Long run commonality in Indian stocks: empirical evidence from national stock exchange of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-458
Author(s):  
Gaurav Kumar ◽  
Arun Kumar Misra
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Order Book ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Limited Order Book ◽  
Liquidity Measures

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate long-run commonality in liquidity using multiple proxies computed from limited order book data of NIFTY50 stocks. The findings indicate the existence of systematic liquidity or commonality on NIFTY50 market and comprising industries. Design/methodology/approach The sample comprises all intraday transactions corresponding to NIFTY 50 stocks for April 2015. The study runs firm by firm time series regressions to test the concept of long-run commonality, while controlling other effects. Findings Strong evidence is found in support of long-run commonality across three liquidity measures. On the basis of significance (10%) of long-run commonality beta (βLR), the strength of long-run commonality is found to be highest in natural resources and infrastructure sector. Portfolios having greater exposure to these sectors will face diversification risk to a great extent. Practical implications Knowledge of long-run commonality helps portfolio managers in formulating diversification strategies and reshuffling the portfolio over the period. Commonality risk being non-diversifiable is a policy concern for regulators and central bankers. Its empirical evidence will assist in managing exchange organization and thus preventing market crashes because of sudden liquidity evaporation. Originality/value Although there are recent studies documenting commonality in short run, little empirical work has been done on commonality in the long run and in emerging markets such as India. This research contributes to the literature by testing concept of commonality in long-run on NIFTY50 stocks using detailed transaction data from National Stock Exchange.

The effect of social spending on reducing poverty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 620-632
Author(s):  
Ferdi Celikay ◽  
Erdal Gumus
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Social Expenditure ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between social expenditure and poverty in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach There are voluminous studies in the literature and many of which contain condradictory results. The authors use panel error correction models and employ Turkish statistical territorial units data (26 regions) covering the period 2004-2011 in the analysis. Findings The authors have found that in the short run, there is a negative relationship between social expenditure and poverty, as expected. In the long run, however, there exists a positive relation between them. The authors utilize expenditure on education as one component of social expenditure, and the authors obtain a negative relationship between education expenditure and poverty, both in the short run and in the long run. Social implications Poverty is an important social problem that more studies on this subject should examine various aspects and find policies to alleviate it. Originality/value Literature on poverty and social spending are growing and their results are contradictory. However, this paper clearly and significantly provides new empirical evidence on the effect of social spending on reducing poverty using Turkish data. This kind of study is hardly found for developing countries like Turkey. It contributes to the literature.

Fuels sales through retail chains and their store traffics and revenue

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-13
Author(s):  
Hojin Jung ◽  
Kyoung-min Kwon ◽  
Gun Jea Yu
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Consumer Welfare ◽  
Chain Store ◽  
Marketing Practice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Retail Chain ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeUsing panel data on gasoline and grocery transactions in Korea, the purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the effect of a retail chain store’s establishment of on-site fuel sales. The empirical analyses present strong empirical evidence that the sale of fuel had statistically and economically significant effect on retail store traffic and revenue in the short run. However, the effect did not remain significant in the longer run. To explain the dramatic decrease in the effect of the fuel sale, the authors consider the enhanced competition in the local gasoline retail industry and examine cross-sectional price variations at the station level. The results suggest that the increased competition led to the reduction in the price dispersion across stations and thereby to an increase in consumer welfare.Design/methodology/approachUsing a linear specification that has traditionally been used to model retail chain data, the authors developed a series of difference-in-differences models. This technique is ideal for estimating the effect of a treatment in the presence of possible selection bias and has been widely employed in many social-science studies on policy intervention.FindingsIn a certain environment, introducing fuel sales did not increase retail chain store traffic or revenue in the long run, despite having statistically and economically significant effects in the short run. The results document empirical evidence of myopic management in a common marketing practice, which often leads to a negative impact on the firm value in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThe span of data and sample size were limited to meet the company’s data protection policy.Practical implicationsConsidering that many of developed countries are characterized by a gasoline retail environment similar to that which is investigated in this paper, the authors believe that the implications of the results are particularly valid for practitioners and policy makers.Social implicationsThe findings document empirical evidence of myopic management in a common marketing practice, which often leads to a negative impact on the firm value in the long run. Marketing researchers should make efforts in establishing metrics to help identify myopic management decision.Originality/valueThis paper addresses an interesting and practical issue related to the effects of the introduction of gasoline sales by a supercenter store on its store traffic.

Do ‘Shariah’ indices surpass conventional indices? A study on Dhaka Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan Aarif ◽  
Muhammad Rafiqul Islam Rafiq ◽  
Abu N.M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Two Indices

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether the Sharīʿah indices outperform the conventional indices as evident from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). To achieve the objective, the study, first, assesses the risk adjusted returns of the Sharīʿah and conventional indices and compares the same between the two indices. Second, it examines the short-run and long-run associations between the two indices. Design/methodology/approach The DSEX Sharīʿah index and DSE broad index of the DSE are used as representatives of the Sharīʿah and conventional indices, respectively. The study uses monthly data for the period 2014–2018 and applies a number of techniques such as risk adjusted returns, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response functions techniques. Findings The study reveals that albeit there is no significant difference in simple mean between the two indices, the Sharīʿah index outperforms its conventional counterpart based on the risk adjusted returns. The two indices are associated only in the long-run, while no causal relationship is spotted between them. The overall results show that the Sharīʿah index has dominance over the conventional index in Bangladesh. Research limitations/implications The study could use more pairs of indices, including additional variables such as financial crisis and macroeconomic variables. Practical implications The study has important implications to investors, especially the religious Muslims and ethical ones, who are suggested to invest their funds in the Sharīʿah index without sacrificing returns, rather be monetarily more benefited. Moreover, the other investors can generate diversification benefits by adding both Sharīʿah and conventional indices in their portfolios in the short-run. Originality/value Unlike previous studies, this study endeavors to use a comprehensive methodology to conduct its analysis. Moreover, this is supposedly the first ever effort to conduct such a study in the context of Bangladesh.

Volatility of Malaysian conventional and Islamic indices: does financial crisis matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Abduh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to investigate the volatility of conventional and Islamic indices and to explore the impact of the global financial crisis toward the volatility of both markets in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach The data consist of financial times stock exchange group (FTSE) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah-Shari‘ah Index covering the period January 2008-October 2014. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity is used to find the volatility of the two markets and an ordinary least square model is then used to investigate the impact of the crisis toward the volatility of those markets. Findings Interestingly, the result shows that Islamic index is less volatile during the crisis compared to the conventional index. Furthermore, the crisis is proven to significantly affect the volatility of conventional index in the short run and Islamic index in the long run. Originality/value This study explores the volatility–financial crisis nexus, especially for the Islamic financial markets, which to the best of the author’s knowledge, is still lacking empirical research which may improve the understanding upon this issue.

Which Google keywords influence entrepreneurs? Empirical evidence from Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toan Luu Duc Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Asian Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Number Of Firms

Purpose This paper aims to shed light on an impact of Google keywords on the number of new businesses (and an amount of capital registered) in Vietnam, the Southeast Asian country, after the year of an entrepreneur, 2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a rich set of quantitative techniques from VAR Granger and threshold regression. The whole sample period covers the data (keywords, number of new businesses, an amount of capital invested to register) from the first week of 2016 to October 2018, which includes 144 observations in total. Findings The findings suggest that the relationship between Google does not persist in the long run. There is a short-run shock, might cause a change to the frequency of the other keywords rather than the number of firms (or an amount of capital). However, under the number of firms’ threshold, keywords have the both positive and negative impacts on entrepreneurs whereas a higher threshold of capital, keywords show their roles to predict an amount of money for registering firms. Practical implications The Vietnamese Government and executives are advised to consider the Google keywords “entrepreneur” (in Vietnamese) and “start-up”, which cause a decline in entrepreneurial movements. In addition, the current period is going to inverse from the previous one in terms of the number of firms and an amount of capital. Finally, there are two critical thresholds: 1,602 companies and 35,010m VND for the keywords' influence. Originality/value This study contributes empirical evidence of technological change and entrepreneurship and contributes to the existing literature by discussing how this relationship under the threshold.

scholarly journals The economic market outcomes and income distribution when capital is not homogeneous

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
Ahmet Özçam
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Problem ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
Constant Elasticity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose An aggregate production function has been used in macroeconomic analysis for a long time, even though it seems that it is conceptually confusing and problematic. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the measurement problem related to the heterogenous capital input that exists in macroeconomics is also relevant to microeconomic market situations. Design/methodology/approach The author constructed a microeconomic market model to address both the problems of the measurement of the physical capital and of substitutability between labor and capital in the short run using two types of technologies: labor neutral and labor reducing. The author proposed that labor and physical capital inputs are complementary in the short run and can become substitutes only in the long run when the technology advances. Findings The author found that even if the technology improves at a fast rate over time, there are then diminishing returns of profits to technology and an upper limit to profits. Moreover, the author showed that under the labor-reducing technology, labor class earns more initially as technology improves, but their incomes start declining after some threshold level of passage of time. Originality/value The author cautioned the applied researcher that the estimated labor and capital coefficients of generalized Cobb–Douglas and constant elasticity of substitution of types of production functions could not be interpreted as partial elasticities of labor and capital if in reality the data come from fixed-proportions types of processes.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

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