Emerging market currency risk exposure: evidence from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179
Author(s):  
Mashukudu Hartley Molele ◽  
Janine Mukuddem-Petersen
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November 2015. Foreign exchange risk exposure is estimated in relation to the exchange rate of the South African Rand relative to the US$, the Euro, the British Pound and the trade-weighted exchange rate index. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the augmented-market model of Jorion (1990). The Jorion (1990) is a capital asset pricing model-inspired framework which models share returns as a function of the return on the market index and changes in the exchange rate factor. The market risk factor is meant to discount the effect of macroeconomic factors on share returns, thus isolating the foreign exchange risk factor. In addition, the study further added the size, value, momentum, investment and profitability risk factors in line with the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model to account for the fact that equity capital markets in countries such as South Africa are known to be partially segmented. Findings Foreign exchange risk exposure levels were estimated at more than 40% for all the proxy currencies on the basis of the standard augmented market model. However, after controlling for idiosyncratic factors, through the application of the Fama–French three-factor model, the Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model, exposure levels were found to range between 6.5 and 12%. Research limitations/implications These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic facto0rs in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Originality/value This is the first study to apply the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model in the estimation of foreign exchange exposure of nonfinancial firms in the context of a SSA country. These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic factors in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets.

Residual foreign exchange risk: does CEO compensation matter?

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-600
Author(s):  
Ghassen Nouajaa ◽  
Jean-Laurent Viviani
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Ceo Compensation ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Agency Conflicts ◽  
Compensation Scheme ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hedging Policy ◽  
Exchange Risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether CEO compensation scheme may induce some agency conflicts in the foreign exchange risk hedging policy. Design/methodology/approach Residual exposure is a post-hedging variable computed as the ratio of unrealized foreign exchange risk gains/losses to international sales. The authors follow the optimal hedging theory developed by Smith and Stulz (1985). The residual foreign exchange risk exposure is a way to capture some consequences of the managerial risk aversion, whereas the compensation scheme granted to CEO reveals that of the shareholders. The authors interpret any deviation to the predictions of this theory as a mark that some agency conflicts exist. Findings CEO compensation (stock-options, shares and so) significantly influence the level of the residual foreign exchange risk exposure. Both in-the-money exercisable options and shares are negatively related to the residual exposure of foreign exchange risk. The authors also document that the effect of agency problems is rather contingent because shares and options have especially a negative impact when the level of foreign exchange risk is relatively high. Originality/value The residual FX risk exposure variable the authors promote in this paper completes the traditional proxies used to depict the corporate hedging policy such as the nominal or total fair value of currency derivatives (Davies et al., 2006), use of nominal values (Spanò, 2007), use of fair values of derivatives and the fraction of production hedged (Wang and Fan, 2011). The information that it conveys differs significantly from the one provided by traditional proxies because it captures the year-end post hedging firm’s risk profile.

The impact of exchange volatility exposure on firms’ foreign-denominated debts

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (11) ◽  
pp. 3035-3060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujuana Min ◽  
Oh Suk Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Foreign Exchange Exposure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Volatility ◽  
Exchange Risk Management

Purpose This research began by acknowledging that conventional analysis on the foreign exchange exposure could not adequately reflect firms’ risk management strategies, which firms take actions against uncertainties raised by foreign exchange. In order to conceptualize uncertainty aroused by foreign exchange, the purpose of this paper is to develop an index that could measure corporate profits’ sensitivity to foreign exchange uncertainty and examine its possibility of utilization. Design/methodology/approach As an alternative to foreign exchange exposure, the present research derived the foreign exchange volatility exposure and analyzed the determinants of foreign currency-denominated debt in terms of foreign exchange volatility exposure. The foreign exchange volatility exposure draws from partially differentiating a firm’s operating profits to the exchange rate volatility. Findings The major findings are as follows. First, before the Asian financial crisis, South Korean enterprises had similar responses to the exchange volatility exposure as compared with the exchange exposure on procuring foreign-denominated debt. Second, since the global financial crisis (GFC), not only have Korean firms’ response mechanisms to both exposures changed, but also the significance of exchange volatility exposure has been further emphasized. Furthermore, Korean companies have dealt with exchange uncertainties by decreasing foreign-denominated debt as their foreign exchange volatility exposure increased after GFC. In contrast, the influence of conventional exchange exposure on foreign-denominated debt has diminished. Research limitations/implications Future research should focus on several points. First, additional research could extend to foreign investors who have divergent perception and consideration in regard to foreign exchange risk management. Second, research on decision making and motivation in foreign currency choice should be conducted in order to deepen academic understanding. Third, research that refines the variables added in the current research should be conducted. Finally, as a way to manage foreign exchange volatility exposure, further investigation based on this study is possible. Practical implications The results of this study have several important theoretical and empirical implications for companies’ foreign exchange risk management strategy. First, through foreign exchange volatility exposure, which can usefully take over the role of the existing foreign exchange exposure, the authors can confirm market uncertainty as being relevant to the foreign exchange risk management strategy. Second, through the financial influence that the foreign exchange volatility exposure has on the foreign currency-denominated debt, the authors can observe the Korean firms’ paradigm shifts in their foreign exchange risk management strategies. Originality/value This research confirms the importance of foreign exchange volatility exposure in the research works dealing with firms’ exchange risk management, also the possible influence of foreign exchange volatility exposure in the future might be increased as uncertainty is raised from foreign exchange escalating.

Cryptocurrencies vs global foreign exchange risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 330-351
Author(s):  
Calvin W. H. Cheong
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Barriers To Entry ◽  
Alternative Mode ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Cost Efficient

Purpose This study aims to examine the properties of four major cryptocurrencies and how they can be used as a simpler alternative mode of hedging foreign exchange (FX) risks as compared to existing mainstream financial risk management techniques. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a combination of visual data representations and the classic Fama and Macbeth (1973) two-pass procedure regressions. Findings The findings show that cryptocurrencies can be a more effective hedge against FX risks as compared to other common hedging instruments and/or techniques such as gold or a diversified currency portfolio. Research limitations/implications The conclusions were arrived at based only on a small group of cryptocurrency, i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or ZCash might exhibit different properties. Practical implications Cryptocurrencies can be cost-effective and cost-efficient instruments that provide a solid hedge for investors and/or firms that are exposed to global FX volatility. Its ease of trade and virtually zero barriers to entry makes it an easily accessible alternative hedge instrument as compared to more complex items such as derivatives. Originality/value If cryptocurrencies are to be accepted into mainstream usage, a detailed examination of its various uses is necessary. In particular, as they are often touted to be the future of currency, its properties and price behavior relative to other mainstream financial instruments need to be well-understood, not only by finance professionals but also by laypersons.

Equity-linked executive compensation, hedging and foreign exchange exposure: Australian evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-93
Author(s):  
Blake Loriot ◽  
Elaine Hutson ◽  
Hue Hwa Au Yong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Executive Compensation ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Foreign Exchange Exposure ◽  
Exchange Risk Management

Using a sample of 268 Australian firms over the period 2009–2014, we examine the relation between the equity-linked compensation (shares and options) of Australian executives – CEOs, CFOs and directors – and firms’ foreign exchange hedging programmes. We find that the greater the number of shares held by CEOs, the higher its exposure to exchange rate movements. While this suggests that remuneration in the form of shares has a critical downside, we also find evidence for a more positive and important role in foreign exchange risk management for the share- and option-related incentives provided to CFOs. JEL Classification: G32, G15, F31

European Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aline Muller ◽  
Willem F. C. Verschoor
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Risk

scholarly journals The Interaction Between FX and Credit Risk as an Example of Intersection of Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Goals – The Case of Serbia

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155
Author(s):  
Željko Jović
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The financial system of Serbia is highly bank-centric and euroised, which is a common specific feature of financial systems in developing countries. High level of euroisation represents an adequate environment for the development of emphasized interaction of foreign exchange and credit risks; therefore, creation of the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk is immanent for euroised systems. Although maintaining the stability of the dinar exchange rate is a secondary goal of the National Bank of Serbia in relation to price and financial stability as the primary goals, in terms of existence of the aforesaid spillover mechanism, maintaining stability of the dinar exchange rate represents the area where there is an interaction between the goals of monetary policy (price stability) and those of financial stability policy (maintaining and strengthening the financial system’s stability). In order to explore whether the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk exists in Serbia’s financial system, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is applied on data from the Serbian banking sector to quantify the impact of changes in the dinar exchange rates on the rate of non-performing loans (NPLs); the sample was formed in the period of increased instability of the dinar exchange rate, from 31 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. As we have quantitatively confirmed the impact of increase in the dinar exchange rate on the increase of 90-120 days past due NPLs, we can conclude that the existence of expressed interaction between foreign exchange risk and credit risk in the Serbian financial system represents a paradigm of the regulator’s need to achieve contemporary goals of monetary and financial stability policy by maintaining relative stability of the dinar exchange rates. Depreciation of the local currency has inflationary pressure on price stability and simultaneously influences the achievement of financial stability goals through the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk. In addition to taking systematic measures to reduce the level of euroisation and introduce the specific regulatory requirements, in order to protect banks and clients from the dinar exchange rate volatility, the regulator faces extremely important task of maintaining relative stability of the dinar exchange rate as the instrument to simultaneous achievement of goals of monetary and financial stability policies.

Foreign-exchange risk dogs Central Europe

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Significance This unexpected appreciation surge came after several weeks of sharp currency swings, as contagion from the Greek crisis hit foreign exchange (FX) markets. In the 'Visegrad Four' (V4) -- Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- central banks remain on their guard in order to support national currencies and minimise the impact of either excessive depreciation or appreciation. Impacts A V4 government bond sell-off now looks unlikely, but yields on short-term debt will continue to rise in the near term, before stabilising. Short-term FX volatility is likely, but a significant liquidity crisis is unlikely owing to minimal exposure to Greek finances and trade. V4 central banks will want to hedge against FX risks, and monetary policy will remain loose for longer than expected.

scholarly journals Factors influencing SRI fund performance

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-81
Author(s):  
Halil Kiymaz
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Factor Models ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine socially responsible investment (SRI) fund performance and investigate the factors influencing fund performance. Design/methodology/approach The study uses return data from the Morningstar database for 152 SRI funds from January 1995 to May 2015. The initial analysis includes the use of various risk-adjusted performance measures, including Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Information ratio, Sortino ratio and M2. The study also uses four factor models, including Jensen single-factor model, Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and Fama–French five-factor model to explain SRI fund returns. Finally, a cross-sectional regression analysis is applied to investigate the determinants of SRI fund returns. Findings The results show that, on average, the SRI funds provide comparable risk-adjusted returns relative to various benchmark market indices. Market factor is significant in explaining SRI fund returns. Examining each factor model, the results do not support Fama–French’s three-factor model as neither size nor value factor is significant. The author finds weak support for Carhart’s momentum factor along with the market factor. Finally, the Fama–French five-factor model shows market, size and operating profit factors explain SRI fund returns. The study also finds the fund performance is stronger for funds with the higher turnover ratio, the larger fund size and more managerial experience and lower for funds with higher expense ratio. Also, funds formed with negative screening perform better than positive or mixed screened funds. Originality/value SRI funds have received considerable attention from investors. This study contributes to the literature by examining SRI fund performance and investigating factors influencing their performance using multiple factor models and cross-sectional regression analysis. The findings are relevant for investors who demand responsible investment opportunities without sacrificing returns for nonfinancial screenings. Findings also suggest that investors should consider fund characteristics when selecting SRI funds.

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