Does tourism affect house prices in Turkey? Evidence from smooth structural break tests

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım ◽  
Cagin Karul
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Substantial Role ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on house prices in Turkey from January 2010 to March 2020. Design/methodology/approach It is used newly developed cointegration and causality tests based on Fourier approximation. These methods consider smooth structural breaks and do not need to recognize a priori date number and/or form of breaks. Findings Empirical findings show that international tourism activities have a substantial role in the escalation of house prices in Turkey. Findings also indicate a rise in industrial production enhances house prices while the mortgage lending rate exhibits a negative influence on house prices. Additionally, the evidence from Fourier causality tests reveals the unilateral causal linkage from tourism to house prices. This situation also shows that the tourism sector has a substantial role in stabilizing house prices’ rapid rise as a policy implication. Originality/value Although a large number of papers have been analyzing the link between house prices and macroeconomic variables, this study eliminates the lack of papers examining the link between tourism and house prices in Turkey by using the new cointegration and causality methods that consider smooth structural changes.

scholarly journals A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tze-Haw Chan ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Chee-Wooi Hooy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Collaboration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to focus on the impact of China's export expansion on Malaysian monthly trading with to her 12 major trading partners over the liberalization era. Design/methodology/approach – The analytical framework comprises of both the export and trade balance models. Unit root and cointegration tests with break and error correction modeling are employed in the analyses. Findings – Regime shifts are evident in the long run where structural break(s) found mostly coincides with the Asia crisis and China's accession into WTO. While the income effects are more apparent in most cases, the real exchanges are rather insignificant and incorrectly signed for Malaysian bilateral trading. Besides, the trade balance estimation is generally more consistent that the Chinese exports have exhibited complementary effects in the long-run, mainly for advanced export destination such as Australia, Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. On the whole, there is insufficient evidence to support the “PRC competitive threat”. Practical implications – The empirical evidence disfavors currency devaluation for current account correction and reveals that the fear for China effect might be over-projected. Closer regional collaboration and trade integration between the two nations are well expected. Originality/value – The paper assesses the China's crowding out effect and magnitudes of Malaysian export and trade balance elasticities with model specifications that consider structural breaks. The paper also assesses the macro dimension of income and real exchanges effects.

scholarly journals The Identification of Precursor Regulation Impact on the Methamphetamine Market and Public Health Indicators in the Czech Republic: Time Series Structural Break Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 7840
Author(s):  
Benjamin Petruželka ◽  
Miroslav Barták
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Drug Market ◽  
Test Framework ◽  
The Impact

Background: This study provides insight into the impact of methamphetamine precursor regulation, which is considered to be one of the most important tools of supply reduction and a tool with potential public health impact. Methods: It is based on a longitudinal and quasi-experimental design and it investigates the changes of methamphetamine precursor regulation in Czech Republic, which is treated as a natural experiment. The statistical analysis uses features from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test framework to estimate structural changes in the methamphetamine-related arrests and nonfatal intoxications time series. Results: The analysis identified structural breaks in the majority of the methamphetamine drug market-related time series in the period related to the tightening of regulation. The results of this study show that methamphetamine precursor regulation was associated with the proliferation of international and organized crime groups and with no change in the overall number of arrests and nonfatal intoxications. Conclusions: The precursor regulation ceteris paribus plausibly leads to the change in drug supply towards more organized groups and to an increasing involvement of foreign nationals at the drug market and is not effective in suppressing the methamphetamine market and in reducing the public health indicator of nonfatal methamphetamine intoxications.

scholarly journals Assessing the risk of the European Union carbon allowance market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anupam Dutta ◽  
Naji Jalkh ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Probal Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emission Allowance ◽  
Volatility Persistence ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of structural breaks on the conditional variance of carbon emission allowance prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ the symmetric GARCH model, and two asymmetric models, namely the exponential GARCH and the threshold GARCH. Findings The authors show that the forecast performance of GARCH models improves after accounting for potential structural changes. Importantly, we observe a significant drop in the volatility persistence of emission prices. In addition, the effects of positive and negative shocks on carbon market volatility increase when breaks are taken into account. Overall, the findings reveal that when structural breaks are ignored in the emission price risk, the volatility persistence is overestimated and the news impact is underestimated. Originality/value The authors are the first to examine how the conditional variance of carbon emission allowance prices reacts to structural breaks.

scholarly journals Long-term relationship of crude palm oil commodity pricing under structural break

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-174
Author(s):  
Monsurat Ayojimi Salami ◽  
Razali Haron
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Reference Price ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pricing Efficiency ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the pricing efficiency of the Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) market before and after the structural break. This study uses the daily closing price of CPO and CPO futures (CPO-F) for the period ranging from June 2009 to August 2016 while taking structural breaks into account.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, symmetric and asymmetric long-run relationship model are employed, such as the Johansen cointegration, VECM, TAR and M-TAR models, to examine the impact of structural breaks on the pricing efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market.FindingsThis finding establish that Malaysian CPO price is efficient before and after the structural break. The consistent efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market supports the trading of the CPO-F in Globex and the use of Malaysian CPO pricing as the reference price. This study establishes that a structural break in the Malaysian CPO price series does not affect the pricing efficiency of the market.Research limitations/implicationsThis study shows that using Malaysian CPO price as a reference price is sustainable even in the event of a structural break. Therefore, market participants in the Malaysian CPO market have less to worry about the CPO price as it supports the weak form of efficiency. Price deviation in the short run may not lead to arbitrage profit as transaction cost may not be covered.Practical implicationsThis study implies that if there is distortion in the price due to shocks, both manufacturers and producers need to hedge their positions in the futures market (subject to their positions in the underlying market). By entering into the futures market, pricing is locked in advance; hence, price risk is eliminated. Such a distortion could also affect the efficiency of the CPO price, therefore this study also addresses the issue of efficiency of the local CPO market.Originality/valuePrevious studies on Malaysian CPO pricing efficiency did not take the effect of structural break into consideration, making it difficult for these studies to show consistency in the efficiency of the Malaysian CPO market.

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

Driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqi Feng ◽  
Tianshu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea. This paper gives the answers for the following questions: How do China’s final demands trigger the growth of its imports from Korea? And what’s the impact of China’s final demands on the import in different industries? Design/methodology/approach Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output model and World Input-Output Table database, this paper constructs the non-competitive imports input-output (IO) table of China to Korea. According to this table, we can calculate the induced imports coefficient and comprehensive induced import coefficients of China’s four final demands for imports from Korea in the 56 industries in China. Findings Among the four driving forces, the strongest one is changes in inventories and valuables. The impact of final consumption expenditure and fixed capital formation is much lower than that of changes in inventories and valuables, but they have a broader impact for the 56 industries. This paper finds out the China’s import induction of the final demands to Korea peaked in 2005 and 2010 and decreased greatly in 2014, so the position of China as market provider for Korea will no longer rise substantially, contrarily it will be in a steady state. Originality/value First, this paper constructs the non-competitive IO table to analyze the market provider issues between two countries and provides practical ways and methods for studies on the issues of imports and market provider. Second, this paper investigates the different roles of four final demands on driving force of China as market provider for Korea and the structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea among 56 industries from 2000 to 2014.

Understanding Affordability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Meen ◽  
Christine Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Developed World ◽  
The Impact

Affordability is, perhaps, the greatest housing problem facing households today, both in the UK and internationally. Even though most households are now well housed, hardship is disproportionately concentrated among low-income and younger households. Our failure to deal with their problems is what makes housing so frustrating. But, to improve outcomes, we have to understand the complex economic and political forces which underlie their continued prevalence. There are no costless solutions, but there are new policy directions that can be explored in addition to those that have dominated in recent years. The first, analytic, part of the book considers the factors that determine house prices and rents, household formation and tenure, housing construction and the roles played by housing finance and taxation. The second part turns to examine the impact of past policy and the possibilities for improvement - discussing supply and the impact of planning regulation, supply subsidies, subsidies to low-income tenants and attempts to increase home ownership. Rather than advocating a particular set of policies, the aim is to consider the balance of policies; the constraints under which housing policy operates; what can realistically be achieved; the structural changes that would need to occur; and the significant sacrifices that would have to be made by some groups if there are to be improvements for others. Our emphasis is on the UK but throughout the book we also draw on international experience and our conclusions have relevance to analysts and policy makers across the developed world.

Transnationality in the XXI century. Concept and indicators

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Grazia Ietto-Gillies
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Transnational Corporation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Degree ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Inclusive Concept ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of major structural changes on the conceptualization of the transnational corporation (TNC) based on foreign direct investment (FDI) and on indicators of transnationality. Design/methodology/approach Analysis of three major structural changes which impact the current conception of transnationality. They are: the rise of digital companies; the increased role of finance in the economy; externalization of activities via non-equity modalities (NEMs) with an impact on FDI and on the labour market. Findings The paper finds that the current concept of transnationality needs widening to take account of companies with a low degree of fixed assets abroad such as the digital and the financial companies and those internationalizing via NEMs, as well as to take account of the evolving relationship between TNCs and labour. Research limitations/implications Future research along the lines proposed should consider: working explicitly with the new, inclusive concept of transnationality and arrive at an empirical estimate of the proposed indices of transnationality which modify and amplify the current United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indices. Social implications Useful for understanding the nature of transnationality in the twenty-first century and for developing policies. Originality/value The paper proposes a new concept of transnationality and of the TNC, one that allows for new ways of organizing direct business activities abroad. It also proposes broadening the list of indicators of transnationality.

The impact of employment relationships on firm sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Rincon-Roldan ◽  
Alvaro Lopez-Cabrales
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Chief Executive Officers ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Employment Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Employment Relationships ◽  
Hr Managers ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe aim of this study was to analyse the influence of different employment relationships (ERs) on the sustainability results of cooperatives. The authors approached the type of ER comparing the inducements offered by the firm with the contributions that the manager expects from employees. In this way, the authors study how the orientation toward the employment relationship influences the economic, social and environmental sustainability of the firm.Design/methodology/approachThis article presents a theoretical and empirical research model about the relationship between ERs and sustainability. The necessary information was obtained through a questionnaire that was completed by the human resource (HR) managers and chief executive officers (CEOs) of 124 cooperative companies, and structural equation modelling was applied to evaluate the relationships between the proposed constructs, using the partial least squares technique (PLS-SEM).FindingsThe obtained results suggest that mutual investment and overinvestment ERs favour economic, social and environmental sustainability, whereas quasi spot contract and underinvestment ERs have a negative influence on all three types of sustainability. Therefore, it is confirmed that the type of ER adopted can condition the sustainability of the company, either favouring or worsening it.Originality/valueThis work contributes to covering the lack of studies about which ERs impact the sustainability of organisations, and it provides information on the role of ERs in the search for a more sustainable organisation, demonstrating that the type of employment relationship developed by the firm has a relevant impact on its sustainability.

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