Risk analysis of construction of administration projects using Bayesian networks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Osama ◽  
Aly Sherif ◽  
Mohamed Badawy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Life

Purpose This paper aims to enlighten the importance of the risk management process which is considered as a major procedure to effectively handle the potential inherent risks in the construction industry. However, most traditional risk analysis techniques are based on theories that deal with each risk factor as an independent, which does not take into consideration the causal relationships between risk factors. Design/methodology/approach This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using Bayesian belief networks (BBN). Through a review of the literature, 27 risk factors were identified and categorized as the most common risk factors in the construction industry. A structured questionnaire was performed to estimate the probability and severity of these risks. Through site visits and interviews with experts in the construction field, 200 valid questionnaires were collected. A risk analysis model was developed using BBNs, then the applicability of this model was verified using a case study in Egypt. Findings However, the outcome showed that critical risks that manipulate administrative construction projects in Egypt were corruption and bribery, contractor financial difficulties, force majeure, damage to the structure and defective material installation. Practical implications The proposed study presents the possibilities available to the project parties to obtain a better forecast of the project objectives, including the project duration, total project cost and the target quality by examining the causal relationships between project risks and project objectives. Originality/value This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using BBNs.

Contractual challenges for BIM-based construction projects: a systematic review

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 372-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Huzaimi Abd Jamil ◽  
Mohamad Syazli Fathi
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Facility Management ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Interaction Matrix ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Building Information ◽  
Project Life

Purpose Building information modeling (BIM) has been proven to enable outstanding results in construction processes by enhancing knowledge sharing with regard to a building or facility throughout its life cycle from the conceptual design to facility management. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent to which the use of BIM has impacted the legal and contractual implications of the existing construction contracts for aligning the three sets of relevant development domains: BIM functionality, contract procurement methods, and BIM legal and contractual issues to enhance the efficient use of valuable resources. Design/methodology/approach This exploratory study was undertaken by analyzing the literature using a novel approach involving a matrix that juxtaposes BIM functionalities for each project life cycle with contract procurement methods. As part of the study, 28 interactions of BIM legal and contractual issues have been identified, as representing positive and negative interactions. Findings The interaction matrix framework that juxtaposes BIM functionalities and procurement methods highlights the theoretical and practical relationships identified between the methods. It also simultaneously recognizes the constructive and destructive interactions between these development domains by means of critically identifying the possible interactions of the legal and contractual aspects of both the BIM project procurement and the practical aspects of BIM project delivery. Originality/value The present study contributes to the existing literature by extensively identifying the probable interactions of contractual issues within BIM functionality with contract procurement methods throughout the life cycle of a building construction project.

Identification of critical risk factors in public-private partnership project phases in developing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 334-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon Olusola Babatunde ◽  
Srinath Perera ◽  
Onaopepo Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Development Phase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Phases ◽  
Operation Phase ◽  
Project Life

Purpose Public‐private partnerships (PPPs) are being faced by risk threats, notwithstanding the fact that the PPP model has been structured in a way that the associated risks are shared by both the public and private sectors. Consequently, the sources of risk change over the PPP project phases. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify and assess the risk factors in PPP infrastructure project phases comprising development phase, construction phase, operation phase and project life cycle through an empirical approach. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted four different data-gathering approaches including literature review, desk review, brainstorming session and questionnaire survey. In order to capture a broad perception of stakeholders, the questionnaires were administered to three different stakeholder organizations to include public sector authorities (i.e. ministries, department and agencies), concessionaires and lenders/banks involved in different PPP infrastructure projects implementation in Nigeria. A total of 81 questionnaires were administered, out of which 63 were retrieved but after checking through the completed questionnaires, 60 questionnaires were found suitable for the analysis. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, mean score, Kruskal–Wallis test and the risk significance index in terms of severity and likelihood of occurrence conducted. Findings In total, 70 risk factors were identified with respect to PPP project phases and their relative importance was gauged. In addition, the analysis of total 70 risk factors in the development phase, construction phase, operation phase and project life cycle phase indicated that 51 risk factors are located in the yellow zone, which is considered as moderate and 19 risk factors are located in the red zone that are regarded as critical. Practical implications The identification of specific critical risk factors in each PPP project phase will provide a benchmark in developing risk management programs in developing countries. Originality/value These study findings would be useful for PPP stakeholders to focus their attention, priorities and leadership in managing these critical risk factors. Furthermore, the findings of this study are significant in providing an in-depth understanding of the current Nigeria’s PPP market environment, which is a true reflection of developing countries as a whole.

scholarly journals Assessment of risk-forming factors of construction production in conditions of uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 258 ◽  
pp. 09052
Author(s):  
Andrey Schreiber ◽  
Ivan Abramov ◽  
Zaid Al-Zaidi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Materials Used ◽  
Project Life ◽  
The Impact

Many changes have occurred in the construction industry over the past few years as a result of the development of technologies and specifications of the materials used and modern technologies, which led to an increase in the accuracy and speed of implementation of various stages of the project life cycle, and it became important to anticipate external and internal risks of the project and plan a response to these risks, since they have the effect of an unaccounted price increase and an excess of the contract period. From this perspective, risk assessment was a necessary tool to determine the risks to which the project was exposed in order to find the best way to deal with them. The aim of the study is to identify the most significant types of risk factors faced by the construction industry, which lead to exceeding the specified time for implementation and to large losses, which helps stakeholders in this area to predict potential obstacles and be able to quickly make appropriate decisions. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire survey was conducted to collect information from specialists in the construction industry, as well as references in this field to express an opinion on the intensity of the impact of each studied risk factor. Thereafter, Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the risk factors studied. The study found that Monte Carlo simulations, which depend on repeated scenarios hundreds or thousands of times, can provide an accurate estimate of the risks faced by investment and construction projects in conditions of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Reverse Logistics Performance Indicators for the Construction Sector: A Building Project Case

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 963
Author(s):  
Mochamad Agung Wibowo ◽  
Naniek Utami Handayani ◽  
Anita Mustikasari ◽  
Sherly Ayu Wardani ◽  
Benny Tjahjono
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Reverse Logistics ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Life ◽  
Building Project

While the performance evaluation of reverse logistics (RL) practices in the construction sector is crucial, it is seemingly limited compared to that in the manufacturing sector. As the project life cycle in the construction sector is typically long, effective coordination among the stakeholders is needed to integrate RL into each phase of the project life cycle. This paper proposes a new model of RL for the construction industry, incorporating the dimensions, elements, and, most importantly, indicators needed for the evaluation of RL performance. The model was initially derived from the extant literature. It was then refined through (1) focus group discussion, by which suggestions pertinent to the proposed model were collated from academics and practitioners, and (2) judgments by academics and practitioners to validate the model. The validated model includes 21 indicators to measure RL performance, spanned throughout the green initiation, green design, green material management, green construction, and green operation and maintenance phases. The paper offers a new method for how RL can be adopted in the construction industry by proposing an innovative model that will benefit stakeholders in the construction industry.

scholarly journals Process Information Modelling (PIM) Concept for On-site Construction Management: Hong Kong Case

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Pan ◽  
Bahriye Ilhan ◽  
Thomas Bock
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Information Modelling ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Life

When compared to the manufacturing industry, the advances of intelligent and seamless project management approaches lag behind in the construction industry. This is due to the complexity of the construction projects as well as various stakeholders who acquire specific interest of the project. For instance, public building construction has many sub-tasks and numerous systematised working processes such as planning, mobilisation, scheduling, procurement and controlling. The management of the processes of each phase of the project life cycle is of great importance in order to prevent project delay and cost overrun. A particular importance is required if construction robotics is involved since precise process and scheduling information as well as feedback are critical to ensure each task is completed accordingly. This paper proposes a holistic system approach, which focuses on the process-oriented management for on-site construction. To succeed, the Process Information Modelling (PIM) concept is introduced. The main goal of PIM is to integrate Building Information Modelling (BIM) for extensible solutions with a process-based database platform, which allows for smooth data transfer and supports continuous data sharing among all stakeholders. The overall aim is to develop a collaborative way of planning, designing, producing, assembling and managing the entire project life cycle strategy. Digital documentation, simulation and real-time data are produced progressively to facilitate decision-making. A case study applying the PIM concept for the façade painting task by a painting robot for an on-going consultancy project commissioned by the construction industry council (CIC) in Hong Kong is presented. This paper is the revised version of the paper that has been published in the proceedings of the Creative Construction Conference 2018 (Pan et al., 2018).

A stakeholder-based risk assessment and intervention framework for international construction projects

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Shangde Gao ◽  
Pinchao Liao ◽  
Tsenguun Ganbat ◽  
Junhua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
The Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Project Objectives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to construct a two-stage risk management framework for international construction projects based on the meta-network analysis (MNA) approach. A plethora of international construction studies seems to assume risks as independent and therefore, risk intervention strategies are usually critiqued as ineffective. Design/methodology/approach In the risk assessment stage, a multi-tiered risk network structure was developed with the project objectives, risk events, risk factors and stakeholders, and critical risk factors were selected based on a series of calculations. In the risk intervention stage, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed for stakeholders based on the results of the first stage. A highway construction project in Eastern Europe was selected as a case study. Findings The results showed that 17 risk factors in three categories – external, stakeholder-related and internal – are critical, and the project manager, construction management department, supplier and contract department are the most critical stakeholders that affect the entire project performance. Based on the critical risk factors and project stakeholders, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed. The risk assessment results of MNA were found to be more reliable and consistent with the project conditions than the risk matrix method; the risk intervention strategies of MNA can effectively address project objectives. Originality/value This study modeled risk priorities based on risk associations and put forward a new method for risk management, supplementing the body of knowledge of international construction. The results of this study are of critical importance in management practices.

Private partner's risk response in PPP low-cost housing projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surangkana Trangkanont ◽  
Chotchai Charoenngam
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Private Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Low Cost Housing ◽  
Project Life

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the salient risks borne by private firms and to investigate their effective risk response strategies in public-private partnership (PPP) low-cost housing (LCH) projects in Thailand. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs grounded theory and case study methodologies to extensively analyze ten private firms’ risks and their strategic risk mitigation. As a result, the matrix of imperative risks’ root causes and the area of the project life cycle most exposed to their impacts were proposed. This included the framework of the risk response strategy application. Findings – The private firm's risk mitigation strategies depended on the salient risks’ impact and the private firms’ predictability and controllability of the risk outcome. This included the private firm's participating objectives and core business, decision maker's risk attitude, risk perception, experience of risk, and risk assessment skill, and the project life cycle phase of risk occurrence. Practical implications – Under the same characteristics of the immature PPP market in developing countries, the contractors’ effective risk management framework can be used as a guideline to complement the contractors’ decision making on risk response strategy selection and resource allocation in the PPP project life cycle. Originality/value – Despite working under the familiar environment of construction risk and generous payment method in PPP-LCH projects, only few contractors were successful. The examination of risks borne and effectively responded by the private sector increases the likelihood of the project success.

PREQUALIFICATION METHOD STATEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROCUREMENT

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetta Bossi ◽  
Natale Massimo Minotti
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Procurement Strategies ◽  
Project Life

The current competitive environment within the construction sector is increasingly difficult and challenging, leading all the main players to increase their focus and efforts upon procurement strategies and policies. Therefore, procurement practice is important in order to effectively perform and close out the construction process and meet stakeholders' needs. Starting from a deep analysis of procurement processes framed within the project life cycle, the research proposed the prequalification phase as a selection strategy necessary to identify the contractor. In order to select the project delivery system most suitable to the customer and the project to be developed, an operating procedure has been proposed, allowing who deals with procurement better ruling the purchasing processes. In the proposed procedure, each activity is defined through a general overview, the execution process and its tools. The outputs of the study are also sample documents and model forms that can be easily utilized assisting the procurement phase. Thus, since the procurement process has assumed increasing importance in the strategic planning of the construction industry, the aim of the research is to provide a prequalification method necessary to select the most suitable contractor before the tender, in order to reduce any risks during the entire construction process.

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