Degradation modelling and life expectancy using Markov chain model for carriageway

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1268-1288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kong Fah Tee ◽  
Ejiroghene Ekpiwhre ◽  
Zhang Yi
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Condition Assessment ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pairwise Correlation

PurposeAutomated condition surveys have been recently introduced for condition assessment of highway infrastructures worldwide. Accurate predictions of the current state, median life (ML) and future state of highway infrastructures are crucial for developing appropriate inspection and maintenance strategies for newly created as well as existing aging highway infrastructures. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes Markov Chain based deterioration modelling using a linear transition probability (LTP) matrix method and a median life expectancy (MLE) algorithm. The proposed method is applied and evaluated using condition improvement between the two successive inspections from the Surface Condition Assessment of National Network of Roads survey of the UK Pavement Management System.FindingsThe proposed LTP matrix model utilises better insight than the generic or decoupling linear approach used in estimating transition probabilities formulated in the past. The simulated LTP predicted conditions are portrayed in a deterioration profile and a pairwise correlation. The MLs are computed statistically with a cumulative distribution function plot.Originality/valueThe paper concludes that MLE is ideal for projecting half asset life, and the LTP matrix approach presents a feasible approach for new maintenance regime when more certain deterioration data become available.

scholarly journals Will this search end up with booking? Modeling airline booking conversion of anonymous visitors

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-250
Author(s):  
Misuk Lee
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Distribution Channel ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Online Search ◽  
Clickstream Data ◽  
Content Type

Purpose Over the past two decades, online booking has become a predominant distribution channel of tourism products. As online sales have become more important, understanding booking conversion behavior remains a critical topic in the tourism industry. The purpose of this study is to model airline search and booking activities of anonymous visitors. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes a stochastic approach to explicitly model dynamics of airline customers’ search, revisit and booking activities. A Markov chain model simultaneously captures transition probabilities and the timing of search, revisit and booking decisions. The suggested model is demonstrated on clickstream data from an airline booking website. Findings Empirical results show that low prices (captured as discount rates) lead to not only booking propensities but also overall stickiness to a website, increasing search and revisit probabilities. From the decision timing of search and revisit activities, the author observes customers’ learning effect on browsing time and heterogeneous intentions of website visits. Originality/value This study presents both theoretical and managerial implications of online search and booking behavior for airline and tourism marketing. The dynamic Markov chain model provides a systematic framework to predict online search, revisit and booking conversion and the time of the online activities.

Object Trajectory Information for Robotic Service in Intelligent Space

2014 ◽  
Vol 490-491 ◽  
pp. 1172-1176
Author(s):  
Weerachai Skulkittiyut ◽  
Toru Yamaguchi ◽  
Makoto Mizukawa
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Object Knowledge ◽  
Individual Object ◽  
Intelligent Space

Implementation of robotic service is needed extremely enormous of information including environment, place, user and object knowledge. It is extremely difficult for a robot to do tasks ordered by a human without having some basic knowledge or information. This paper proposes a method to create object knowledge focusing on an object and objects place relationship for the robotic service namely tidy-up service, in which a robot is asked to take objects such as books, cups, dishes on a table to appropriate places automatically. In details, as the first phase, we conduct a questionnaire to collect the trajectories in term of places of individual object from the participants. Based on the collected object trajectory information, we are able to build Markov chain model of the object which the states are possible places and transition probabilities are the probability that the object moved from one place to other places. In final, we are able to use the transition probability including the Markov chain model to predict and provide the next appropriate place. The result showed that the proposed approach is efficient in creating object trajectory as knowledge, hence, helping the robots to and to provide intuitive service.

scholarly journals Markov Chain-Based Acute Effect Estimation of Air Pollution on Elder Asthma Hospitalization

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Luo ◽  
Fengyi Zhang ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Lin Sun ◽  
Chunyang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
Asthma Patient ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Asthma Hospitalization

Background. Asthma caused substantial economic and health care burden and is susceptible to air pollution. Particularly, when it comes to elder asthma patient (older than 65), the phenomenon is more significant. The aim of this study is to investigate the Markov-based acute effects of air pollution on elder asthma hospitalizations, in forms of transition probabilities. Methods. A retrospective, population-based study design was used to assess temporal patterns in hospitalizations for asthma in a region of Sichuan province, China. Approximately 12 million residents were covered during this period. Relative risk analysis and Markov chain model were employed on daily hospitalization state estimation. Results. Among PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2, only SO2 was significant. When air pollution is severe, the transition probability from a low-admission state (previous day) to high-admission state (next day) is 35.46%, while it is 20.08% when air pollution is mild. In particular, for female-cold subgroup, the counterparts are 30.06% and 0.01%, respectively. Conclusions. SO2 was a significant risk factor for elder asthma hospitalization. When air pollution worsened, the transition probabilities from each state to high admission states increase dramatically. This phenomenon appeared more evidently, especially in female-cold subgroup (which is in cold season for female admissions). Based on our work, admission amount forecast, asthma intervention, and corresponding healthcare allocation can be done.

scholarly journals The Markov Process as a Model of Migration Based on the Example of the Movement of Banknotes

2021 ◽  
Vol 2/2021 (35) ◽  
pp. 76-92
Author(s):  
Arkadiusz Manikowski ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
National Bank ◽  
One Step ◽  
Step Transition

This paper presents a way of using the Markov chain model for the analysis of migration based on the example of banknote migration between regions in Poland. We have presented the application of the methodology for estimating one-step transition probabilities for the Markov chain based on macro-data gathered during the project conducted in the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in the period of December 2015–2018. We have shown the usefulness of state-aggregated Markov chain not only as a model of banknote migration but as migration in general. The banknotes are considered here as goods, so their migration is strictly related to, inter alia, the movement of people (commuting to work, business trips, etc.).Thus, the gravity-like properties of cash migration pointed to the gravity model as one of the most pervasive empirical models in regional science. Transition probability of the Markov chain expressing the attractive force between regions allows for estimating the gravity model for the identification of relevant reasons of note and, consequently, people migration.

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

scholarly journals Calibration of Transition Intensities for a Multistate Model: Application to Long-Term Care

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Manuel L. Esquível ◽  
Gracinda R. Guerreiro ◽  
Matilde C. Oliveira ◽  
Pedro Corte Real
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Chain Process ◽  
Term Care ◽  
National Network

We consider a non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chain model for Long-Term Care with five states: the autonomous state, three dependent states of light, moderate and severe dependence levels and the death state. For a general approach, we allow for non null intensities for all the returns from higher dependence levels to all lesser dependencies in the multi-state model. Using data from the 2015 Portuguese National Network of Continuous Care database, as the main research contribution of this paper, we propose a method to calibrate transition intensities with the one step transition probabilities estimated from data. This allows us to use non-homogeneous continuous time Markov chains for modeling Long-Term Care. We solve numerically the Kolmogorov forward differential equations in order to obtain continuous time transition probabilities. We assess the quality of the calibration using the Portuguese life expectancies. Based on reasonable monthly costs for each dependence state we compute, by Monte Carlo simulation, trajectories of the Markov chain process and derive relevant information for model validation and premium calculation.

Risk assessment for financial accounting: modeling probability of default

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Filusch
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
Financial Accounting ◽  
Homogeneous Markov Chain ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structures

Purpose This paper aims to introduce and tests models for point-in-time probability of default (PD) term structures as required by international accounting standards. Corresponding accounting standards prescribe that expected credit losses (ECLs) be recognized for the impairment of financial instruments, for which the probability of default strongly embodies the included default risk. This paper fills the research gap resulting from a lack of models that expand upon existing risk management techniques, link PD term structures of different risk classes and are compliant with accounting standards, e.g. offering the flexibility for business cycle-related variations. Design/methodology/approach The author modifies the non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain model (NHCTMCM) by Bluhm and Overbeck (2007a, 2007b) and introduces the generalized through-the-cycle model (GTTCM), which generalizes the homogeneous Markov chain approach to a point-in-time model. As part of the overall ECL estimation, an empirical study using Standard and Poor’s (S&P) transition data compares the performance of these models using the mean squared error. Findings The models can reflect observed PD term structures associated with different time periods. The modified NHCTMCM performs best at the expense of higher complexity and only its cumulative PD term structures can be transferred to valid ECL-relevant unconditional PD term structures. For direct calibration to these unconditional PD term structures, the GTTCM is only slightly worse. Moreover, it requires only half of the number of parameters that its competitor does. Both models are useful additions to the implementation of accounting regulations. Research limitations/implications The tests are only carried out for 15-year samples within a 35-year span of available S&P transition data. Furthermore, a point-in-time forecast of the PD term structure requires a link to the business cycle, which seems difficult to find, but is in principle necessary corresponding to the accounting requirements. Practical implications Research findings are useful for practitioners, who apply and develop the ECL models of financial accounting. Originality/value The innovative models expand upon the existing methodologies for assessing financial risks, motivated by the practical requirements of new financial accounting standards.

Multiple repair scenario of life cycle cost of RCC girder bridge using Markov chain model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Md. Shafiqul Islam ◽  
Shayla Sharmin ◽  
Jebunnesa Islam
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Chloride Concentration ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Girder Bridge ◽  
Inspection Data

At present, many road authorities in the world face challenges in condition monitoring diagnosis of distress and forecasting deterioration, strengthening and convalescence of aging bridge structures. The accurate prediction of the future condition is crucial for optimizing the maintenance activities. It is very tough to predict the actual performance scenario or actual in–situ structures without carrying out inspection. Limited availability of detailed inspection data is considered as one of the major drawbacks in developing deterioration models. In State Based Markov deterioration (SNMD) modelling, the main job is to estimate transition probability matrixes (TPMs). In this paper, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate TPMs. In Markov Chain Model, future conditions depend on only present bridge inspection data. Multiple repair options are adopted in order to optimize life cycle cost. Repairs are needed when the critical chloride concentration exceeds 0.2. Three distinct types of cost corresponding to each repair option is considered. The objective of this paper is to minimize the life cycle cost considering appropriate repair timings of mixed repair methods. Variation of life cycle cost of five different concretes (stronger to weaker) using three different repair option is shown in this paper. For specific normalized condition of concrete’s failure probability (0.3) and specific type of concrete, variation of life cycle cost using multiple repair options is also shown in this paper.

scholarly journals Insight into earthquake sequencing: analysis and interpretation of time-series constructed from the directed graph of the Markov chain model

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 399-424
Author(s):  
M. S. Cavers ◽  
K. Vasudevan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Directed Graph ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Fano Factor ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Allan Factor

Abstract. Directed graph representation of a Markov chain model to study global earthquake sequencing leads to a time-series of state-to-state transition probabilities that includes the spatio-temporally linked recurrent events in the record-breaking sense. A state refers to a configuration comprised of zones with either the occurrence or non-occurrence of an earthquake in each zone in a pre-determined time interval. Since the time-series is derived from non-linear and non-stationary earthquake sequencing, we use known analysis methods to glean new information. We apply decomposition procedures such as ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to study the state-to-state fluctuations in each of the intrinsic mode functions. We subject the intrinsic mode functions, the orthogonal basis set derived from the time-series using the EEMD, to a detailed analysis to draw information-content of the time-series. Also, we investigate the influence of random-noise on the data-driven state-to-state transition probabilities. We consider a second aspect of earthquake sequencing that is closely tied to its time-correlative behavior. Here, we extend the Fano factor and Allan factor analysis to the time-series of state-to state transition frequencies of a Markov chain. Our results support not only the usefulness the intrinsic mode functions in understanding the time-series but also the presence of power-law behaviour exemplified by the Fano factor and the Allan factor.

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