Public debt management and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega ◽  
Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria ◽  
Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
Maturity Management ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil.Design/methodology/approachThe model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term.FindingsContrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt.Originality/valueDespite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies.

Monetary policy shock and industrial production: industry-level evidence from the US

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazneen Ahmad ◽  
Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of a monetary policy shock on the production of a sample of 312 industries in manufacturing, mining and utilities in the United States using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a FAVAR model that builds on Bernanke et al. (2005) and Boivin et al. (2009). The main assumption in this model is that the dynamics of a large set of macro variables are captured by some observed and unobserved common factors. The unobserved factors are extracted from a large set of macroeconomic data. The key advantage of using this model is that it allows extracting the impulse responses of a wide range of macroeconomic variables to structural shocks in the federal funds rate.FindingsThe results indicate that industries exhibit differential responses to an unanticipated monetary policy tightening. In general, manufacturing industries appear to be more sensitive compared to mining, and utility industries and durable manufacturing industries are found to be more sensitive than those within nondurable and other manufacturing industries to a monetary policy shock. While all industries respond to the policy shock, most of the responses are reversed between 12 and 22 months.Research limitations/implicationsThe implication of our results is that monetary policy can be used to impact most US industries for four years and beyond. The existence of disparate responses across industries underscores the difficulty of implementing a monetary policy that will generate the same impact across industries. As the effects of the policy are distinct, policymakers may want to attend to the unique impacts and implement industry-specific policy.Practical implicationsThe study is important in the context of the current challenges in the US economy caused by the spread of coronavirus. For example, to tackle the current pandemic, the researchers are trying to come up with cures for COVID-19. A considerable response of the chemical industry that provides materials to pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing to the monetary policy shock implies that an expansionary monetary policy may facilitate an invention and adequate supply of the cure later on. The same policy may not effectively stimulate production in apparel or leather product industries that are being hard hit by the pandemic.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the literature in broadly two aspects. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that investigates the impact of a monetary policy shock on a sample of 312 industries in manufacturing, mining and utilities in the US. Second, to identify structural shocks and investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic activity, the authors diverge from the literature's traditional approach, i.e. the vector autoregression (VAR) method and use a FAVAR method. The FAVAR provides a comprehensive description of the impact of a monetary policy innovation on different industries.

Government failures and non-performing loans in European countries: a spatial approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinando Ofria ◽  
Massimo Mucciardi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze the spatially varying impacts of corruption and public debt as % of GDP (proxies of government failures) on non-performing loans (NPLs) in European countries; comparing two periods: one prior to the crisis of 2007 and another one after that. The authors first modeled the NPLs with an ordinary lest square (OLS) regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the authors utilized the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and the proxies of “Government failures”.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first modeled the NPL with an OLS regression and found clear evidence of spatial instability in the distribution of the residuals. As a second step, the author utilized the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) (Fotheringham et al., 2002) to explore regional variations in the relationship between NPLs and proxies of “Government failures” (corruption and public debt as % of GDP).FindingsThe results confirm that corruption and public debt as % of GDP, after the crisis of 2007, have affected significantly on NPLs of the EU countries and the following countries neighboring the EU: Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, Montenegro, and Turkey.Originality/valueIn a spatial prospective, unprecedented in the literature, this research focused on the impact of corruption and public debt as % of GDP on NPLs in European countries. The positive correlation, as expected, between public debt and NPLs highlights that fiscal problems in Eurozone countries have led to an important rise of problem loans. The impact of institutional corruption on NPLs reports that the higher the corruption, the higher is the level of NPLs.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals Impacts of Monetary Policy on Commercial Banks’ Profits: The Case of Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Thanh Nhan Nguyen ◽  
Ngoc Huong Vu ◽  
Ha Thu Le
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
The Impact

This paper mainly concentrates on examining the impact of monetary policy on commercial banks’ profit in Vietnam by using panel data regression. In our study, the data is collected from 20 commercial banks which were doing business in Vietnam’s banking market, ranging from 2007 to 2014 in annually frequency. Monetary base (MB), discount rate (DIS) and required reserve ratio (RRR) are used as proxies for monetary policy. Profit before tax (PROFIT) is used to represent commercial banks’ performance. The results show that there is a positive relationship between banks’ profits and monetary policies. Among those chosen variables representing SBV’s monetary policy, only MB has a significant positive impact on bank’s profit at the significance level of 10%. On this premise, the study recommends that MB should be one of the variables in the center of being concerned in the SBV’s policies regarding the banking performance and stability.

scholarly journals Spillovers of US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies to Russian Financial Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.

The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 239-260
Author(s):  
Hongyi Chen ◽  
Andrew Tsang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Loan Quality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

This chapter uses the factor-augmented vector autoregression framework to study the impact on the Hong Kong economy of the diverging monetary policies by the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the slowdown of the Mainland economy. The empirical results show that shocks in US monetary policy rate mainly affect interest rate-sensitive sectors in Hong Kong and that monetary easing from the ECB and the BoJ somewhat offsets the impact of tightening of the Fed. Real variables such as real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are more sensitive to the economic slowdown in Mainland China. However, Hong Kong’s financial stability, particularly with regard to loan quality, banks’ capital and liquidity, is well maintained by macroprudential policies, suggesting that Hong Kong’s financial system is resilient to external shocks.

Business cycles in Ethiopia under alternative monetary policy rules

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-313
Author(s):  
Wondemhunegn Ezezew Melesse
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shocks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare business cycle fluctuations in Ethiopia under interest rate and money growth rules. Design/methodology/approach In order to achieve this objective, the author constructs a medium-scale open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model features several nominal and real distortions including habit formation in consumption, price rigidity, deviation from purchasing power parity and imperfect capital mobility. The paper also distinguishes between liquidity-constrained and Ricardian households. The model parameters are calibrated for the Ethiopian economy based on data covering the period January 2000–April 2015. Findings The main result suggests that: the model economy with money growth rule is substantially less powerful or more muted for the amplification and transmission of exogenous shocks originating from government spending programs, monetary policy, technological progress and exchange rate movements. The responses of output to fiscal policy shocks are relatively stronger under autarky which appears to confirm the findings of Ilzetzki et al. (2013) who suggest bigger multipliers in self-sufficient, closed economies. With regard to positive productivity shock, however, the model with interest rate feedback rule generates a decline in output and an increase in inflation, which are at odds with conventional empirical regularities. Research limitations/implications The major implication is that a central bank regulating some measure of monetary stocks should not expect (fear) as much expansion (contraction) in output following currency devaluation (liquidity withdrawal) as a sister central bank that relies on an interest rate feedback rule. As emphasized by Mishra et al. (2010) the necessary conditions for stronger transmission of interest-rule-based monetary policy shocks are hardly existent in emerging and developing economies targeting monetary aggregates; hence the relatively weaker responses of output and inflation in the model economy with money growth rule. Monetary policy authorities need to be cautious when using DSGE models to analyze business cycle dynamics. Quite often, DSGE models tend to mimic the proverbial “crooked house” built to every man’s advise. Whenever additional modification is made to an existing baseline model, previously established regularities break down. For instance, this paper documented negative response of output to technology shock. Such contradictions are not uncommon. For example, Furlanetto (2006) and Ramayandi (2008) have also found similarly inconsistent responses to fiscal and productivity shocks, respectively. Originality/value Using DSGE models for research and teaching purposes is not common in developing economies. To the best of the author’s knowledge, only one other Ethiopian author did apply DSGE model to study business cycle fluctuation in Ethiopia albeit under the implausible assumption of perfect capital mobility and a central bank following interest rate rule. The contribution of this paper is that it departs from these two unrealistic assumptions by allowing international risk premium as a function of the net foreign asset position of the country and by applying money growth rule which closely mimics the behavior of central banks in low-income economies such as Ethiopia.

International reserves: self-insurance and monetary policy in crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Francisco de Almeida da Silva Junior
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Constant Elasticity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constant Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
States Of Nature ◽  
Substitution Elasticities ◽  
Ces Utility Function ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis work presents a model of a two-period economy to discuss the link between the precautionary motivation for holding international reserves and the country's monetary policy concerns due to a crisis.Design/methodology/approachThere are two possible states of nature in the second period of the economy: a normal state and a crisis state. These states of nature represent uncertainty to the policy maker and he can insure against a crisis. The household has a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) utility function, where utility depends on consumption and money.FindingsBy allowing money in the utility function and in the household financial constraint and considering that the objective of the central bank is to smooth inflation, it is concluded that monetary policy plays a role in the precautionary motivation of holding international reserves.Practical implicationsThe model can be used to calculate optimal reserves holdings in its complete or even in its simplified version. Furthermore, it is possible to evaluate the impact of the intra-temporal substitution elasticity between consumption and real money in the decision of accumulating international reserves.Originality/valueHigher intra-temporal substitution elasticities implies in more insurance via international reserves, and this discussion is not found in the existent literature on international reserves.

scholarly journals The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Gendered Wealth Inequality

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigitte Young
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Household Finance ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Distributional Effects ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central Bankers

Unconventional monetary policy was implemented as a result of the financial crisis and resulted in rising asset prices in the stock markets. While the increase in asset prices is not exclusively triggered by unconventional monetary policy, central bankers accept that unconventional monetary policy has resulted in distributional effects on wealth, and that these are not negligible. What is missing are studies analyzing whether these non-standard monetary policies have different distributional effects on women and men. The intent of the paper is to interrogate whether unconventional monetary policy of central banks has a gender bias that operates in favor of men as gender and against women as gender. Relying on insights from feminist economics, the paper uses the results of the ECB Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) of 62,000 household across 15 euro-area countries. While the results are tentative, they show an asymmetric distributional gendered impact. Since the rich own more assets than the poor, and since monetary easing works in part by raising asset prices, these unconventional policies may unintentionally benefit the wealthier quintile (on average more male) at the expense of the poorer strata of society (on average more female).

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