Pyongyang finds few alternatives as China ties fray

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Kim Jong Il ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Potential Alternative ◽  
Korean State

Subject The outlook for China-North Korea foreign relations. Significance A ceremony in Pyongyang on December 17 marked the third anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il. Unlike on previous occasions, no Chinese delegation was invited. Official exchanges between North Korea and its sole ally have slowed to a trickle. Beijing has frozen investment in North Korean infrastructure. Chinese and North Korean state media exchange critical remarks. Frustrated with Pyongyang's snubs and its perseverance with its nuclear weapons programme, Beijing is putting more pressure on North Korea than ever before -- while Pyongyang attempts to reduce China's ability to do this and retaliates in kind. Impacts North Korea's dire track record vis-a-vis foreign investors will hamstring its attempts to drum up investor interest more widely. Despite China's presumed influence, Chinese investors are far from immune to political risk. Political risk has increased for Chinese investors in North Korea, but has not fallen for non-Chinese investors. Russia will be offered investment opportunities in North Korea, but will accept only projects viable on purely commercial grounds. Though disappointment has repeatedly followed promising signs, South Korea offers the highest-potential alternative to Chinese investment.

US Congress will leave Trump nuclear authority intact

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
North East ◽  
The Us ◽  
Carry Over

Significance The standoff with North Korea has led the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on the president’s authority to order a nuclear first strike. This is the first such formal examination of the executive branch’s nuclear prerogatives and procedures by Congress since 1976. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration is planning on upgrades to the US arsenal to boost Washington’s ability to wage a nuclear war and has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with North Korea in its public remarks. Impacts The probable US deployment of new tactical nuclear weapons will not carry over to delegating attack authority to commanders in a crisis. Chinese and Russian anti-access/area-denial systems may trigger more US reliance on nuclear deterrence in the Baltics and North-east Asia. Improved weapons technology convincing policymakers that first strikes are prudent pose greater risks than unbalanced political leadership.

Eastern EU must now scrutinise Chinese investment more

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Chinese Companies ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Central Eastern

Subject Shifts in Chinese investment in Central-Eastern Europe. Significance Initial enthusiasm for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), driven by the region’s often critical need for infrastructure investment, has ebbed. Impacts Beijing’s interests will decide which investment opportunities are pursued in CEE. From the CEE side, China will not always receive favourable investment terms and EU cohesion is not necessarily under threat. Scepticism about the soundness of Chinese companies will rise after a number of well-publicised debt defaults.

Xi visit may revive North Korea nuclear diplomacy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agenda Item ◽  
Intermediary Role ◽  
Nuclear Diplomacy

Subject North Korea's foreign relations. Significance China’s President Xi Jinping visited Pyongyang on June 20-21, ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka where he will meet his US counterpart Donald Trump. Trump is then due in Seoul on June 29-30 to meet President Moon Jae-in. Reports that Trump may visit Panmunjom in the inter-Korean Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) have sparked speculation of steps to revive nuclear diplomacy, possibly even including an unannounced third summit with Kim. Impacts North Korea will be Trump’s main agenda item in Seoul, so some initiative seems likely. South Korea risks being sidelined if nuclear diplomacy resumes, with China perhaps taking the intermediary role. If Trump and Kim meet at Panmunjom, that would boost Moon’s position; the more so if he joins them.

Criminal state: understanding narcotics trafficking networks in North Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1014-1026
Author(s):  
Zhongmin Liu
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Survival Strategies ◽  
Sovereign State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Production And Distribution ◽  
Narcotics Trafficking ◽  
Korean State

Purpose In North Korea, illicit activities directly or implicitly supported by the North Korean Government are an integral part of the nation’s survival strategies. This study aims to discuss how North Korea directs its national power and resources to facilitate narcotics trafficking activities and how the role of North Korean State in the narcotics trafficking network has changed over time since the 1970s. Design/methodology/approach Analysis of narcotics trafficking in North Korea has primarily involved a review of secondary data, including previous academic research in this field, news articles, circumstantial and forensic evidence, seizure data and defector testimony. Findings This paper argues that prior to 2000, North Korea was systematically and directly engaged in narcotics production and distribution. The nation state could be regarded as a form of “criminal sovereignty”, because the sovereign state is itself criminal. However, in the post-2000s, North Korea’s Government began to gradually withdraw from narcotics trafficking, creating space for various non-state actors – such as criminal syndicates, private traders and local officials – to enter the once-monopolistic network. De-centralisation of narcotics trafficking network in North Korea suggests that the state’s criminal sovereignty may be gradually eroding and the pattern of state criminalisation in North Korea may be transforming. Originality/value This paper draws on theories concerning state criminalisation to understand the changing dynamics of narcotics trafficking network in North Korea.

Missile and minister's purge raise North Korea risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Service ◽  
Economic Improvement

Subject North Korea's politics and foreign relations. Significance North Korea on May 9 announced its first ever test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). Separately, Pyongyang has yet to comment on allegations by South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) on May 13 that the North's defence minister, Hyon Yong-chol, was publicly executed using anti-aircraft guns around April 30, apparently for disrespect and disobedience to Kim. Impacts Delivering on pledges of economic improvement would buy Kim loyalty, but there are reasons for pessimism. The new missile threat will raise North Korea's place on the list of US priorities. Decisions on missile defence in South Korea will become more urgent.

Disunity on North Korea will dissipate nuclear fallout

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Nuclear Fallout ◽  
Korean State ◽  
Policy Shifts

Significance Separately, North Korean state media announced today the arrest of a US tourist for an unspecified "hostile act". Impacts Inter-Korean ties will suffer, but Kim had already given up on President Park Geun-hye. Upcoming elections in the United States and South Korea militate against new policy initiatives. Seoul's relations with Beijing will cool, while those with Tokyo improve somewhat. The Congress of the North's ruling Workers' Party in May, will give clues about personnel and policy shifts.

North Korean cybertheft will grow as sanctions bite

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Korean State

Subject North Korean state cybercrime. Significance Hacker groups linked to North Korea are believed to be behind some of the world's most aggressive cyberattacks. They are a potential threat to many organisations -- public, private and non-profit alike. Impacts States where North Korean hacking cells are located will come under pressure from victim states to eliminate them. Revenue-seeking North Korean cybercrime will target cryptocurrency holders and large financial institutions. States that are victims of North Korea cyberattacks will likely respond via non-cyber means, such as economic sanctions.

Prospects for North Korea in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Kim Jong Il ◽  
The Face ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject Prospects for North Korea in 2018. Significance 2018 will be Kim Jong-un’s seventh year as supreme leader, a role he inherited on the death of his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011. Turning 34 in January, he has consolidated power and has no known rivals, but he faces grave challenges of his own making: how far and fast to push ahead with nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing in the face of US threats.

Greek OBOR role could spark wider Chinese investment

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Cultural Exchanges ◽  
Global Logistics ◽  
Ship Repair

Subject Growing economic cooperation between China and Greece. Significance Chinese capital could help generate the domestic investment and employment necessary for Greece’s long-awaited economic growth revival. Stable investment focused on such sectors as infrastructure, energy and telecommunications, applied consistently along the new ‘Silk Road’, could isolate Chinese investment in Greece from short-term political disturbance. Moreover, re-establishing a good track record for investment projects could bring Greece back onto the radar of European investors, who have lately shown only limited interest. Impacts Chinese investment in Greece will allow further expansion into the Balkans capitalising on location and Greek regional business experience. Chinese involvement may improve Greece’s position in global logistics routes and global supply chains, such as ship repair in Piraeus. Stronger cultural ties are being established, including twin-city cooperation and cultural exchanges.

Chinese investment in United States will not recover

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Business Opportunities

Subject Chinese investment in the United States. Significance Chinese investment in the United States has suffered a double blow from deteriorating US-China relations and restrictions put in place by China’s own government. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased rapidly until 2016, making China an important source of FDI for the United States. Since then they have sharply declined. Impacts Chinese companies will look more actively for investment opportunities in other developed countries, especially in Europe. Washington is likely to press its allies to restrict FDI from China and to coordinate policies, citing security concerns. US businesses will be negatively affected by a weaker inflow of ‘China money’. US firms will find it harder to establish links with China, which may cause them to miss business opportunities there. China’s government will provide support for Chinese firms to acquire US high-tech firms.

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