Stock price movement around the merger announcements: insider trading or market anticipation?

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 821-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawan Jain ◽  
Mark A. Sunderman
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Merger Announcement ◽  
Merger Announcements

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the stock price movements for existence of informed trading prior to a merger announcement for the companies listed on the emerging markets of India for the period from 1996 to 2010. Design/methodology/approach – This study applies several event study methodologies and regression analyses to analyze the stock price movement surrounding a merger announcement. The paper divides mergers in two different types: industry merger cases and non-industry merger cases and in two different time periods: recession and boom. Findings – The results show that the information held only by insiders’ works its way into prices. The paper finds strong evidence of insider trading in the case of industry mergers and mergers during recessions. Practical implications – The results from this study have immediate policy implications for India and other developing markets as the paper provides the type of mergers and time periods when merger announcements are more susceptible to insider trading. Originality/value – The paper extends the literature on mergers and insider trading by analyzing firms trading on a developing capital market, which, unlike the developed markets, is characterized by inadequate disclosure and a weaker enforcement of securities regulations. The results support this notion and recommend Indian securities market regulators to tighten the lax regulations. In addition, the author document the divergence in price reaction to the merger announcements for different types of mergers: industry mergers and non-industry mergers, as well as for mergers during different market conditions: recession vs booming capital markets.

Reforms will help clean up China's securities market

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Financial Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Political Priority

Significance China's securities market has grown dramatically, but the rules that underpin its functioning have failed to keep pace and have been poorly enforced because regulators and courts lacked resources and the issue was never a political priority. Insider trading, stock price manipulation and other fraud is relatively common. Impacts A wide range of sectors and institutions will need to adjust, including investors, listed firms, traders, law enforcers and courts. Foreign firms investing in China will benefit from better protection from financial fraud. China may send judges abroad to learn from other systems; Europe is a more likely destination than the United States.

scholarly journals Forecasting stock price movement: new evidence from a novel hybrid deep learning model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Zhonglu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Deep Learning Model

PurposeThis study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.FindingsThe hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.Originality/valueThis study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.

Voluntary disclosures and market response to earnings announcements

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Dinesh Fernando ◽  
Justin Giboney ◽  
Richard A. Schneible
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Voluntary Disclosures ◽  
Release Date ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of voluntary disclosure on information asymmetry between investors and the average information content of subsequent the earnings announcement. Design/methodology/approach The authors use empirical methodology relying on multiple regression analyses. The authors estimate models of trading volume and stock returns around the earnings’ release date as a function of voluntary disclosures, measured using information in the 8-K statements. Findings Voluntary disclosures prior to the earnings release date increase trading volume related to stock returns. In addition, voluntary disclosures also reduce stock price movement around that date. Research limitations/implications The results indicate that voluntary disclosures increase trading volume related to stock returns around the earnings release date. Such increases indicate increased differential precision among investors, demonstrating that voluntary disclosures increase differences in opinion among investors. The reduced stock price movement around the earnings release date also show that voluntary disclosures reduce the information content of earnings. One limitation is that the measure of voluntary disclosures does not consider the variation in the information content of individual disclosures. Practical implications Firms who make voluntary disclosures will need to carefully consider how to structure such releases to minimize asymmetry between investors. Investors should pay greater attention to finding out, and interpreting, voluntary disclosures by firms. Social implications Regulators have previously expressed concern about leveling the playing field between more and less informed investors. The results showing increased differences in information as a result of voluntary disclosures provide valuable insights as regulators debate the balance of mandated and voluntary disclosure. Originality/value This is the first study to investigate the effect of voluntary disclosures on information asymmetry among investors using trading volume and, consequently, the first to find increased differences among investors that result from those voluntary disclosures. The paper is also the first to use a direct measure of voluntary disclosure developed by Cooper et al. to demonstrate the negative relation between voluntary disclosure and the average informativeness of earnings announcements.

scholarly journals Effect of insider trading on stock characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipta Kumar Nanda ◽  
Parama Barai
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Insider Trades ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Abnormal Volume ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper investigates if investors consider legal insider trading data while making investment decisions. If any investment decision is based on insider transactions, then it will result in abnormal stock characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to investigate if insider trading affects stock characteristics like price, return and volume. The paper further investigates the effect on stock characteristics after the trade of different types of insiders and the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the event study method to measure the abnormal price, return and volume. Two-stage least square regression is used to investigate the relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume.FindingsThe insider trades affect price, return and volume. The results are identical for both buy and sell transactions. The trades of different types of insiders have diverse effects on stock characteristics. The trades of substantial shareholders give rise to the highest abnormal price and return, whereas the promoters' trades result in the highest abnormal volume. No relationship is detected between abnormal return and volume.Originality/valueA novel method to calculate the abnormal price is proposed. The effect of trading of all types of insiders on stock characteristics is analyzed. The relationship between abnormal return and abnormal volume, after an insider trade, is investigated.

Effect of quarterly earnings announcement under different market conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santu Das ◽  
Jamini Kanta Pattanayak ◽  
Pramod Pathak
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Market Condition ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two different market conditions – booming followed by recessionary. Analysis of price effect of quarterly earnings announcements during the five-year period prior to trading suspension, which is also characterized by a booming market condition have been made. Similar analysis during the five-year period following the trading suspension and marked by recessionary market condition has also been carried out side by side. Design/methodology/approach – Event study methodology using daily returns and market model has been used for the purpose of analyzing the quarterly earnings announcement effects on the security prices of the firms. A sign test has also been used along with the event study. Findings – The study reveals that quarterly earnings announcement does not have statistically significant effect on stock returns during the booming as well as the recessionary market conditions. The impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of firms constituting the SENSEX has been similar for both periods undertaken in the study. Research limitations/implications – The study has been undertaken using the firms listed in BSE SENSEX. The effect of the quarterly earnings announcement with reference to firms listed in other indices, if covered, may provide different sets of results. Originality/value – The paper identifies the informational value of quarterly earnings announcement of BSE-SENSEX.

Changes in information environment and merger announcements

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-145
Author(s):  
Bhanu Balasubramnian ◽  
Kathleen Fuller ◽  
Tanja Steigner
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Information Leakage ◽  
Information Environment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
Announcement Returns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Merger Announcements

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of regulatory changes by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2000 on private information leakage prior to merger announcements. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of 5,045 merger announcements between 1990 and 2008, the authors examine differences in information leakage between the pre- and post-regulation period merger announcements for acquirers using regression analysis. Findings The results suggest that regulatory changes have been effective in preventing private information leakage in merger announcements for large- and medium-sized firms, for high-tech firms, and for stock deals. The authors find that abnormal trading volume due to differences in information quality is reduced post-regulation for stock deals, high-tech firms, large- and medium-sized bidders, indicating less leakage of information after the new regulations. The authors find higher announcement returns post-regulation for the entire sample and for all subsamples except stock deals, small firms, and public targets. Higher announcement returns indicate that merger announcements are a greater surprise to the market due to a reduction in leaked private information after the regulatory changes. Practical implications The results have implications on future rule changes, on refinements of insider trading rules, regulation fair disclosure, and regulation M-A. The authors leave for future research why certain types of firms or deals are not impacted by regulatory changes. Originality/value Examine the effect of changes in information environment on merger announcements for acquirers because the impact likely has greater significance on acquirers than that on targets. Past studies have examined only targets.

Does corporate tax aggressiveness explain future stock price crash? Empirical evidence from France

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Taher Hamza ◽  
Elhem ZAATIR
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Corporate Tax ◽  
Price Informativeness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Aggressiveness ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of corporate tax aggressiveness on future stock price crash. It also tests the corporate tax aggressiveness prediction power of the stock price crash via a long forecast window (two years). Design/methodology/approach The study sample consisted of 1,169 firm-years observations. The multivariate analysis uses three measures of stock price crash risk, as a dependent variable. The key variable is tax aggressiveness lagged by one period (one year) as all independent variables. As a robustness check, this paper uses alternate measures of earning management and a longer forecast window (two years) to predict stock price crash risk. Findings Tax aggressiveness activity is positively related to a firm-specific future stock price crash. Corporate tax aggressiveness predicts stock price crash risk for a long forecast window (two years). The findings are robust to a number of checks and have several policy implications. Practical implications Investors should be cautious about the different risks of corporate tax aggressiveness: stock price crash risk. The important role of firm disclosure which leads to more relevant stock price informativeness. Adopt accounting conservatism behavior. The market perceives a socially irresponsible behavior and may harm the firm reputation. Social implications Incentives for French regulators to reduce the feeling of injustice by SMEs vis-à-vis large international companies that have the possibility of transferring part of their profits to a country different from that where it should be taxed to reduce their tax bases. Originality/value French companies are among the heavily taxed in Europe which makes France a particularly suitable context for studying tax aggressiveness issues. The first in the French context, that document a significant and positive relation between tax aggressiveness and future crash risk. It focuses on the important role of corporate tax planning as a means of withholding bad news and its consequences in inflating stock prices.

A theory of managerial tax aggression: evidence from China, 2008-2013 (9702 observations)

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanhui Li ◽  
Ying Luo ◽  
Jiali Wang ◽  
Check-Teck Foo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Market Process ◽  
Market Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Aggressiveness ◽  
Institutional Monitoring ◽  
Information Opacity ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the economic consequence of the tax reductive strategy on stock price. The authors’ theory, empirically reinforced, suggests managerial tax aggressiveness endangers the corporation through a heightened risk in stock price crashing. Information opacity worsens the situation by reinforcing the relationship. Policymakers should emphasize two aspects: market openness and tighter institutional monitoring. The evidence shown in this paper demonstrates that these two weaken the tax aggressiveness impact on risk of a crashing stock price. Design/methodology/approach The sample in this paper consists of 9,702 observations from listed firms from 2008 to 2013 in China. The tax rate is manually collected and all the other original data used in this study are sourced from Wind and China Capital Market and Accounting Research databases. Both logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression methods are used to test the hypothesis in this paper. Findings One key insight is in tax aggressiveness to be strongly correlated with a greater risk of future stock price crashing. The authors also found information opacity to exert a positive moderating effect. That is, the higher the information opacity, the stronger and more positive the correlation between tax aggression and stock price crash risk. However, the market process and an institutional investor have opposite, negative impacts. An open market environment reduces their correlativeness. Similarly, stronger institutional vigilance leads to an attenuation of such a co-relationship. Practical implications The findings of this paper have wide policy implications for management and control by authorities of listed corporations. Aggressiveness in management of corporate taxes accentuates the risks borne by stockholders. If so, internally within the corporation, such aggression shown by management, if not proscribed, could be subject to scrutiny, possibly by an independent committee. Externally, this may be countered by the authority in emphasizing three key factors: openness in information sharing, the market environment and tighter institutional monitoring. Originality/value This study provides a consequential theory of aggressive management of tax, rigorously analyzed and strongly, empirically supported. Overall, aggressiveness in tax management is related with assumption of higher risks in the crashing of stock price. The relationship is enhanced through information opacity, but reduced via market environment and institutional monitoring.

scholarly journals A Basic Technical Analysis of Shares on the Example of a Specific Company

2021 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 01041
Author(s):  
Jakub Horak ◽  
Jiri Sulek
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
The Given

This paper deals with the technical analysis of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) shares. The first signal for the stock price movement was created on the basis of the intersections of moving averages, namely after intersecting the shorter average through the longer average. This signal signifies a drop in the share price. The same signal was generated after comparing the trend of the share price and the trend of the trading volumes. It is these particular trends that have a different direction. Consequently, this is an indicator for a decline in the share price. The last signal created a graphical pattern called symmetric bear triangle which also predicts a drop in the stock price. Only one indicator did not generate a signal for price increase or decrease, namely the RSI with a 14-day period. The examined data collection contains data from 2.1.2015 to 29.4.2020. At the same time, all presented results and predictions are based on the date of April 29, 2020. Finally, the use of the given indicators for different titles, assets or for different types of trade with different lengths is evaluated and proposed. The paper provides suggestions of measures for investors and speculators which should be applied before the start of the analysis.

scholarly journals Testing for bubbles in the BRICS stock markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 646-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsangyao Chang ◽  
Luis Gil-Alana ◽  
Goodness C. Aye ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Omid Ranjbar
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Multiple Bubbles

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) stock markets. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors apply the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, a new recursive test proposed by Phillips et al. (2015) and use monthly data on stock price-dividend ratio. Findings The empirical results indicate that there exist multiple bubbles in the stock markets of the BRICS. Further, the dates of the bubbles also correspond to specific events in the stock markets of these economies. This finding has important economic and policy implications. Originality/value The authors declare that this paper is original and has not been published by another journal previously.

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