Are share prices of Gulf corporate council banks predictable? A time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-28
Author(s):  
Hesham I. Almujamed
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Accounting Disclosure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Future Evaluation

Purpose This research aimed to evaluate the predictability of moving-average strategies and examined the validity of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for securities of banks listed in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach Several statistical analyses and eight moving-average rules were employed where buy and sell signals were produced by comparing a security price’s short- and long-term moving averages. The study covered the daily closing share prices of 40 GCC-listed banks over the 18-year period ending 31 December 2017. Findings The results suggest that securities of banks in the GCC were not weak-form efficient because share prices were predictable. Investors who traded using moving-average strategies could generate higher profits. Analysis of variance found that securities of Kuwaiti banks were the most efficiently priced. Practical implications The findings supported the idea that profitability depended on the moving-average rules and country chosen. Transaction costs did not affect the returns obtained using different trading rules. Originality/value This work facilitates future evaluation of accounting disclosure environments as well as the market efficiency and the performance of securities in the GCC countries. The performance of moving average rules among representative countries that share similar characteristics was analyzed. Different market participants, including investors, analysts and regulators, can benefit from this study for decision-making. These results suggest that new regulations might be drafted that would improve the timeliness of accounting information and the banks’ level of efficiency.

The profitability of trading strategies from sharia-compliant and conventional banks in the GCC: a comparative study

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hesham I. AlMujamed
Keyword(s):  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Accounting Disclosure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Filter Rules

Purpose The purpose of this research was to examine the effectiveness of filter rules and investigate the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on sample shares of shariah-compliant vs. conventional banks listed on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market. Design/methodology/approach Nine trading filter strategies with different statistical analyses were used as defined in the literature (Fifield et al., 2005; Almujamed et al., 2018). Daily closing equity prices of a sample of twenty shariah-compliant banks and twenty conventional banks were recorded over the 18-year period ending 31 December 2017. Findings Shares of shariah-compliant banks in the GCC were not weak-form efficient since trading based on past information was predictable, profitable and outperformed the corresponding naïve buy-and-hold trading strategy. Shares of conventional GCC banks underperformed Research limitations/implications This paper’s findings should be useful for central banks and capital market authorities in GCC countries for evaluation when considering new regulations or process changes. Limitations include small sample numbers and need for more recent evaluations of accounting disclosure levels. A wider range of data, statistical analyses and other trading strategies is needed. Potential investors (Muslim and non-Muslim), shariah supervisory boards, and preparers of financial statements can benefit from this study. Practical implications The results suggest that selection of trading strategy affects the success of the rule and that mid-sized filters are the best. Originality/value This is an innovative study comparing performance of shariah-compliant and conventional banks under different filter rules.

Filter rule performance in an emerging market: evidence from Qatari listed companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hesham I. Almujamed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
High Price ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Filter Rules

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of nine filter rules and test the validity of the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE). Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the filter rule strategy employed by Fifield et al. (2005), which suggests that a buy signal occurs when a share’s price increases by X percent from the previous price. This strategy recommends that the share is held until its price declines by X percent from the subsequent high price. Any price changes below X percent are ignored. Additionally, using the theory of weak-form efficiency, this paper suggests that, if a stock market is efficient, an investor cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. To this end, the daily closing share prices of 44 companies listed on QSE are explored for 2004–2017. Findings The findings propose that QSE is not weak-form efficient because security prices are predictable. As such, investors who followed filter strategies based on past price information could have made profit. Sectoral analysis findings further suggest that firms in the consumer goods and services, industrial and insurance sectors are most efficiently priced amongst the QSE-traded companies. Practical implications The evidence may be plausibly helpful as supporting market participants and academics that suggest that selecting filter strategy is extremely important for determining the overall profitability of the trading strategy. Originality/value To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study on Qatar that examines the performance of filter rules relative to a passive investor in the context of trading rules with individual share prices for a new stock market. Furthermore, this study adds to the literature through the empirical finding that technical analysts using filter strategies could generate excess returns relative to the buy-and-hold strategy on new emerging stock markets. This study also suggests the levels of transparency and accounting disclosure are limited, which may help Qatari policy makers understand the QSE context. Therefore, it might lead them to introduce regulatory changes to improve the QSE’s efficiency level.

Management of competition among sellers and its performance implications for business-to-business electronic platforms

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoling Li ◽  
Xingyao Ren ◽  
Xu Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Research ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Marketing Tactics ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Term Performance

Purpose – This paper aimed to analyze the short- and long-term effects of the breadth and depth of seller competition on the performance of platform companies, and investigated the underlying mechanisms of customers’ two-sided marketing tactics on the structure of the competition between sellers. Design/methodology/approach – A longitudinal research design was adopted by gathering daily market objective data on e-commerce platforms for 250 days, and the dynamic evolution effects was analyzed by using a vector autoregression model which compared the differences between the short- and long-term effectiveness of different customer relationship management (CRM) strategies. Findings – The breadth of competition amongst sellers improves the performance of platforms, whilst the depth of competition among sellers has a positive effect on the short-term performance. However, it has a negative effect on the long-term performance of their platforms. In both the short and long terms, advertising tactics that attract new buyers contribute more to increases in the breadth of seller competition than those that attract existing buyers do. Subsidies for new sellers decrease the depth of seller competition more than those for old sellers. Research limitations/implications – Further research could be undertaken to investigate the validity of marketing tactics other than advertising tactics, and thus expand the time windows of the available data. Practical implications – It is imperative for platform companies to implement effective control over seller competition to balance the interests of the sellers and of themselves. Originality/value – The dyadic paradigm of CRM research has been extended by considering the perspective of the electronic platform company, how the tactics of exploitation and exploration of two-sided customers impact upon seller competitive structures have been delved into and why new customers have a unique value to platform companies has been identified.

The value relevance of capital expenditures and the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsoo Kim ◽  
Brandon byunghwan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Business Conditions

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the relationship between corporate capital investments and business cycles. Specifically, a major purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there are inherent differences in corporate investment patterns and whether the stock market exhibits different reactions to the value relevance of capital expenditures across different business conditions. Design/methodology/approach The authors use pooled ordinary least square regressions with archival stock price data and financial data from CRSP and Compustat. The authors regress buy and hold returns on the main test variables and control variables that are identified to be related to the investment literature. Findings This paper provides empirical evidence that US firms’ capital expenditures are more value relevant to capital market participants during expansionary business cycles and, conversely, less value relevant during contractionary business cycles. This evidence validates previous literature that has found the information content of capital expenditures to be uncertain and cyclical in nature. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this paper, as with other work dealing with stock returns and archived financial data, is that the authors try to match stock returns with contemporaneous financial data in an association study context. The precise mapping in this methodology is always challenging and has been questioned in the literature. Practical implications This paper has various implications for capital market participants. Capital expenditures are good news for investors, but they will make a better investment when firms make capital investments during an expansionary period. Creditors deciding whether to extend credit to firms would benefit from more accurate information on the viability of long-term investment. The results also suggest to creditors that an excessive number of loans during the contractionary period may be suboptimal because firms’ returns on capital investment are smaller in that period than in the expansionary period. Social implications Given the valuation of implications of long-term capital investments across different business conditions, this paper sheds light on asset allocations for mutual funds, institutional investors who are entrusted with investors’ investments including retirement funds. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified need to study how capital investments are valued differently across different business conditions.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis for socially responsible and Shariah indexes in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Khan ◽  
Muhammad Yar Khan ◽  
Abdul Qayyum Khan ◽  
Majid Jamal Khan ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Purpose By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI). Design/methodology/approach This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018. Findings The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model. Research limitations/implications This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world. Originality/value This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

Help us to help you

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (10) ◽  
pp. 29-30
Keyword(s):  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Performance Gains ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings Hotels in the Asia-Pacific region have yet to fully utilize social media to promote their CSR initiatives. This means there is huge potential for improved stakeholder engagement, leading to short- and long-term performance gains. Originality The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

scholarly journals Environmental and social sustainability priorities

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annachiara Longoni ◽  
Raffaella Cagliano
Keyword(s):  
Business Strategy ◽  
Social Sustainability ◽  
Operations Strategy ◽  
Manufacturing Strategy ◽  
Competitive Priorities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Term Performance

Purpose – Environmental and social sustainability are becoming key competitive priorities for companies, but the way in which they are integrated in operations strategies remains an open issue. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether established operations strategy configuration models (i.e. price-oriented, market-oriented and capability-oriented models) are modified to include environmental and social priorities and whether different operations strategy configuration models are equally successful in the short and long term. Design/methodology/approach – Analyses were performed using data from the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (2009), including companies in the assembly industry in 21 different countries. According to previous studies, cluster analysis of competitive priorities and ANOVA analysis of the business strategy and short- and long-term performance were performed. Findings – The results show that traditional operations strategy configuration models are slightly modified. Market-oriented and capability-oriented operations strategies are complemented by environmental and social sustainability priorities. These operations strategies are adopted by companies with a differentiation and innovation business strategy. Moreover, capability-oriented companies, which are the most committed to environmental and social sustainability, perform better in both the short and long term. Practical implications – This research shows to companies that traditional operations strategies focusing on specific competitive priorities (e.g. low price) are being replaced by more holistic strategies that include sustainability priorities. However, environmental and social priorities contribute to competitive advantage when complementing capability-oriented operations strategies. Originality/value – This paper extends operations strategy configuration models highlighting how environmental and social sustainability priorities can be deployed together with traditional competitive operations priorities.

The use of strong and weak form sustainability to assist in rate development for the valuation of exhaustible resources (part I)

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 256-277
Author(s):  
T.V. Grissom ◽  
M. McCord ◽  
D. McIlhatton ◽  
M. Haran
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Exhaustible Resources ◽  
Utility Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Resources ◽  
Discounted Utility ◽  
Rate Development

Purpose – The purpose of this paper, which is the first of a two-part series, is to build upon the established research on environmental economics and sustainability theory developed by Ramsey (1928), Weitzman (2007) and Gollier (2010). The Ramsey-Weitzman-Gollier model, with the contribution of Howarth (2009) and Nordhaus (2007a, b), focuses on discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets, linking discounted utility analysis embedded in the CCAPM model of Lucas (1978) to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. This paper further investigates these issues to the rates structure appropriate for exhaustible resources with a particular emphasis on urban land, based upon the differentiation of strong and weak form sustainability concepts constrained by the objectives of the sustainable criterion of Daly and Cobb (1994). Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates the concepts of discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets and discounted utility analysis to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. It develops new theoretical insight in order to allow the theoretical formulation of discount and capitalization rates that can be empirically applied and tested. Findings – The paper provides theoretical support for a new approach concerned with the development of capitalization and discount rates in the valuation of non-renewable resources. A key concern of valuing non-renewable or limited resource endowments (in space or time) is the problem of irreversible investment or irrevocable decision implementation as suggested by Arrow-Fisher (1974), Krautkraemer (1985) and Daly and Cobb (1994). It investigates the challenge with developing capitalization rates and valuation of depleting resources temporally, within the constraints of sustainability. To achieve this, an optimal control discounting procedure subject to a sustainable objective statement is employed – in this context it suggests that sustainability should be treated as an alternative to traditional growth and the maximization of near-term returns. Originality/value – This paper extends the construct of developing rates structures appropriate for the valuation of exhaustible resources. It places a conceptual emphasis on urban land development. The measures developed and the insights gained may serve as a basis for future research on the optimal levels of sustainable development appropriate for different nations.

scholarly journals Substitute or complement? The use of trade credit as a financing source among SMEs

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darush Yazdanfar ◽  
Peter Öhman
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Credit ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
System Models ◽  
Accounts Payable ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Retained Earnings

Purpose This study aims to investigate trade credit as a financing source among small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly the influence of short-term debt, long-term debt and profitability on the use of such credit. Design/methodology/approach Ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed-effects and generalized method of moments (GMM) system models were used to analyze a large cross-sectional panel data set of 15,897 Swedish SMEs in five industry sectors for the 2009-2012 period. Findings The study provides empirical evidence that long-term debt and profitability each significantly and negatively influence trade credit (i.e. accounts payable) and that short-term debt positively influences trade credit. Notably, while trade credit seems to complement other short-term debt, it replaces long-term debt. Moreover, firm size in terms of sales is positively related and firm age is negatively related to accounts payable. Industry affiliation is another significant explanatory variable. Practical implications The results provide debt holders, potential investors, policymakers and academic researchers with insights into the relationship between trade credit demand, on the one hand, and external financing (i.e. short- and long-term debt) and internal retained earnings (i.e. profit), on the other. From a manager’s perspective, the findings may be important for decision-making regarding trade credit use. Originality/value When investigating trade credit determinants, the literature has seldom distinguished between short- and long-term debt and considered that they may influence the use of trade credit in different ways. The present study adds to the literature by using OLS, fixed-effects and GMM system models to analyze a large cross-sectoral sample in a high-tax country where both bank loans and trade credit are considered important financing instruments.

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