An empirical study on the dynamic relationship between oil prices and Indian stock market

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarak Nath Sahu ◽  
Kalpataru Bandopadhyay ◽  
Debasish Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between oil price shocks and Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – The study used daily data for the period starting from January 2001 to March 2013. In this study, Johansen's cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, impulse response functions (IRFs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) test have been applied to exhibit the long-run and short-run relationship between them. Findings – The cointegration result indicates the existence of long-term relationship. Further, the error correction term of VECM shows a long-run causality moves from Indian stock market to oil price but not the vice versa. The results of the Granger causality test under the VECM framework confirm that no short-run causality between the variables exists. The VDCs analysis revealed that the Indian stock markets and crude oil prices are strongly exogenous. Finally, from the IRFs, analysis revealed that a positive shock in oil price has a small but persistence and growing positive impact on Indian stock markets in short run. Originality/value – The study would enhance the understandings of the interaction between oil price volatilities and emerging stock market performances. Further, the study would enable foreign investors who are interested in Indian stock market helps in understanding the conditional relationship between the variables.

Dynamic linkages among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Singhal ◽  
Sangita Choudhary ◽  
Pratap Chandra Biswal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context. Design/methodology/approach This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study. Findings Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals The impact of Indonesian oil price (CPI) and macroeconomics on investments in the manufacturing sector in Indonesia

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 338
Author(s):  
Handri Handri ◽  
Hendrati Dwi Mulyaningsih ◽  
Achmad Kemal Hidayat ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan ◽  
Ani Wahyu Rachmawati
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: Indonesia consumes oil as the main energy source in the production process and as a result of the development of the manufacturing industry. Thus, investment in manufacturing stocks will be affected by oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic conditions. Changes in oil prices will affect the performance of the manufacturing sector which in turn affects manufacturing stock prices. This paper aims to examine the impact of Indonesia's oil price shocks and macroeconomic factors on stock price movements in the manufacturing sector. Methods: This study uses monthly data for the 2009-2016 period in the manufacturing sector, and 67 stocks were selected on the basis consistently available in the period of the research. The cointegration and causality technique was used in this paper; firstly we applied a unit-panel root test, Secondly, we performed a residual test to indicate whether there was cointegration among variables in the long run equilibrium, and short the short run, we used a Granger causality test. Results: The panel unit root test (both Shin and Fisher) and the Pedroni cointegration residual test show that the data is stationary at 1%  level of significance, thus all variables simultaneously achieve long-run equilibrium, and in the short run, the Granger causality test shows that there is one way direction causality Conclusions: For long-term investment in manufacturing stocks, investors must consider the exchange rate, as it is also as a determining factor in influencing the movement of manufacturing stock prices, inflation, and the production index. Meanwhile, weakening of the rupiah in the short run will also determine investment conditions due to the dependency on raw materials for production from foreign sources. The price of oil as an energy source in the manufacturing sector does not have a long-term relationship with other variables.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beeralaguddada Srinivasa Veerappa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

scholarly journals REVISITING KEYNES’ INVESTMENT AND SAVING MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to analyze the Keynes’ investment and saving model in Indonesia from 1981 to 2018. The researchers use the econometric test from the Granger causality test to find the short-run causal relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model to reveal both the short-run and long-run effects in the model. The result of Granger causality test demonstrates that there is no short-run causal relationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the increase in saving affects the consumption loans more compared to the investment loans. Besides, increased consumption compared to saving has more influence in raising investment. However, the Vector Error Correction Model proves that saving negatively affects investment in the long-run. This model empirically supports the long-run Keynes’ investment and saving model. Consequently, the Indonesian government needs to consider saving as a policy instrument to increase investment in the longrun.

Do Macroeconomic Variables Impact the Indian Stock Market?

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Ul Islam ◽  
Mohsina Habib
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Stock Market

This paper is intended to study the impact of various macroeconomic variables on Indian stock market. Based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) propounded by Ross in 1976 and various other studies, a number of macroeconomic variables including, inflation, industrial production, exchange rate, money supply, interest rate, and oil price have been identified to have a significant impact on the stock market. We have applied the multivariate extension of the classical linear regression model computed on Ordinary Least Squares method and Granger Causality test to re-establish the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns over a period of 10 years from 2005 to 2015 using monthly observations. The results of this study show that only exchange rate has a significant negative impact on stock returns. The other macroeconomic variables are not significantly affecting stock returns, however, their impact is in accordance with the economic theory. The Granger Causality test reveals absence of any causal relationship between stock returns and macroeconomic variables, except in case of oil prices, where we find a unidirectional causal relationship running from stock returns to oil prices. However, the Granger Causality results should not be taken in the conventional meaning of causality, but results merely identifying precedence.

Cointegration of Asian Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence from India

GIS Business ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 25-40
Author(s):  
Beeralaguddada Srinivasa Veerappa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Indian Stock Market

At present stock return is significantly related to other global stock markets. The present paper empirically investigates the short run and long run equilibrium relationship between the stock market of India, Japan Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, and Australia monthly data during January 1995 to December 2013. Researcher employs correlation test, multivariate co-integration framework, Vector Auto Regressive error-correction model and Granger causality test with reference to financial up evils in Asia and world viz., Asian crisis (1997/98), financial crisis (2008) Inflation conditions, Natural disasters, financial up evils etc. of long run relationship. Results find that the Indian stock market return is significantly co-integrated with long run and short run situations/causalities in Asian Stock returns.

A dynamic relationship between crude oil price and Indian equity market: an empirical study with special reference to Indian benchmark index Sensex

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikhil Yadav ◽  
Priyanka Tandon ◽  
Ravindra Tripathi ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.FindingsThe study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.Originality/valueThe study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

scholarly journals Food versus crude oil: what do prices tell us? Evidence from China

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumeng Wang ◽  
Shuoli Zhao ◽  
Zhihai Yang ◽  
Donald J. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between the prices of rice, crude oil, wheat, corn and soybean in China and estimate the long-run and short-run price relationships. Design/methodology/approach – Using monthly price date over the period of January 1998-December 2013 in China, this paper employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to explore the cointegration relationship among the price variables and estimate the ARDL long-run price relationship and the short-run error correction process (ARDL-EC). Findings – The empirical results indicate that crude oil, as one of the forcing variables along with wheat, corn, and soybean prices, is effecting rice price in China. Both the long-run and short-run price transmission elasticity estimates suggest the importance of crude oil price on the formation of rice prices. Furthermore, the adjustment speed coefficient is found to be statistically significant, supporting the notion that there is an error correction mechanism for maintaining the long-run price relationship facing short-run shocks. Originality/value – This paper adopts four types of commodity food prices to explore the relationships with crude oil price. The evidence of market integration, including the degree of price transmission and the speed of adjustment, remains a crucial step to proceed with the government intervention.

Africa-China investment and growth link

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac Koomson-Abekah ◽  
Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.

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