ECB QE and growth may obscure Polish political risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inconclusive Result ◽  
The Us

Significance Having fallen against the resurgent dollar this year, the zloty has lately been strengthening, since the US Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by striking a more dovish stance than expected on both the timing and pace of the anticipated tightening in monetary policy. While the zloty and Polish stocks had suffered because of fears of a rise in US interest rates, local bonds have been underpinned by the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) programme. The effects of QE and a brisker economic recovery may temporarily offset the risk of an inconclusive result in the parliamentary election in October. Impacts Investors have yet to price in the risk of a hung parliament in Poland following October's election. The vote could lead to the formation of a weak and unstable coalition government. The risk of an unstable coalition is particularly high, given the strong likelihood that PO's share of the vote will decline sharply.

The World Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 9-33
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Subprime Mortgages ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Growth

Defaults on subprime mortgages in the US have triggered jitters in global financial markets over the course of this year, leading to a sharp rise in certain types of risk premia over the summer. The Federal Reserve and the ECB responded by injecting emergency liquidity into money markets, on top of which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. We expect the recent turbulence to be short-lived, and impacts on the real economy will be limited. We continue to expect global growth of 5.2 per cent this year, with a sharper slowdown in the US offset by persistently strong growth in China and a relatively robust outlook for Europe and Japan - despite disappointing outturns for the second quarter of 2007. Global growth is expected to ease to 4.7 per cent in 2008, reflecting more moderate growth in China and Europe. However, as annual global growth has exceeded 4.5 per cent in only nine years since 1970, global prospects continue to look promising. Risks to the outlook include a further rise in risk premia, which could potentially lead to major banking crises.

Further Mexico rate hikes likely in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Wage Increases

Subject Monetary policy moves. Significance The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) increased its target interest rate by 25 basis points, to 7.25%, on December 14, responding to a similar move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the previous day. The hike was the first to be taken under new Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon and pushes the rate to its highest level since March 2009. Impacts Tighter monetary policy will weigh on growth in 2018 and may hit the PRI’s electoral prospects. More expensive credit will hit consumption moderately, as interest rates remain relatively low by historical standards. The possibility of wage increases edging up will feed inflationary expectations.

Any US Fed balance sheet unwinding may be disorderly

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Subject US Federal Reserve policy. Significance The US repurchase agreement (repo) rate, the interest rate on overnight loans backed by Treasury securities to facilitate a range of transactions, suddenly soared above 5% on September 15, 2019. There were immediate effects across financial markets, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) quickly bought up Treasury bills and the repo rate returned to the Fed’s 2.00-2.25% target range. However, concerns linger about whether a spike could recur. The Fed has increased its balance sheet by more than 10% since September but sees this as a temporary adjustment rather than a policy change. Impacts Having narrowed to 3.7 trillion dollars by August 2019, the Fed’s balance sheet could pass its 4.4-trillion-dollar record this year. The Fed will seek to ensure its has enough resources for corporate-tax payment dates but without increasing its holdings indefinitely. Increasing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet could limit the effectiveness of further balance sheet expansion in a future crisis.

Prospects for emerging economies in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
Public Debts

Subject Prospects for emerging economies in 2016. Significance Emerging markets (EMs) face formidable headwinds as their economic fundamentals deteriorate and the US rates 'lift-off' gets closer: China's slowing growth, the commodity sell-off, investment cuts, depreciating currencies and high debt levels, especially dollar-denominated debt. Neither a delay in the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate rise nor the forthcoming quantitative easing (QE) extension by the ECB will provide long-lasting respite amid widening fiscal deficits and rising public debts.

Inflation will worry but not derail financial markets

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is largely unperturbed by rising inflation. Bond markets concur, but some investors fear that this could prove complacent -- and costly. Impacts The price of bitcoin fell by 30% since mid-April to USD20,000, partly due to doubts of whether the token is maturing into a stable asset. US banking stocks have surged by over 70% since the vaccine breakthrough on average; strong first-quarter earnings will fuel further upside. Markets have confidence in the Fed, but investors’ fears of a more sustained increase in prices, and of the Fed falling behind, will rise.

High US government debt does not itself raise risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Deficit Spending ◽  
The Government

Significance Some economists are suggesting that, over the longer term, this could cause financial markets to stop buying US debt and charge prohibitively high rates, and cause the dollar to crash. Other economists argue that more deficit spending could fuel output and so keep relative debt levels in check. Impacts The government retirement trust funds will continue to be major buyers of government debt. In the recovery and beyond, financing the debt could raise private borrowing costs, reduce business investment and slow economic growth. High and rising debt might constrain policymakers in their ability to respond to unforeseen events. A higher debt path that boosts interest rates would give the Federal Reserve more flexibility in implementing monetary policy.

Normalisation threatens Emerging Europe’s bond markets

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Purchases ◽  
Investment Grade

Subject The risks to Emerging Europe’s bond markets from the removal of monetary stimulus. Significance The IMF has warned that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to reduce capital inflows into emerging market (EM) economies. Emerging Europe is particularly vulnerable, thanks to the additional risks posed by the reduction of asset purchases by the ECB. Corporate bonds are most at risk because of the rapid compression in spreads on sub-investment grade debt, at their lowest levels since the financial crisis. Impacts Hawkish signals from central banks and US tax cuts are taking the benchmark ten-year US Treasury yield to its highest level since mid-March. However, dollar weakness will ease some of the strain on EM currencies and local bonds. With low core euro-area inflation reducing pressure to end QE, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2019.

Adoption of yield-curve control could aid US recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Us

Subject Yield-curve control. Significance The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is contemplating yield-curve control (YCC), a policy pursued by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) alongside quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance. A central bank does this by capping the yields on government bonds of a chosen maturity through unlimited bond purchases. This supports the economy by reducing borrowing costs for financial institutions, households and businesses. Impacts By providing transparency over a central bank’s actions, YCC would be likely to reduce the volatility of long-term interest rates. YCC adds to the Fed balance sheet; the Fed will need a credible exit strategy to cut market volatility and the risk of Fed capital losses. A sharp uptick in inflation may put upward pressure on long-term yields, necessitating higher Fed purchases to maintain its targeted peg.

Strong dollar will threaten global gold market

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
Market Outlook

Subject Gold market outlook. Significance The gold price is up only 0.9% since the year started, despite Greece's negotiations with its creditors and resulting stronger demand for safe haven assets, as the dollar's strength and buoyant equity markets weigh on investor appetite for gold. For several years, gold benefited from expectations of negative real interest rates, but the end of the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s quantitative easing programme has eliminated the main macroeconomic argument for investors with dollar-denominated wealth. While there is evidence of the physical metal migrating to Asia, the process has been accompanied by an even stronger demand for dollar assets, undermining any gold price gains. Impacts The London Bullion Market Association has selected ICE benchmark to administer price-setting, which will be based on electronic auctions. China will provide foreign investors with direct access to its gold market. Holders of distressed mining assets will fall prey to companies with easier access to financing, reducing the industry's fragmentation.

Investors may be underpricing more US Fed tightening

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Financial markets. Significance The US stock market has rallied by 11.8% this year, buoyed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) executing a dovish policy reversal in late January. Slower global growth prompted the turnaround, but at the same time, US economic activity still has momentum. Reflecting the uncertainty, a week ago futures investors saw a 20.0% chance of the Fed's next move being a rate cut and a 3.5% chance of a hike by January 2020. Expectations have since shifted, to a 7.0% chance of a cut and a 6.9% chance of a hike, respectively. Impacts The dollar is 1% higher since the Fed turnaround at end-January; much larger concerns about Europe than US activity will keep it rising. Emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds are attracting consistently high inflows, but sharply lower Chinese growth would be contagious. The Brent oil price has risen more than 20% this year, but weaker global growth will limit further gains.

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