US Congress will leave Trump nuclear authority intact

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Nuclear War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
North East ◽  
The Us ◽  
Carry Over

Significance The standoff with North Korea has led the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on the president’s authority to order a nuclear first strike. This is the first such formal examination of the executive branch’s nuclear prerogatives and procedures by Congress since 1976. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration is planning on upgrades to the US arsenal to boost Washington’s ability to wage a nuclear war and has raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with North Korea in its public remarks. Impacts The probable US deployment of new tactical nuclear weapons will not carry over to delegating attack authority to commanders in a crisis. Chinese and Russian anti-access/area-denial systems may trigger more US reliance on nuclear deterrence in the Baltics and North-east Asia. Improved weapons technology convincing policymakers that first strikes are prudent pose greater risks than unbalanced political leadership.

US Congress will seek greater foreign policy control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Damage Control ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Control ◽  
Sticking Point

Significance The resolution was a Democratic attempt at damage control after comments by a newly elected caucus member that were perceived as anti-Semitic: the party fears being tagged as ‘anti-Israel’ before 2020’s elections. This resolution is the latest move in a brewing congressional battle over the Boycott-Divest-Sanction movement, which brings together several US anti-Israel groups. The rallying cry for this issue is the proposed Israel Anti-Boycott Act, which has 292 co-sponsors in the House and 58 in the Senate. Impacts The White House will resist congressional efforts to limit the president’s foreign policy powers. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be agreed but could be delayed for final changes. Congress will seek a greater role on US North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran policy. US-Russia policy will be a sticking point between the Democrats and Trump White House.

Puerto Rican shutdown would increase default fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Federal Intervention ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
General Obligation Bonds ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.

Disagreement possible over pace of Myanmar-US policy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Labour Rights ◽  
Generalized System ◽  
Generalized System Of Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Aung San Suu Kyi ◽  
Policy Engagement

Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.

Taiwan will benefit from US-China friction

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
State Department ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opening Ceremony ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
At Home

Significance Taiwan-US relations got a symbolic boost when the US government opened a new 250-million-dollar institute to house the de facto embassy in Taipei, Taiwan's capital, on June 12. President Tsai Ing-wen, and a US delegation that included representatives from Congress and the State Department, attended the opening ceremony. It may have received greater attention and perhaps higher-ranking US representation had the first US-North Korea summit not been scheduled for the same day. Impacts Taiwan's president will be constrained from improving China ties by anti-China sentiment at home. More businesses could come under Chinese pressure as cross-Strait relations deteriorate further. Taiwan-US military cooperation will prompt more aggressive Chinese efforts to diminish Taiwan's standing and increase military intimidation.

Turkish suspicion may derail Syrian Kurds’ unity deal

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Transition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The Us ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party

Significance The PYD controls the US-backed Kurdish-led administration in north-east Syria. It was the target of an October 2019 invasion by Turkey, which equates it with its own rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Impacts Coupled with new sanctions, Washington will seek to use the unity deal as part of its push for political transition in Damascus. The Kurdish-led administration is unlikely to revive plans for elections, which would provoke a new clash with Damascus. Kurdish fighters will prepare for a possible renewed Turkish attack, digging tunnels and planning a return to the border.

Added US sanctions on Syria may prove self-defeating

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
Economic Tools

Significance This comes as the US Congress is finalising a bill, the Caesar Act, that would substantially increase the sanctions pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. As Washington’s military footprint in the Syrian theatre shrinks, it is reprioritising the use of economic tools. Impacts With no exposure to the United States, Iranian and Russian companies doing business with Syria will not be significantly affected. The main losers could be US partners, who had hoped that a Syrian recovery would aid their own economies and regional integration. Black market activity may proliferate in the Levant as criminal groups help establish alternative mechanisms to supply goods and services. Sanctions will make life more difficult for the average Syrian, restricting economic growth and reconstruction.

Abe's US visit tightens alliance ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Military Alliance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Japanese Prime Minister ◽  
The Military

Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Pyongyang finds few alternatives as China ties fray

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Kim Jong Il ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Potential Alternative ◽  
Korean State

Subject The outlook for China-North Korea foreign relations. Significance A ceremony in Pyongyang on December 17 marked the third anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il. Unlike on previous occasions, no Chinese delegation was invited. Official exchanges between North Korea and its sole ally have slowed to a trickle. Beijing has frozen investment in North Korean infrastructure. Chinese and North Korean state media exchange critical remarks. Frustrated with Pyongyang's snubs and its perseverance with its nuclear weapons programme, Beijing is putting more pressure on North Korea than ever before -- while Pyongyang attempts to reduce China's ability to do this and retaliates in kind. Impacts North Korea's dire track record vis-a-vis foreign investors will hamstring its attempts to drum up investor interest more widely. Despite China's presumed influence, Chinese investors are far from immune to political risk. Political risk has increased for Chinese investors in North Korea, but has not fallen for non-Chinese investors. Russia will be offered investment opportunities in North Korea, but will accept only projects viable on purely commercial grounds. Though disappointment has repeatedly followed promising signs, South Korea offers the highest-potential alternative to Chinese investment.

Venezuela's Maduro on the back foot as crisis mounts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Multilateral Institutions ◽  
Basic Goods ◽  
The Us ◽  
Regional Organisations ◽  
Foreign Ministry

Significance Pressure on Caracas has intensified over recent weeks, elevating expectations that President Nicolas Maduro will be forced to stand down well ahead of the December 2018 presidential elections. Regional organisations and multilateral institutions are manoeuvring to engineer regime change, or to contain the fall-out from an abrupt and destabilising political shift. This is a particularly perilous period for the Maduro government with 2 billion dollars in loan payments falling due in April as international reserves hit record lows and shortages of basic goods deepens. Impacts The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry will engage in intense regional diplomacy to preclude decisive OAS action. The US Congress will push for broader sanctions on Venezuelan officials in order to support OAS actions. Speculation will intensify that Venezuela will default. Venezuelan instability may increase risks in neighbouring Colombia.

Papal visit is part of Cuba's international opening

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
State Institution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
International Financial Institution ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us ◽  
Paris Club

Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.

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