Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates in South Asian economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-119
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umar Draz ◽  
Fayyaz Ahmad ◽  
Bhumika Gupta ◽  
Waqas Amin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rates of selected South Asian economies during 1981-2013. Design/methodology/approach The authors have used two econometric approaches to the data. For the pooled sample, estimated generalized least square (EGLS) and the two-stage least square method are applied. For the panel data, the authors have used the panel generalized method of moments and ordinary least squares (OLS) methods. Findings The results suggest that macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on exchange rates. The robust findings highlight that improvements in domestic economic and political systems are crucial for a successful exchange rate policy. Originality/value The existing literature on exchange rate fundamentals have either focused on exchange rates and international trade or investigated the relationship for the developed economies. Covering a period of more than three decades, and using both pooled and panel estimations, our study is unique in terms of its focus on the South Asian economies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

Impact of exchange rate movement and macro-economic factors on exports of software and services from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1193-1206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parijat Upadhyay ◽  
Saikat Ghosh Roy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Software Services

Purpose – The information technology (IT) sector in India is the leading exporter from the service sector domain and also is a significant contributor to the overall export kitty of India. The IT sector’s contribution in total Indian exports (merchandise plus services) increased from less than 4 percent in FY1998-1999 to about 25 percent in FY2011-2012 as per IT industry nodal body National Association of Software and Services Companies and the central bank of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). As this industry earns most of its revenue in foreign currencies it is exposed to the foreign exchange risks. The purpose of this paper is to validate the macro-economic theory that depreciation in domestic currency boosts export as it makes domestic good and services cheaper and appreciation in domestic currency deters export as it makes domestic good and services costlier. The authors are validating this theory for Indian rupee and keeping software services export in the focus. Design/methodology/approach – In this study the authors have done the multiple regression analysis on the obtained time-series data. The research was totally based on the secondary data from Quarter1 (April-June) of FY 2000-2001 to Quarter4 (January-March) of FY 2011-2012. It comprises of data for 48 consecutive quarters. The authors have taken the growth rate, so the final data set consist of data of 47 quarters. The main source of data are published data by RBI. Data have been collected for export of software services, merchandise export, real effective exchange rate, US-dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate, gross domestic product of India and selected countries. Findings – Data analysis leads the authors to the following findings: real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on software services export; US-dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate has no significant impact on software services export; external gross domestic product growth has no significant impact on software services export; and gross domestic product growth of India has no significant impact on software services export. The results obtained from multiple regression analysis are also supported by the results obtained from Granger Causality test. It does not identify any single factor as a major cause of software export. Results shows that the external GDP is having the statistically significant impact on the software export but the low value of R2 denotes that the impact is very low. Originality/value – There are no published studies available which has attempted similar kind of an approach to study using aggregated export data and other macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER) and GDP growth rate. All previous literatures used REER to measure the impact of the exchange rate on export.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Nigerian Agricultural Sector Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-20
Author(s):  
Okafor O. ◽  
Isibor A.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the impact of some macroeconomic variables like exchange rate and inflation on the development of the Nigerian agricultural industry. Annual time series secondary data covering a period of 33 years (1986- 2020) was utilized in the study while the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) was the estimation technique used to analyze the data. Findings revealed that the exchange rate was positively significant in impacting the dependent variable while the inflation rate was negatively significant. The interest rate was insignificant in impacting the agricultural sector. From the findings, one recommendation arrived at was that the monetary authorities should make policies that would reduce inflation, for example, reduction of the money supply. Reduced inflation would positively impact the development of the agricultural sector as it would boost and increase the consumption of agricultural products.

Does crime-tourism nexus hold for Pakistan?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ahad ◽  
Zaheer Anwer ◽  
Wasim Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Prices

PurposeThe primary objective of this study is to investigate the linkage of tourism and crime for Pakistan along with exchange rates, terrorism and domestic prices in the presence of structural breaks over the period 1984–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe order of integration is tested through ADF and PP unit root tests. The robustness of unit root test is testified via structural break unit root test. Furthermore, the authors use Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined cointegration test to confirm the existence of a long-term theoretical relationship among the variables. For the robustness of cointegration analysis, the authors also employ ARDL bound testing in the presence of structural break years. Moving forward, the authors apply VECM Granger causality to find out the direction of causality. Subsequently, variance decomposition approach and impulse response function are used to distinguish leader from the followers.FindingsThe unit root test shows that the order of integration is one, I(1). The cointegration analysis confirms the long-run relationship between underlying variables. The authors find inverse and significant impact of crime and exchange rate on tourism in the long run. On contrary, domestic prices play a positive and significant role to determine tourism in short and long run. Also, terrorism is found to be insignificant with negative impact. Further, the bidirectional causality between crime and tourism is observed in the long run. Similarly, unidirectional causality from terrorism to exchange and exchange rate to domestic price is observed in the short run.Originality/valueThe contemporary studies on crime-tourism nexus offer limited evidence, as they frequently suffer from omitted variable bias and ignore possible endogeneity issues. This study uses vector autoregressive models to overcome these biases. Similarly, the authors accommodate the role of structural break years through their analysis. Hence, the results offer more credible evidence. Moreover, the authors contribute to the existing tourism demand literature by adding crime as a potential determinate in case of Pakistan.

Exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 414-434
Author(s):  
Vaseem Akram ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in India using annual data from 1980 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach First, misalignment is measured, which is defined as the deviations of the actual real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) is estimated using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model by considering key macroeconomic fundamentals of the determinants of RER. Zivot and Andrews’ unit root with structural break is used to test the stationarity property of data. The impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth has been examined using ARDL and variance decomposition techniques. Findings Our results find an overvaluation of the exchange rate till 2000, and thereafter, an undervaluation of the exchange rate prevails in India. Further, the result indicates that an increase in exchange rate misalignment leads to a decrease in economic growth and vice versa. Moreover, a positive misalignment (overvaluation) hurts the economic growth and a negative misalignment (undervaluation) promotes the economic growth. Research limitations/implications From the policy perspective, the results highlight that India needs to maintain an appropriate exchange rate which can reduce the RER misalignment. It is better for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s intervention to smoothen the fluctuations of the exchange rate to avoid the inefficiency in the allocation of resources. However, to minimize the RER misalignment, the intervention should be conducted only in the short run. Originality/value The study contributes to the existing literature by estimating the exchange rate misalignment for India and its impact on economic growth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables And Savings Mobilization In Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
Peter A Okere ◽  
Michaelo Ndugbu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
The Impact

This research work analyzed the impact of macroeconomic variables on domestic savings mobilization in Nigeria (1993-2012).Secondary data was adopted and sourced from CBN statistical bulletin.Ordinary Least Square and cointegration were used to determine the effects of the selected macroeconomic variables on savings mobilization in Nigeria. The result of the overall statistic showed that there is a positive and significant impact between the selected macroeconomic variables and domestic savings mobilization in Nigeria. But specifically, financial deepening seemed to have a greater impact on savings mobilization in Nigeria. Inflation and exchange rate revealed an inverse relationship with domestic saving mobilization in Nigeria. Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) unit root test and cointegration proved that the variables are stationary and there exist a long-run relationship among the variables. The study therefore recommended among others that efforts should be geared towards continuous and well-articulated fiscal and monetary policies that will sustain this growth in the financial sector. Also, Government should ensure that adequate macroeconomic policies that will be put in place to attract foreign investors, encourage export and make Nigeria an export platform where export goods could be produced, this will help to strengthen Nigeria’s exchange rate and induce domestic savings. Finally, proper measures should be put into encourages banks to open branches in the rural areas in order to mop up deposits. The rural banking policies should be revisited modified and implemented in Nigeria.

Proprietary information and the cost of bank debt

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
HyunJun Na
Keyword(s):  
Least Square ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Contracts ◽  
Proprietary Information ◽  
Banking Deregulation ◽  
Interstate Banking ◽  
Innovative Firms ◽  
Bank Loan Contracts ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study explores how the firm’s proprietary information has an impact on the bank loan contracts. It explains the propensity of using the competitive bid option (CBO) in the syndicate loans to solicit the best bid for innovative firms and how it changes based on industry competition and the degree of innovations. This research also examines how the interstate banking deregulation (Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act) in 1994 affected the private loan contracts for innovative borrowers.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses various econometric analyses. First, it uses the propensity score matching analysis to see the impact of patents on pricing terms. Second, it uses the two-stage least square (2SLS) analysis by implementing the litigation and non-NYSE variables. Finally, it studies the impact of the policy change of the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 on the bank loan contracts.FindingsFirms with more proprietary information pays more annual facility fees but less other fees. The patents are the primary determinants of the usage of CBO in the syndicate loans to solicit the best bid. While innovative firms can have better contract conditions by the CBO, firms with more proprietary information will less likely to use the CBO option to minimize the leakage of private information and the severe monitoring from the banks. Finally, more proprietary information lowered the loan spread for firms dependent on the external capital after the interstate banking deregulation.Originality/valueThe findings of this research will help senior executives with responsibility for financing their innovative projects. In addition, these findings should prove helpful for the lawmakers to boost economies.

Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saidia Jeelani ◽  
Joity Tomar ◽  
Tapas Das ◽  
Seshanwita Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The article aims to study the relationship between those macroeconomic factors that the affect (INR/USD) exchange rate (ER). Time series data of 40 years on ER, GDP, inflation, interest rate (IR), FDI, money supply, trade balance (TB) and terms of trade (ToT) have been collected from the RBI website. The considered model has suggested that only inflation, TB and ToT have influenced the ER significantly during the study period. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP, FDI and IR have not significantly influenced the ER during the study period. The model is robust and does not suffer from residual heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and non-normality. Sometimes the relationship between ER and macroeconomic variables gets affected by major economic events. For example, the Southeast Asian crisis caused by currency depreciation in 1997 and sub-prime loan crisis of 2008 severely strained the national economies. Any global economic turmoil will affect different economic variables through ripple effect and this, in turn, will affect the ER of different economies differently. The article has also diagnosed whether there is any structural break or not in the model by applying Chow’s Breakpoint Test and have obtained multiple breaks between 2003 and 2009. The existence of structural breaks during 2003–2009 is explained by the fact that volume of crude oil imported by India is high and oil price rise led to a deficit in the TB alarmingly, which caused a structural break or parameter instability.

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