Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Angolan oil sector reform will require innovation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
Oil Company

Subject Sonangol priorities. Significance Early structural reforms by new President Joao Lourenco and more positive economic projections for 2018 suggest a potential uptick in Angola’s fiscal fortunes. Since assuming power in September, Lourenco has overhauled the leadership of state-owned oil company Sonangol and dismissed several prominent officials associated with his predecessor Jose Eduardo dos Santos. Separately, Lourenco has moved to tackle the overvalued kwanza. While this will raise debt-servicing costs, this will be partly ameliorated by the recent oil price of over 60 dollars per barrel. Impacts Scrapping the dollar currency peg will help ease the foreign exchange crisis and end payment constraints in the aviation and oil sectors. A more realistic exchange rate will fuel inflation in the short term but will likely improve medium-term economic prospects. Urban support for the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) could decline further if reforms remain elite-focused.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anver Chittangadan Sadath ◽  
Rajesh Herolli Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results confirm that oil price shock has a significant impact on various macroeconomic variables used in the study. Specifically, shocks emanating from a decline in oil price have a stronger positive impact on real GDP, whereas, a shock due to the rise in oil price has a weaker negative impact on real GDP. Impulse responses confirm that shocks due to a decline in oil prices are long-lasting compared to similar shocks due to a rise in oil prices. Therefore, this study concludes that the macroeconomic impact of oil price shock is asymmetric in India. Originality/value This paper adds the following new insights: First, this paper presents a distinct relationship between the growth rate of oil price and GDP during increasing and decreasing phases of oil price to drive home the case for this study. Second, India has adopted crucial administrative initiatives such as deregulation of the market for petroleum products and the promotion of renewable energy during the study period. Finally, previous studies have revealed specific behavioral and economic features of people in India with respect to the demand for petroleum products. In light of these factors, this paper based on Indian experience would be justified.

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1242-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Zhong Yao ◽  
Peng Cheng Kuang ◽  
Ji Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Causal Path

Purpose The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets. Design/methodology/approach The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method. Findings The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices. Originality/value China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

Oil prices and bank credit risk in MENA countries after the 2008 financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-247
Author(s):  
Rui Wang ◽  
Hang (Robin) Luo
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Macroprudential Policies

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the oil price–bank risk nexus by considering the heterogeneity of bank characters. Design/methodology/approach This paper empirically tests the effect of oil price movements on bank credit risk by using a sample of 279 banks in the Middle East and North Africa countries from 2011 to 2017. Findings Authors find robust evidence that the credit risk of bank loan portfolios is negatively associated with increased oil prices. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of asset quality improvement brought about by rising oil prices is more salient in conventional banks, and banks with small size, low liquidity and whose funding source relies on customers’ deposits. Practical implications The results favor the diversification of bank funding sources, the improvement of a country’s financial development, the adoption of explicit deposit insurance and macroprudential policies, such as countercyclical liquidity buffers, to weaken the adverse impact of oil prices declines. Originality/value The present paper enriches the literature of oil price–bank risk nexus by analyzing the heterogeneity of bank characters and advances our knowledge on the determined factors of bank riskiness and vulnerability.

Russia spillover, low oil price will challenge Astana

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Ukrainian Crisis ◽  
Domestic Products ◽  
Global Growth

Significance The slowing down of Kazakhstan's economy continues against a background of slow global growth, the turbulent economic situation in Russia and low oil prices. Lower-than-projected oil prices will reduce budget revenues and forecasts; on January 16, Astana said it was revising its budgets for 2015-17 to mirror an average oil price of 50 dollars/barrel, as current budgets were based on 80 dollars/barrel. The blow will be softened by substantial reserves, which are expected to be used to stimulate the economy. Dwindling demand for commodities will negatively affect the profitability of Kazakhstan's major producers. The cumulative spillover from the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is substantial, although manageable at present. Impacts Further devaluation of the tenge would undermine public confidence in Kazakhstan's national currency. Increased dollarisation of Kazakhstan's economy will make regulation difficult by monetary policy. Ruble depreciation will put pressure on the tenge and promote replacement of domestic products with Russian imports.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

OPEC deal would encourage US shale producer rally

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Eagle Ford Shale ◽  
Eagle Ford ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Companies ◽  
West Texas ◽  
The Us ◽  
Shale Recovery

Significance The US shale industry has emerged from the worst of the crude price downturn battered, but also leaner and more efficient. Many shale producers are eager to return to growth, buoyed by a more stable oil price at around 50 dollars per barrel. However, oil prices need to rise somewhat higher still to give enough of a jolt to the industry to see US oil production return to meaningful growth. Impacts Oilfield service companies, especially fracking specialists, stand to gain if shale drilling activity picks up on the back of higher prices. The Permian shale in West Texas will lead any US shale recovery, due to its lower costs and large reserves, boosting the region’s economy. The Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays will follow the Permian shale in a price recovery. Prices above 70 dollars per barrel would probably be required for investment to return to Gulf of Mexico deepwater projects.

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arab State ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Verbal Exchanges

Significance This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia in mid-September. The two countries' mutual hostility prevented Iranian citizens from taking part in the hajj. Iran's developing ties with both Russia and Turkey are also raising mutual tension with Saudi Arabia. Impacts Tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinder future efforts by oil producers to agree a strategy leading to a rise in global prices. Mutual hostility between Tehran and Riyadh will be a major factor behind the failure of international efforts to end the war in Yemen. Medium-term low oil prices may threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to provide further financial bail-outs to Egypt, a key Sunni Arab state.

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