) or the interpretive ranking process can also be explored for the development of an energy security framework. Practical implications The synthesis of SAP leads to LAP, which bridges the gap by suggesting improvement actions based on learning from the present situation of power supply, from actors in the industry and from existing processes. The model presents the situation of energy security in terms of the timely execution of energy projects and their impacts on the gross domestic product of the country. Social implications The framework for learning can provide information to the various stakeholders, investors and sector organizations inquiring about various issues related to energy projects and supporting the idea for energy security and sustainability. Originality/value The SAP-LAP model is a novel approach for analyzing the present status of energy supply performance in a single model, which can act as the support for decision making in conflicting situations, specifically the conflicting nature of the Indian energy and power sectors.

scholarly journals Digitizing grey portions of e-governance

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Soni ◽  
Prasanta Kumar Dey ◽  
Rashmi Anand ◽  
Charru Malhotra ◽  
Devinder Kumar Banwet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Strategic Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Breaches ◽  
Support Decision Making

Purpose The purpose of this research paper is to assess e-governance efficacy in various sectors of India. The paper develops on Grey System Theory (GST) methodology and enlightens grey portions of e-governance in select sectors. Research study identifies few grey criteria which affect implementation of information and communication technology (ICT) applications to support sustainable e-governance. Such criteria are related to information security breaches, information technology (IT) policy implementation, investments and strategic advantages for the various sector developments. Design/methodology/approach Considering “information” as a sensitive element to security for administration and part of dark portion to Indian economy, GST-based COmplex PRroportional ASsessment (COPRAS-G) method is adopted to assess the e-governance efficacy. The method provides flexible multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach to assess e-governance in prioritizing the sector alternatives of future strategic development. Priority order of select sectors is estimated, and COPRAS-G method is used in the research study to support decision-making on e-governance. Study compares ten major gross domestic product-dependent sectors based on few grey criteria. These criteria are chosen based on authors’ perspective on this study and feedback received from government officials of district levels under the Digital India-training programme. To address the subjectivity that lies in e-governance grey areas of sector, criteria are also weighted using fuzzy scale. Later methodology-based results are presented to draw a strategic road map for strategic development of the country. Findings On applying COPRAS-G method to predict pessimistic, optimistic and realistic scenarios of e-governance implementation across the ten sectors, high priory order in realistic scenario of results shows that implementation of ICT applications for e-governance should be in the sectors such as environment, climate change and in the railways. Industrial sector is also ranked as the preferred one over the other sectors on the basis of e-governance efficacy assessment. Research limitations/implications Here COPRAS-G method is used as MCDM techniques. However, few other MCDM techniques such as GRA, DRSA, VIKOR, SMAA, SWARA and SAW can be also explored to outrank various Indian sectors to deal with subjectivity in decision-making. Practical implications Implementation of ICT applications to support e-governance varies from sector to sector. ICT-based governance involves high degree of complexity in driving the operations for development of respective sectors. Therefore, government and policymakers need more flexibility to overcome present barriers of sector development. Such research can support decision-making where GST-based COPRAS-G method is able to capture and address the breaches of information security. Moreover, management concern for sector development has been presented on the basis of pessimistic, optimistic and realistic scenarios more precisely. Social implications The results can provide guidance to the academicians, policymakers and public sectors highlighting various possible measures to handle the security breaches in multi-facet intention of sustainable development. The outcomes from MCDM framework can also help in drawing a rough trajectory of strategy, i.e. development of ICTs applications and e-governance process. Originality/value This paper can supplement and act as the support for decision-making in conflicting situations on different flexible scenarios. Moreover, such work can synergize conflicting ideas of decision makers, academics and various other stakeholders of the Indian IT sector.

A grey-based decision-making approach to the supplier selection problem in a steelmaking company

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 385-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali M. Abdulshahed ◽  
Ibrahim A. Badi ◽  
Mohamed Mehemed Blaow
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Supplier Selection ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Selection Problem ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a supplier selection method using grey system theory for a steelmaking company in Libya. Design/methodology/approach In order to tackle incompleteness and imprecision of human’s judgments, grey numbers were used. This work uses a grey-based approach to represent decision makers’ comparison judgments and extent analysis method to select the best supplier. Therefore, an example of a selection problem of a steelmaking company in Libya was used to illustrate the proposed approach. Findings Supplier selection in a supply chain is a critical strategic decision for company’s success and has attracted much attention of both academic scholars and decision makers. The authors have found that the Grey model can play an important role in improving supplier selection strategy, especially when it is in a situation where complex sustainability environments (i.e. Libya) exist. Originality/value No literature has been found till date for selection of supplier using grey system theory in a steelmaking company in Libya. An attempt in this regard could enhance a decision-making technique for selecting the best suppliers for the selected case company.

Precise decisions in Indian energy sector by imprecise evaluation

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Soni ◽  
Surya Prakash Singh ◽  
Devinder Kumar Banwet
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Graphical Analysis ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Projects ◽  
Outranking Methods ◽  
The Government ◽  
Management Approaches ◽  
Effective Decision Making

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to prioritize Indian energy sector projects, namely, coal, gas, hydro and solar using fuzzy PROMETHHE (F-PROMETHEE) and Visual PROMETHEE applications and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The MCDM outranking approach of PROMETHEE under fuzzy environment is used. Four projects of energy sector are selected as alternatives and are compared based on various criteria. These criteria selected on the perspectives of life cycle costing (LCC) analysis and related management approaches for prioritizing projects for effective decision-making (DM). The F-PROMETHEE is described and results are also compared with outranking application in Visual PROMETHEE software based on same set of criteria. For better understanding, the graphical representations of the multicriteria problem are also shown using graphical analysis for interactive aid. Findings – On applying F-PROMETHEE on four energy projects, coal and solar projects outrank high and results shows that coal-based project is preferable and should be considered. Research limitations/implications – Here F-PROMETHEE and Visual PROMETHEE are used as MCDM techniques. However, few other MCDM techniques such as ELECTRE and EATWOS can be also explored to outrank Indian energy sector projects. Practical implications – Indian energy sector involves high degree of complexity for effective DM on the front of prioritized investment-related capacity addition through energy projects. Outranking methods like F-PROMETHEE is able to address the criteria to criteria impact on DM support precisely. Social implications – The finding can provide information to the government or public sector regarding various possible investment options on energy projects in India. Originality/value – This paper can be supplement and act as the support for DM in conflicting situations specifically for prioritizing investments on various energy projects, which further can synergize conflicting ideas of various stakeholders of the Indian energy sector.

scholarly journals A New Grey Approach for Using SWARA and PIPRECIA Methods in a Group Decision-Making Environment

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 1554
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Muzafer Saračević ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Criteria Weights

The environment in which the decision-making process takes place is often characterized by uncertainty and vagueness and, because of that, sometimes it is very hard to express the criteria weights with crisp numbers. Therefore, the application of the Grey System Theory, i.e., grey numbers, in this case, is very convenient when it comes to determination of the criteria weights with partially known information. Besides, the criteria weights have a significant role in the multiple criteria decision-making process. Many ordinary multiple criteria decision-making methods are adapted for using grey numbers, and this is the case in this article as well. A new grey extension of the certain multiple criteria decision-making methods for the determination of the criteria weights is proposed. Therefore, the article aims to propose a new extension of the Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and PIvot Pairwise Relative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA) methods adapted for group decision-making. In the proposed approach, attitudes of decision-makers are transformed into grey group attitudes, which allows taking advantage of the benefit that grey numbers provide over crisp numbers. The main advantage of the proposed approach in relation to the use of crisp numbers is the ability to conduct different analyses, i.e., considering different scenarios, such as pessimistic, optimistic, and so on. By varying the value of the whitening coefficient, different weights of the criteria can be obtained, and it should be emphasized that this approach gives the same weights as in the case of crisp numbers when the whitening coefficient has a value of 0.5. In addition, in this approach, the grey number was formed based on the median value of collected responses because it better maintains the deviation from the normal distribution of the collected responses. The application of the proposed approach was considered through two numerical illustrations, based on which appropriate conclusions were drawn.

Grey-based model for forecasting Mauritius international tourism from different regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Medha Pirthee
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Models ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the trend and forecast the number of tourists from different regions of the world to Mauritius. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts two grey system models, the even model GM(1,1) and the non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM), to forecast the total number of international tourism to Mauritius and its structure from different regions tourist arrivals to Mauritius for the next three years. Grey system theory models were used to account for uncertainties and the dynamism of the tourism sector environment. The two models were applied as a comparison to obtain more reliable forecasting figures. Findings The results demonstrate that both of the grey system models can be successfully applied with high accuracy for Mauritian tourism prediction, and also the number of tourist arrivals to Mauritius shows a continued augmentation for the upcoming years. Practical implications Forecasting is meaningful since the Government of Mauritius, private companies or any concerned authority can adopt the forecasting methods exposed in this paper for the development of the tourism sector through managerial and economic decision making. Originality/value Mauritius is a charming travel destination. Through this paper, it can be seen that future tourism travel to Mauritius has been successfully predicted based on previous data. Moreover, it seems that the grey system theory models have not been utilised yet as forecasting tools for the tourism sector of Mauritius as opposed to other countries such as China and Taiwan.

Selection of lean manufacturing systems using the PROMETHEE

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Anand ◽  
Rambabu Kodali
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Lean Manufacturing ◽  
Manufacturing Systems ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Computer Integrated Manufacturing ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Manufacturing Strategy ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Content Type

PurposeIn recent years, many manufacturing companies are attempting to implement lean manufacturing systems (LMS) as an effective manufacturing strategy to survive in a highly competitive market. Such a process of selecting a suitable manufacturing system is highly complex and strategic in nature. The paper aims to how companies make a strategic decision of selecting LMS as part of their manufacturing strategy, and on what basis such strategic decisions are made by the managers.Design/methodology/approachA case study of a small‐ and medium‐sized enterprise is presented, in which the managers are contemplating on implementing either computer integrated manufacturing systems (CIMS) or LMS. To supplement the decision‐making process, a multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) model, namely, the preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used to analyse how it will impact the stakeholders of the organisation, and the benefits gained.FindingsAn extensive analysis of PROMETHEE model revealed that LMS was the best for the given circumstances of the case.Research limitations/implicationsThe same problem can be extended by incorporating the constraints (such as financial, technical, social) of the organisation by utilising an extended version of PROMETHEE called the PROMETHEE V. Since, a single case study approach has been utilised, the findings cannot be generalized for any other industry.Practical limitations/implicationsThe methodology of PROMETHEE and its algorithm has been demonstrated in a detailed way and it is believed that it will be useful for managers to apply such MCDM tools to supplement their decision‐making efforts.Originality/valueAccording to the authors’ knowledge there is no paper in the literature, which discusses the application of PROMETHEE in making a strategic decision of implementing LMS as a part of an organisation's manufacturing strategy.

Evaluation of outpatient satisfaction and service quality of Pakistani healthcare projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 462-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Ahmed Javed ◽  
Sifeng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Healthcare Delivery ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Healthcare Delivery System ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between outpatient satisfaction and the five constructs of healthcare projects’ service quality in Pakistan using Deng’s grey incidence analysis (GIA) model, absolute degree GIA model (ADGIA), a novel second synthetic degree GIA (SSDGIA) model and two approaches of decision-making under uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe study proposes a new synthetic GIA model and demonstrates its feasibility on data (N=221) collected from both public and private sector healthcare projects of Punjab, the most populous province of Pakistan, using a self-administered questionnaire developed using the original SERVQUAL approach.FindingsThe results of decision analysis approach indicated that outpatients’ satisfaction from the private sector healthcare projects is higher as compared to the public healthcare projects’. The results from the proposed model revealed that tangibility and reliability play an important role in shaping the patient satisfaction in the public and private sectors, respectively.Originality/valueThe study is pioneer in evaluating a healthcare system’s service quality using grey system theory. The study proposes the SSDGIA model as a novel method to evaluate parameters comprehensively based on their mutual association (given by absolute degree of grey incidence) and inter-dependencies (given by Deng’s degree of grey incidence), and tests the new model in the given scenario. The study is novel in terms of its analysis of data and modelling. The study also proposes a comprehensive structure of the healthcare delivery system of Pakistan.

Identifying key industry factors of remanufacturing industry using grey incidence analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjie Liu ◽  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Chenfan Wu ◽  
Xiangyun Chang
Keyword(s):  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Annual Sale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Area ◽  
Industry Characteristic ◽  
Grey Incidence Analysis ◽  
Incidence Analysis ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Key Industry

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify most favorable (or quasi-preferred) industry characteristics of remanufacturing industry and most favorable (or quasi-preferred) industry factors which have an effect on these characteristics so as to improve these factors. Design/methodology/approach Grey system theory has prominent advantage of using few data and uncertainty information to analyze many factors. Therefore, it is more suited for system analysis than traditional statistical analysis methods like regression analysis, variance analysis and principal component analysis, which require massive data, certain probability distribution in the data and few variant factors. So in this paper, grey incidence analysis method, which is an important part of grey system theory, is used to identify industry characteristics and key industry factor of remanufacturing industry in China and then put forward appropriate industrial policies and countermeasures to improve these industry factors. Findings According to the results of this study, it reveals that there are no most favorable industry characteristics and no most favorable industry factors in remanufacturing industry of China. “Annual sale of remanufacturing industry” is identified as quasi-preferred industry characteristic, and “total number of employees with master degree or above in remanufacturing enterprise” is identified as the quasi-preferred industry factor. “Total building area of remanufacturing enterprise” is referred as the most unfavorable industry factors. Practical implications Judging from the findings of this study, four practical implications are summarized as follows: “annual sale of remanufacturing industry” should be given great importance because it is a quasi-preferred industry characteristic. “Total number of employees with master degree or above in remanufacturing enterprise” and “total number of research institution and university participated in remanufacturing” should be further strengthened by establishing an industry-university-research institute collaboration network, due to the fact that they are the top two quasi-preferred industry factors. “Total investment of remanufacturing industry” and “total annual R&D expenditures” have not played their due role in improving remanufacturing industry, so they should be moderately controlled so as to reduce waste of investment. “Total building area of remanufacturing enterprise” must be strictly controlled because of its little impact on remanufacturing industry. Originality/value In this research, grey incidence analysis is applied to identify key industry factors of remanufacturing industry for the first time. It helps in finding industry factors which are in urgent need of improvement and assists in making appropriate industrial policies and countermeasures to improve them by studying relationships between industry characteristic and industry factors.

First price sealed-bid auction of the grey game improvement model via double-parameter Bayesian estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Deng ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Zhigeng Fang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sealed Bid ◽  
Grey Number ◽  
Improved Model ◽  
Specific Implementation

PurposeThe improved classical model makes it possible that the evaluation strategy has an optimal tendency, which reveals the purpose of this paper is to facilitate the first price sealed-bid auction more in line with the actual situation. To be more specific, there are several merits in the improvement process. On the one hand, the bid-winning probability can be improved for the bidder; on the other hand, the real market value of the subject matter can be more clearly recognized for the employer.Design/methodology/approachBayesian estimation and grey system theory are referenced in this paper, with the use of double-parameter estimation, little historical data and expert experience. Specific implementation steps are as follows: first of all, using the double-parameter Bayesian estimation to correct the actual valuation of the bid matter v, then introducing the threat factor grey number R in the auction model, giving the improving of the optimal grey quotation and grey expectation utility under the two-party game and finally taking the aerospace component procurement as an example, simulating the bidding process of the bidding parties to arrive at the optimal bid strategy.FindingsThe improved model shows that the optimal strategy will change with the threat factor rather than a fixed value. When the threat factor grey number R follows [0.4, 0.6], the optimal quotation strategy will appear, which means quotation is higher than 50% of the bid matter's valuation.Practical implicationsThe improved model proposed in this paper can strengthen the cost control in the Chinese commercial space process and optimize the pricing strategy for the final launch.Originality/valueThe modified model changes the habit that the bidder's valuation of the bid subject to mainly come from experience and to prompt the model for making full use of little historical data on the foundation of the former. It can reduce the subjective judgment error in the game results; finally, the practical cases are simulated in MATLAB at the same time, and the simulation effect is good, so we can get some more realistic conclusions on this basis.

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