scholarly journals The Interaction Between FX and Credit Risk as an Example of Intersection of Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Goals – The Case of Serbia

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155
Author(s):  
Željko Jović
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The financial system of Serbia is highly bank-centric and euroised, which is a common specific feature of financial systems in developing countries. High level of euroisation represents an adequate environment for the development of emphasized interaction of foreign exchange and credit risks; therefore, creation of the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk is immanent for euroised systems. Although maintaining the stability of the dinar exchange rate is a secondary goal of the National Bank of Serbia in relation to price and financial stability as the primary goals, in terms of existence of the aforesaid spillover mechanism, maintaining stability of the dinar exchange rate represents the area where there is an interaction between the goals of monetary policy (price stability) and those of financial stability policy (maintaining and strengthening the financial system’s stability). In order to explore whether the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk exists in Serbia’s financial system, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model is applied on data from the Serbian banking sector to quantify the impact of changes in the dinar exchange rates on the rate of non-performing loans (NPLs); the sample was formed in the period of increased instability of the dinar exchange rate, from 31 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. As we have quantitatively confirmed the impact of increase in the dinar exchange rate on the increase of 90-120 days past due NPLs, we can conclude that the existence of expressed interaction between foreign exchange risk and credit risk in the Serbian financial system represents a paradigm of the regulator’s need to achieve contemporary goals of monetary and financial stability policy by maintaining relative stability of the dinar exchange rates. Depreciation of the local currency has inflationary pressure on price stability and simultaneously influences the achievement of financial stability goals through the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk. In addition to taking systematic measures to reduce the level of euroisation and introduce the specific regulatory requirements, in order to protect banks and clients from the dinar exchange rate volatility, the regulator faces extremely important task of maintaining relative stability of the dinar exchange rate as the instrument to simultaneous achievement of goals of monetary and financial stability policies.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald I McKinnon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations

What keeps the three major industrial blocs -- Western Europe, North America, and industrialized Asia -- from developing a common monetary standard to prevent exchange-rate fluctuations? One important reason is the differing theoretical perspectives of economic advisers. The first issue is whether or not a floating foreign exchange market -- where governments do not systematically target exchange rates -- is “efficient.” Many economists believe that exchange risk can be effectively hedged in forward markets so international monetary reform is unnecessary. Second, after a decade and a half of unremitting turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, economists cannot agree on “equilibrium” or desirable official targets for exchange rates if they were to be stabilized. The contending principles of purchasing power parity and of balanced trade yield very different estimates for the “correct” yen/dollar and mark/dollar exchange rates. Third, if the three major blocs can agree to fix nominal exchange rates within narrow bands, by what working rule should the new monetary standard be anchored to prevent worldwide inflation or deflation? After considering the magnitude of exchange-rate fluctuations since floating began in the early 1970s, I analyze these conceptual issues in the course of demonstrating how the central banks of Japan, the United States, and Germany (representing the continental European bloc) can establish fixed exchange rates and international monetary stability.

scholarly journals Exchange Rates and Liquidity Risk

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Martin D.D. EVANS
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Risk

I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for exposure to liquidity risk; and, for many currencies, exposure to liquidity risk appears to be more important than exposure to the traditional carry and momentum risk factors. I also find that variations in the price of liquidity risk make economically important contributions to the behavior of individual foreign currency returns: they account for approximately 34%, on average, of the variability in currency returns compared to the contribution of approximately 8% from the prices of carry and momentum risk.

Central Banks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Cukierman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
Developed Economies

The first CBs were private institutions that were given a monopoly over the issuance of currency by government in return for help in financing the budget and adherence to the rules of the gold standard. Under this standard the price of gold in terms of currency was fixed and the CB could issue or retire domestic currency only in line with gold inflows or outflows. Due to the scarcity of gold this system assured price stability as long as it functioned. Wars and depressions led to the replacement of the gold standard by the more flexible gold exchange standard. Along with restrictions on international capital flows this standard became a major pillar of the post–WWII Bretton Woods system. Under this system the U.S. dollar (USD) was pegged to gold, and other countries’ exchange rates were pegged to the USD. In many developing economies CBs functioned as governmental development banks.Following the world inflation of the 1970s and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, eradication of inflation gradually became the explicit number one priority of CBs. The hyperinflationary experiences of the first half of the 20th century, which were mainly caused by over-utilization of the printing press to finance budgetary expenditures, convinced policymakers in developed economies, following Germany’s lead, that the conduct of monetary policy should be delegated to instrument independent CBs, that governments should be prohibited from borrowing from them, and that the main goal of the CB should be price stability. During the late 1980s and the 1990s numerous CBs obtained instrument independence and started to operate on inflation targeting systems. Under this system the CB is expected to use interest rate policy to deliver a low inflation rate in the long run and to stabilize fluctuations in economic activity in the short and medium terms. In parallel the fixed exchange rates of the Bretton Woods system were replaced by flexible rates or dirty floats. The conjunction of more flexible rates and IT effectively moved the control over exchange rates from governments to CBs.The global financial crisis reminded policymakers that, of all public institutions, the CB has a comparative advantage in swiftly preventing the crisis from becoming a generalized panic that would seriously cripple the financial system. The crisis precipitated the financial stability motive into the forefront of CBs’ policy concerns and revived the explicit recognition of the lender of last resort function of the CB in the face of shocks to the financial system. Although the financial stability objective appeared in CBs’ charters, along with the price stability objective, also prior to the crisis, the crisis highlighted the critical importance of the supervisory and regulatory functions of CBs and other regulators. An important lesson from the crisis was that micro-prudential supervision and regulation should be supplemented with macro-prudential regulation and that the CB is the choice institution to perform this function. The crisis led CBs of major developed economies to reduce their policy rates to zero (and even to negative values in some cases) and to engage in large-scale asset purchases that bloat their balance sheets to this day. It also induced CBs of small open economies to supplement their interest rate policies with occasional foreign exchange interventions.

Equity-linked executive compensation, hedging and foreign exchange exposure: Australian evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-93
Author(s):  
Blake Loriot ◽  
Elaine Hutson ◽  
Hue Hwa Au Yong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Executive Compensation ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Foreign Exchange Exposure ◽  
Exchange Risk Management

Using a sample of 268 Australian firms over the period 2009–2014, we examine the relation between the equity-linked compensation (shares and options) of Australian executives – CEOs, CFOs and directors – and firms’ foreign exchange hedging programmes. We find that the greater the number of shares held by CEOs, the higher its exposure to exchange rate movements. While this suggests that remuneration in the form of shares has a critical downside, we also find evidence for a more positive and important role in foreign exchange risk management for the share- and option-related incentives provided to CFOs. JEL Classification: G32, G15, F31

Emerging market currency risk exposure: evidence from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179
Author(s):  
Mashukudu Hartley Molele ◽  
Janine Mukuddem-Petersen
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Three Factor

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the level of foreign exchange exposure of listed nonfinancial firms in South Africa. The study spans the period January 2002 and November 2015. Foreign exchange risk exposure is estimated in relation to the exchange rate of the South African Rand relative to the US$, the Euro, the British Pound and the trade-weighted exchange rate index. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the augmented-market model of Jorion (1990). The Jorion (1990) is a capital asset pricing model-inspired framework which models share returns as a function of the return on the market index and changes in the exchange rate factor. The market risk factor is meant to discount the effect of macroeconomic factors on share returns, thus isolating the foreign exchange risk factor. In addition, the study further added the size, value, momentum, investment and profitability risk factors in line with the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model to account for the fact that equity capital markets in countries such as South Africa are known to be partially segmented. Findings Foreign exchange risk exposure levels were estimated at more than 40% for all the proxy currencies on the basis of the standard augmented market model. However, after controlling for idiosyncratic factors, through the application of the Fama–French three-factor model, the Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model, exposure levels were found to range between 6.5 and 12%. Research limitations/implications These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic facto0rs in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Originality/value This is the first study to apply the Fama–French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model and the Fama–French five-factor model in the estimation of foreign exchange exposure of nonfinancial firms in the context of a SSA country. These results indicate the importance of controlling for the effects of idiosyncratic factors in the estimation of foreign exchange risk exposure in the context of emerging markets.

Foreign-exchange risk dogs Central Europe

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Significance This unexpected appreciation surge came after several weeks of sharp currency swings, as contagion from the Greek crisis hit foreign exchange (FX) markets. In the 'Visegrad Four' (V4) -- Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- central banks remain on their guard in order to support national currencies and minimise the impact of either excessive depreciation or appreciation. Impacts A V4 government bond sell-off now looks unlikely, but yields on short-term debt will continue to rise in the near term, before stabilising. Short-term FX volatility is likely, but a significant liquidity crisis is unlikely owing to minimal exposure to Greek finances and trade. V4 central banks will want to hedge against FX risks, and monetary policy will remain loose for longer than expected.

scholarly journals Determinants of foreign exchange risk management in Latin American firms

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 502-524
Author(s):  
César Augusto Giraldo-Prieto ◽  
Cristina De Fuentes ◽  
Francisco Sogorb-Mira
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify whether Latin American (LA) firms are adopting any hedging strategy when designing foreign exchange risk (FXR) measures. To that end, the authors explore the impact of several drivers of FXR management. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of 342 non-financial listed firms established in a group of representative countries of the LA region and covers the period from 2008 to 2016. Hypothesis testing is performed through a Logit model that measures the likelihood to adopt hedging practices. In addition, a Tobit test offers further insights into the derivatives users. Findings The authors corroborate capital structure-related hypotheses such as tax goals, financial distress, liquidity and growth opportunities. In addition, both ownership concentration and income tax payable seem to be negative and significant determinants of FXR coverage. Originality/value Results reported in this study are relevant for the LA region with high tradition in raw materials and commodities exports. The results show that LA firms still make limited use of derivatives and there is still much room for improvement. Hence, additional efforts to promote FXR hedging should be desirable, to meet authorities’ recommendations (OECD et al., 2007). Further research exploring corporate governance relationships and differences between large and small firms might be helpful.

Understanding Foreign Exchange Risk: An Instructional Simulation Exercise

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-195
Author(s):  
Joyce A. van der Laan Smith
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Thinking Skills ◽  
Critical Thinking Skills ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an instructional exercise designed to promote the learning of foreign exchange risk and accounting for foreign currency transactions. To promote critical thinking skills, the exercise uses an unstructured problem-solving format. I use the United Kingdom (U.K.) MONOPOLY™ board game to simulate a U.S. company investing in London real estate. Students conduct all transactions, on account, in British Pounds (GBP), maintain journals in U.S. dollars (USD), and prepare financial statements at game-end in USD. The instructor sets the exchange rate at the beginning of the game, changes it mid-game, and then offers a forward contract. The instructor alters the exchange rate again at the end of the game. Students perceived the exercise as effective in understanding foreign exchange risk and in learning the accounting for foreign currency transactions. Content analysis of students' responses about the exercise reveals that the most frequently used words in the comments were “fun” and “learn.”

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