scholarly journals What influences real estate volatility in Hong Kong? An ARMA-GARCH approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shizhen Wang ◽  
David Hartzell
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
Price Determinants

Purpose This paper aims to examine real estate price volatility in Hong Kong. Monthly data on housing, offices, retail and factories in Hong Kong were analyzed from February 1993 to February 2019 to test whether volatility clusters are present in the real estate market. Real estate price determinants were also investigated. Design/methodology/approach Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–Lagrange multiplier test is used to examine the volatility clustering effects in these four kinds of real estate. An autoregressive and moving average model–generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to identify real estate price volatility determinants in Hong Kong. Findings There was volatility clustering in all four kinds of real estate. Determinants of price volatility vary among different types of real estate. In general, housing volatility in Hong Kong is influenced primarily by the foreign exchange rate (both RMB and USD), whereas commercial real estate is largely influenced by unemployment. The results of the exponential GARCH model show that there were no asymmetric effects in the Hong Kong real estate market. Research limitations/implications This volatility pattern has important implications for investors and policymakers. Residential and commercial real estate have different volatility determinants; investors may benefit from this when building a portfolio. The analysis and results are limited by the lack of data on real estate price determinants. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first study that evaluates volatility in the Hong Kong real estate market using the GARCH class model. Also, this paper is the first to investigate commercial real estate price determinants.

A post-global financial crisis (GFC) framework for strategic planning, assessment and management decision making for US sustainable commercial real estate

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 589-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pernille Hoy Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand both the facts and the values associated with the breadth of issues, and the principles related to sustainable real estate for institutional investors. Sustainable real estate is a growing sector within the commercial real estate industry, and yet, the decision-making practices of institutional investors related to sustainability are still not well understood. In an effort to fill that gap, this research investigates the post-global financial crisis (GFC) motivations driving the implementation of sustainability initiatives, the implementation strategies used, and the predominant eco-indicators and measures used by institutional investors. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the results of a three-round modified Delphi study conducted in the USA in 2011-2012 investigating the nature of performance measurements and reporting requirements in sustainable commercial real estate and their impact on the real estate decision-making process used by institutional investors. Two rounds of in-depth interviews were conducted with 14 expert panelists. An e-questionnaire was used in the third round to verify qualitative findings. Findings The key industry drivers and performance indicators influencing institutional investor decision making were associated with risk management of assets and whether initiatives can improve competitive market advantage. Industry leaders advocate for simple key performance indicators, which is in contrast to the literature which argues for the need to adopt common criteria and metrics. Key barriers to the adoption of sustainability initiatives are discussed and a decision framework is presented. Practical implications This research aims to help industry partners understand the drivers motivating institutional investors to uptake sustainability initiatives with the aim of improving decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable commercial office buildings. Originality/value Building on the four generations of the sustainability framework presented by Simons et al. (2001), this research argues that the US real estate market has yet again adjusted its relationship with sustainability and revises their framework to include a new, post-GFC generation for decision making, assessment, and management of sustainable real estate.

scholarly journals What sells in a crisis? Determinants of sale probability over a cycle and through a crash

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Scofield ◽  
Steven Devaney
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Selection ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Estate Cycle ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of variables and a number of time periods to identify key determinants of sale probability. Design/methodology/approach Analyzing 12,000 UK commercial real estate transactions (2003 to 2013) the authors use an innovative sampling technique akin to a perpetual inventory approach to generate a sample of held assets for each 12 month interval. Next, the authors use probit models to test how market, owner and property factors affect sale probability in different market environments. Findings The types of properties that are most likely to sell changes between strong and weak markets. Office and retail assets were more likely to sell than industrial both overall and in better market conditions, but were less likely to sell than industrial properties during the downturn from mid-2007 to mid-2009. Assets located in the City of London more likely to sell in both strong and weak markets. The behavior of different groups of owners changed over time, and this indicates that the type of owner might have implications for the liquidity of individual assets over and above their physical and locational attributes. Practical implications Variation in sale probability over time and across assets has implications for real estate investment management both in terms of asset selection and the ability to rebalance portfolios over the course of the cycle. Results also suggest that sample selection may be an issue for commercial real estate price indices around the globe and imply that indices based on a limited group of owners/sellers might be susceptible to further biases when tracking market performance through time. Originality/value The study differs from the existing literature on sale probability as the authors analyzed samples of transactions drawn from all investor types, a significant advantage over studies based on data restricted to samples of domestic institutional investors. As well, information on country of origin for buyers and sellers allows us to explore the influence of foreign ownership on the probability of sale. Finally, the authors not only analyze all transactions together, but the authors also look at transactions in five distinct periods that correspond with different phases of the UK commercial real estate cycle. This paper considers the UK real estate market, but it is likely that many of the findings hold for other major commercial real estate markets.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

A study on automated property management in commercial real estate: a case of India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taran Kaur ◽  
Priya Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Technology Acceptance ◽  
Stakeholder Management ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Property Management ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Domain

PurposeProperty management in commercial real estate (CRE) is an important operational function that needs to be managed because it brings large cost implications to the organization. As India aspires to become a developed real estate market, analysis of the growing importance of automating property services and technology acceptance by stakeholders are two key concerns that need to be explicitly addressed. This study aims to examine the extent of property technology (PropTech) adoption in India and propose a technology-enabled stakeholder management model in Indian CRE.Design/methodology/approachThe research is qualitative in nature and follows the grounded theory approach. Research data were collected by conducting a series of semi-structured interviews with 18 property management professionals from different prominent Indian companies using PropTech.FindingsThe findings suggested the nine most typical automated property management functions in Indian CRE. The result of this research is the automated property services model for stakeholder management in CRE. The model demonstrates the value of implementing technology in property services in India.Practical implicationsThe study provides useful insights into how artificial intelligence (AI) in property management can be applied to address property-related challenges, various stakeholder needs and improve property performance in accordance with energy efficiency policies.Originality/valueThis paper attempts to add to the limited body of literature on technology in the property management domain. The model demonstrates how automated property services meet the needs of different stakeholders in CRE and provides remote working procedures within the COVID-19 pandemic context.

scholarly journals Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Devaney
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Usa

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

What Influences the Real Estate Price Volatility in Hong Kong: An ARMA-GARCH Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shizhen Wang ◽  
David J. Hartzell
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Price

Real estate market cyclical dynamics

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hin/David Ho ◽  
Kwame Addae-Dapaah
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Price Response ◽  
Real Estate Cycle

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks? Design/methodology/approach – Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers. Findings – The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant. Practical implications – The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing. Originality/value – The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.

The value effects of green retrofits

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-319
Author(s):  
Dirk Brounen ◽  
Alexander Michael Groh ◽  
Martin Haran
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Value Capture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indirect Benefits

Purpose This paper aims to decompose the value effects of green retrofits on commercial real estate. The paper disentangles various sources of value capture mechanisms that can be attained through green retrofit actions and profiles the extent to which green retrofit solutions can be effectively capitalised using transaction evidence from the Munich housing market. The insights offered can help real estate owners and investors during their ex ante analysis of future energetic retrofit investments. Design/methodology/approach The authors offer their reader both a conceptual framework and the results from an empirical analysis to identify the value effects of retrofits and the associating gains in energy efficiency. The conceptual framework theorises the different value components that a deep retrofit has to offer. The regression analysis includes a multivariate analysis of 8,928 dwellings in the Munich residential real estate market. Findings This study’s framework disentangles the total retrofit value effect into three components: the capitalisation of energy savings, the exposure to the value discount because of stricter standards and the value uplift because of indirect benefits (health, employee satisfaction, marketing etc.). The regression results indicate that the value gains because of energy efficiency improvements are in the range of 2.4–7.4%, while the indirect benefits and reduced exposure to stricter standards amount to another 3%. Originality/value While numerous studies have investigated the upside value effects of energy efficiency in the real estate sector, there is scant academic research which has sought to evidence the value of green retrofit solutions and the extent to which this can be capitalised. Instrumentalising the various value effects of energetic retrofit that have been identified is not straightforward. At the same time, inadequate value capture of energetic retrofit effects could delay intervention timelines or aborting of proposed retrofit actions which should be of primary concern to policymakers and stakeholders tasked with the decarbonisation of real estate assets.

The effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-280
Author(s):  
Musa Alkali ◽  
Ibrahim Sipan ◽  
Muhammad Najib Razali
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of negative information on the volatility of real estate residential prices in Abuja, Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The empirical research covers a sample period of 17 years from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2017. The leverage effect of Abuja’s real estate residential price volatility is determined. Exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to determine the ARCH shock, GARCH persistence and the leverage effect of the volatility of residential prices in Abuja. Findings The research found that the volatility of real estate prices varies from one category of residential property to another. The leverage effect was found only in the price of two and three bedroom flats in Abuja. Originality/value The findings provide useful information on the volatility of real estate prices for real estate investors. The study has policy implications for the regulation of measures that gradually checkmate the patterns of volatility in the Nigerian real estate market. It also controls negative information (such as a fall of crude oil prices, high costs of building materials, inconsistency of macro-economic policies and insecurity and political uncertainty) which mainly raises the level of uncertainty in the market and exposes investors to risk.

scholarly journals The ideal type of valuer: expert, service provider or reporter? An investigation into prevailing role types in commercial valuation

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pim Klamer ◽  
Vincent Gruis ◽  
Cok Bakker
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Service Provider ◽  
Institutional Logics ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Technical Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judgement Bias

PurposeThe purpose of this paper aims to disclose shared beliefs and understandings about the concept of professionalism amongst Dutch commercial real estate valuers. It examines prevailing logics of action in a mature European valuation industry and reflects on the potential influence of these logics on the occurrence of judgement bias in valuation.Design/methodology/approachThe underlying study adopted a grounded theory approach to facilitate reflexive in-depth interview sessions with 20 experienced valuation professionals in the Netherlands. Emerging data on core categories of professionalism were initially identified and grouped; and subsequently conceptualised into ideal role types of valuers using institutional logics theory.FindingsThree different ideal types appear to guide Dutch valuation practice: the expert, the service provider and the reporter. The expert emphasises professional standards and technical quality, while the service provider advocates commercial quality and the reporter aims to uphold procedural quality. The authors find that the attention for technical quality associated with the expert role may be at risk of underexposure, fostering concerns about judgement quality and associated bias risks.Research limitations/implicationsThe potential impact of both commercial and bureaucratic logics on valuation quality may raise authoritative and educational concerns over judgement bias effects. However, while trends in professionalism may transcend national boundaries, the specifics of local real estate market structures and regulations require replication of results in other markets.Originality/valueInstitutional logics provide an alternative, socio-economic perspective on present-day valuer behaviour that progresses the understanding of the valuer–client relationship, thereby advancing the knowledge base on valuer judgement and client influence. Furthermore, the authors' role typology offers future research opportunities in terms of measurement and explanation of differences.

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