Filter rule performance in an emerging market: evidence from Qatari listed companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hesham I. Almujamed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
High Price ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Filter Rules

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of nine filter rules and test the validity of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE). Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the filter rule strategy employed by Fifield et al. (2005), which suggests that a buy signal occurs when a share’s price increases by X percent from the previous price. This strategy recommends that the share is held until its price declines by X percent from the subsequent high price. Any price changes below X percent are ignored. Additionally, using the theory of weak-form efficiency, this paper suggests that, if a stock market is efficient, an investor cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. To this end, the daily closing share prices of 44 companies listed on QSE are explored for 2004–2017. Findings The findings propose that QSE is not weak-form efficient because security prices are predictable. As such, investors who followed filter strategies based on past price information could have made profit. Sectoral analysis findings further suggest that firms in the consumer goods and services, industrial and insurance sectors are most efficiently priced amongst the QSE-traded companies. Practical implications The evidence may be plausibly helpful as supporting market participants and academics that suggest that selecting filter strategy is extremely important for determining the overall profitability of the trading strategy. Originality/value To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study on Qatar that examines the performance of filter rules relative to a passive investor in the context of trading rules with individual share prices for a new stock market. Furthermore, this study adds to the literature through the empirical finding that technical analysts using filter strategies could generate excess returns relative to the buy-and-hold strategy on new emerging stock markets. This study also suggests the levels of transparency and accounting disclosure are limited, which may help Qatari policy makers understand the QSE context. Therefore, it might lead them to introduce regulatory changes to improve the QSE’s efficiency level.

Are share prices of Gulf corporate council banks predictable? A time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-28
Author(s):  
Hesham I. Almujamed
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Accounting Disclosure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Future Evaluation

Purpose This research aimed to evaluate the predictability of moving-average strategies and examined the validity of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for securities of banks listed in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach Several statistical analyses and eight moving-average rules were employed where buy and sell signals were produced by comparing a security price’s short- and long-term moving averages. The study covered the daily closing share prices of 40 GCC-listed banks over the 18-year period ending 31 December 2017. Findings The results suggest that securities of banks in the GCC were not weak-form efficient because share prices were predictable. Investors who traded using moving-average strategies could generate higher profits. Analysis of variance found that securities of Kuwaiti banks were the most efficiently priced. Practical implications The findings supported the idea that profitability depended on the moving-average rules and country chosen. Transaction costs did not affect the returns obtained using different trading rules. Originality/value This work facilitates future evaluation of accounting disclosure environments as well as the market efficiency and the performance of securities in the GCC countries. The performance of moving average rules among representative countries that share similar characteristics was analyzed. Different market participants, including investors, analysts and regulators, can benefit from this study for decision-making. These results suggest that new regulations might be drafted that would improve the timeliness of accounting information and the banks’ level of efficiency.

The profitability of trading strategies from sharia-compliant and conventional banks in the GCC: a comparative study

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hesham I. AlMujamed
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Accounting Disclosure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Filter Rules

Purpose The purpose of this research was to examine the effectiveness of filter rules and investigate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on sample shares of shariah-compliant vs. conventional banks listed on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market. Design/methodology/approach Nine trading filter strategies with different statistical analyses were used as defined in the literature (Fifield et al., 2005; Almujamed et al., 2018). Daily closing equity prices of a sample of twenty shariah-compliant banks and twenty conventional banks were recorded over the 18-year period ending 31 December 2017. Findings Shares of shariah-compliant banks in the GCC were not weak-form efficient since trading based on past information was predictable, profitable and outperformed the corresponding naïve buy-and-hold trading strategy. Shares of conventional GCC banks underperformed Research limitations/implications This paper’s findings should be useful for central banks and capital market authorities in GCC countries for evaluation when considering new regulations or process changes. Limitations include small sample numbers and need for more recent evaluations of accounting disclosure levels. A wider range of data, statistical analyses and other trading strategies is needed. Potential investors (Muslim and non-Muslim), shariah supervisory boards, and preparers of financial statements can benefit from this study. Practical implications The results suggest that selection of trading strategy affects the success of the rule and that mid-sized filters are the best. Originality/value This is an innovative study comparing performance of shariah-compliant and conventional banks under different filter rules.

Physicist’s Point of View on the Way to Equilibrium and Efficiency of Stock Market

2009 ◽  
pp. 82-89
Author(s):  
A. Leonidov
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Correlation Functions ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Special Model ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
New Information

The article provides a new method for testing the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. A special model of stock market is built to estimate correlation functions. The main result is that the dynamics of share prices is close to the random walk but could be better described by a more sophisticated law of distribution. The market processes new information with a certain lag but its reaction is fast enough. Share prices reflect exogenous shocks much quicker than endogenous ones.

scholarly journals The Predictability and profitability of Trading Range Break-out Trading Rules: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-215
Author(s):  
Syed Arshad Ali Shah ◽  
Dr.Anwarul Mujahid Shah ◽  
Dr.Saiful Mujahid shah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Technical Trading ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Academic Literature

The efficient market hypothesis has been one of themost extensively researched topics in the academic literature for decades. An implication ofweak form of efficiency is that the technical trading rules will not produce abnormal returns. The purpose of this research is to analyze findings of application of trading range breakout test on daily closing share prices of 100 companies listed on a Pakistan Stock Exchange over ten years from 2006 to 2015,thus examining its efficiency at the weak form. The results show strong support for trading range break-out rules having both predictability and profitability for PSX. It refers that the returns from these rules are not same as investors earn from a naïve buy and hold strategy. The uses of the trading range break-out rules produce abnormal returns to investors and hence nullify the weak form of efficiency on PSX.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

Investor sentiment antecedents

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Specific Factors

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.

Bombay Stock Exchange of India

2017 ◽  
pp. 181-212
Author(s):  
Sachin Kamley ◽  
Shailesh Jaloree ◽  
R. S. Thakur
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Combination Of Methods ◽  
Prediction Techniques ◽  
A Company ◽  
Financial Issues

Stock market nature is considered to be dynamic and susceptible to quick changes because it depends on various factors like share price, fundamental variables like P/E ratio, dividend yield etc. election results, rumors etc. Now a day's prediction is an important process which determines the future worth of a company. The successful prediction brings motivation and awareness in stock community as well as economic growth of the country. In past various theories and methods like Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Random Walk Theory, fundamental and technical analyses have been proposed. These methods or combination of methods have not got as much success even yet because these methods are very complex and time consuming and performed well on short data. These days stock market users mostly rely on intelligent trading system which would be help them to predict share prices based on various situations and conditions. Data mining is a broad area and also supports various business intelligence techniques. It has mastery to raise various financial issues like buying/selling security, bond analysis, contract analyses etc. in this study various prediction techniques like linear regression, multiple regression, association rule mining, clustering, neural network have been proposed and their significant performances will be compared by Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) data.

Stock prices' long memory in China and the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengxun Tan ◽  
Yao Fu ◽  
Hong Cheng ◽  
Juan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThis study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible causes of the differences in long memory between these two stock markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ various methods to estimate the memory parameters, including the modified R/S, averaged periodogram, Lagrange multiplier, local Whittle and exact local Whittle estimations.FindingsChina's two stock markets exhibit long memory, whereas the two US markets do not. Furthermore, long memory is robust in Chinese markets even when we test break-adjusted data. The Chinese stock market does not meet the efficient market hypothesis (EMHs), including the efficiency of information disclosure, regulations and supervision, investors' behavior, and trading mechanisms. Therefore, its stock prices' sluggish response to information leads to momentum effects and long memory.Originality/valueThe authors elaborately illustrate how long memory develops by analyzing not only stock market indices but also typical individual stocks in both the emerging China and the developed US, which diversifies the EMH with wider international stylized facts and findings when compared with previous literature. A couple of tests conducted to analyze structural break effects and spurious long memory demonstrate the reliability of the results. The authors’ findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers worldwide.

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