A Study on the Market Price of Weather Risk in Pricing Weather Derivatives

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-66
Author(s):  
Kwang-Il Bae ◽  
Jin Hee Choung
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Option Price ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Weather Derivatives ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Weather Risk ◽  
Option Pricing Model ◽  
Weather Changes

The weather largely affects economic activity, and thus, companies vulnerable to weather risk need to plan ahead to cope with unexpected weather changes, just as they do for changes in interest rates, oil prices, or foreign exchange rates to stabilize their earning stream. Weather derivatives can be a useful tool for weather risk management. This paper focuses on pricing one of the most popular weather derivatives -HDD/CDD options- and estimating the market price of weather risk (MPR). Historical data are used to construct the stochastic process of temperature, while the current market prices of Chicago and New York HDD futures options are used to extract the implied MPR. The Monte-Carlo Simulation Method is proposed to estimate the price of weather derivatives numerically. In addition, the approximate closed form formula for the options is provided modifying the Alaton, Djehiche, and Stillberg (2002) model. Finally, option price sensitivity to changes in MPR is analyzed to show the important role of the MPR in the weather option pricing model.

scholarly journals Modelling Macroeconomic Determinants Of Stock Market Prices: Evidence From Namibia

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Hinaunye Eita
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Econometric Methodology ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants of stock market prices in Namibia. The investigation was conducted using a VECM econometric methodology and revealed that Namibian stock market prices are chiefly determined by economic activity, interest rates, inflation, money supply and exchange rates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An increase in economic activity and the money supply increases stock market prices, while increases in inflation and interest rates decrease stock prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The results suggest that equities are not a hedge against inflation in Namibia, and contractionary monetary policy generally depresses stock prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Increasing economic activity promotes stock market price development.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 1065-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie Cao ◽  
Jason Wei
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Weather Derivatives ◽  
Weather Risk

Relationship between Coffee Prices in Spot and Futures Markets-An Empirical Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-188
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Highly Correlated

The present study explored the relationship between spot and futures coffee prices. The Correlation and Regression analysis were carried out based on monthly observations of International Coffee Organization (ICO) indicator prices of the four groups (Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas) representing Spot markets and the averages of 2nd and 3rd positions of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) New York for Arabica and ICE Europe for Robusta representing the Futures market for the period 1990 to 2019. The study also used the monthly average prices paid to coffee growers in India from 1990 to 2019. The estimated correlation coefficients indicated both the Futures prices and Spot prices of coffee are highly correlated. Further, estimated regression coefficients revealed a very strong relationship between Futures prices and Spot prices for all four ICO group indicator prices. Hence, the ICE New York (Arabica) and ICE Europe (Robusta) coffee futures prices are very closely related to Spot prices. The estimated regression coefficients between Futures prices and the price paid to coffee growers in India confirmed the positive relationship, but the dispersion of more prices over the trend line indicates a lesser degree of correlation between the price paid to growers at India and Futures market prices during the study period.

scholarly journals A Methodical Approach to Design and Valuation of Weather Derivatives in Agriculture

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jindrich Spicka ◽  
Jiri Hnilica
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Option Price ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Weather Derivatives ◽  
Methodical Approach

The paper deals with weather derivatives as the potentially effective risk management tool for agricultural enterprises seeking to mitigate their income exposure to variations in weather conditions. Design and valuation of the weather derivatives is an interdisciplinary approach covering agrometeorology, statistics, mathematical modeling, and financial and risk management. This paper first offers an overview of data sources and then methods of design and valuation of weather derivatives at the regional level. The accompanied case study focuses on cultivation of cereals (wheat and barley) in the Czech Republic. However, its generalizability is straightforward. The analysis of key growing phases of cereals is based on regression analysis using weather indices as the independent variables and crop yields as dependent variables. With the bootstrap tool, the burn analysis is considered as useful tool for estimating uncertainty about the payoff, option price, and statistics of probability distribution of revenues. The results show that the spatial and production basis risks reduce the efficiency of the weather derivatives. Finally, the potential for expansion of weather derivatives remains in the low income countries of Africa and Asia with systemic weather risk.

UJI TINGKAT KESESUAIAN NILAI JUAL OBJEK PAJAK DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN APLIKASI ASSESSMENT RATIO

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-53
Author(s):  
Swasito Adhipradana Prabu
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Big Cities ◽  
Better Than

The decentralization of PBB-P2 in Indonesia is expected to produce a better PBB-P2 administration system. One indicator of a better PBB-P2 administration system is a fair collection of PBB-P2 based on tax base (NJOP) valuation close to market prices. This study examines whether NJOP, as the basis for the imposition of PBB-P2, is in accordance with the market price using the assessment ratio. This study found that the current level of accuracy of the NJOP has not met the standard agreed upon by the IAAO. In addition, this study also found that the NJOP accuracy rate in big cities was slightly better than the NJOP accuracy rate in other cities. In addition, this study also found that there was no positive correlation between NJOP updating activities through SPOP filling and NJOP accuracy. Desentralisasi PBB-P2 di Indonesia diharapkan menghasilkan sistem penatausahaan PBB-P2 yang lebih baik. Salah satu indikator dari sistem penatausahaan PBB-P2 yang lebih baik adalah pemungutan PBB-P2 yang adil dengan dasar pengenaan pajak (NJOP) yang mendekati harga pasar. Studi ini meneliti apakah NJOP sebagai dasar pengenaan PBB-P2 sudah sesuai dengan harga pasar menggunakan assessment ratio. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa tingkat akurasi NJOP saat ini belum memenuhi standar yang disepakati oleh IAAO. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa tingkat akurasi NJOP di kota besar, sedikit lebih baik dibanding tingkaat akurasi NJOP di kota-kota lainnya. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa tidak ada korelasi positif antara kegiatan pemutakhiran NJOP melalui pengisian SPOP dengan tingkat akurasi NJOP.

Problems of Russia’s Integration into the Global Financial System

2015 ◽  
pp. 82-90
Author(s):  
A. Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Global Financial System

The author examines problems of Russia’s integration into the global financial system since early 1990s. During this short period of time Russia has turned from a net debtor into a net creditor. This is evidenced by its current net international investment position, as well as by active participation in the formation of credit resources of the key international financial institutions, particularly IMF. Still, the net investment income of Russia is negative. Such a disadvantage is explained by the difference in interest rates between payments of Russia on its external obligations and receipts as income from investments in foreign assets, mainly low-income bonds of developed countries, which form Russian international reserves. For three centuries the United Kingdom and the United States have been playing key role in the development of the global financial system. Today London and New York still operate nearly two thirds of the volume of global flows of capital in the international financial markets. Thus, as one of major economies in terms of GDP and as a resource-richest country of the world, Russia, as author argues, can rightfully claim for a more adequate share of income from the global financial intermediation. Obstacles include the lack of development of the domestic financial market and insufficient international demand for financial instruments denominated in Rubles. Russian Ruble remains a purely internal currency which practically is not used in the international trading and financial operations. At this stage, Russia’s inability to influence the basic conditions of refinancing on international capital markets, as well as the recent Western sanctions make impossible the full-scale participation of Russia in the processes of financial globalization. The author concludes that alternative way of Russia’s entry into the global financial system lays in playing the key role in the creation of the regional financial market of the Eurasian Economic Space.

scholarly journals Fractional differencing in stock market price and online presence of global tourist corporations

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (48) ◽  
pp. 194-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Flores-Muñoz ◽  
Alberto Javier Báez-García ◽  
Josué Gutiérrez-Barroso
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Search Results ◽  
Online Presence ◽  
Fractional Differencing

Purpose This work aims to explore the behavior of stock market prices according to the autoregressive fractional differencing integrated moving average model. This behavior will be compared with a measure of online presence, search engine results as measured by Google Trends. Design/methodology/approach The study sample is comprised by the companies listed at the STOXX® Global 3000 Travel and Leisure. Google Finance and Yahoo Finance, along with Google Trends, were used, respectively, to obtain the data of stock prices and search results, for a period of five years (October 2012 to October 2017). To guarantee certain comparability between the two data sets, weekly observations were collected, with a total figure of 118 firms, two time series each (price and search results), around 61,000 observations. Findings Relationships between the two data sets are explored, with theoretical implications for the fields of economics, finance and management. Tourist corporations were analyzed owing to their growing economic impact. The estimations are initially consistent with long memory; so, they suggest that both stock market prices and online search trends deserve further exploration for modeling and forecasting. Significant differences owing to country and sector effects are also shown. Originality/value This research contributes in two different ways: it demonstrate the potential of a new tool for the analysis of relevant time series to monitor the behavior of firms and markets, and it suggests several theoretical pathways for further research in the specific topics of asymmetry of information and corporate transparency, proposing pertinent bridges between the two fields.

scholarly journals Implied Market Price of Weather Risk

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang K. HHrdle ◽  
Brenda LLpez Cabrera
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Weather Risk
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