The World Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 9-33

Defaults on subprime mortgages in the US have triggered jitters in global financial markets over the course of this year, leading to a sharp rise in certain types of risk premia over the summer. The Federal Reserve and the ECB responded by injecting emergency liquidity into money markets, on top of which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. We expect the recent turbulence to be short-lived, and impacts on the real economy will be limited. We continue to expect global growth of 5.2 per cent this year, with a sharper slowdown in the US offset by persistently strong growth in China and a relatively robust outlook for Europe and Japan - despite disappointing outturns for the second quarter of 2007. Global growth is expected to ease to 4.7 per cent in 2008, reflecting more moderate growth in China and Europe. However, as annual global growth has exceeded 4.5 per cent in only nine years since 1970, global prospects continue to look promising. Risks to the outlook include a further rise in risk premia, which could potentially lead to major banking crises.

Significance Having fallen against the resurgent dollar this year, the zloty has lately been strengthening, since the US Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by striking a more dovish stance than expected on both the timing and pace of the anticipated tightening in monetary policy. While the zloty and Polish stocks had suffered because of fears of a rise in US interest rates, local bonds have been underpinned by the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) programme. The effects of QE and a brisker economic recovery may temporarily offset the risk of an inconclusive result in the parliamentary election in October. Impacts Investors have yet to price in the risk of a hung parliament in Poland following October's election. The vote could lead to the formation of a weak and unstable coalition government. The risk of an unstable coalition is particularly high, given the strong likelihood that PO's share of the vote will decline sharply.


Subject Financial markets. Significance The US stock market has rallied by 11.8% this year, buoyed by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) executing a dovish policy reversal in late January. Slower global growth prompted the turnaround, but at the same time, US economic activity still has momentum. Reflecting the uncertainty, a week ago futures investors saw a 20.0% chance of the Fed's next move being a rate cut and a 3.5% chance of a hike by January 2020. Expectations have since shifted, to a 7.0% chance of a cut and a 6.9% chance of a hike, respectively. Impacts The dollar is 1% higher since the Fed turnaround at end-January; much larger concerns about Europe than US activity will keep it rising. Emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds are attracting consistently high inflows, but sharply lower Chinese growth would be contagious. The Brent oil price has risen more than 20% this year, but weaker global growth will limit further gains.


According to a common recurring analysis approach, most studies have defined the present external and universal internal deficit crisis, as the result of a wrong financial deregulation appearing in most modern financial markets. Speculation pressures, relaxing policies, monitoring over banks capital and bank governance models, seem as paying a widespread role as well. On the contrary, some historical and present new behavioral viewpoints show a uniform result of new general widespread monetary mismanagement attitudes, in a global new monetary perspective. Both Western financial markets and the new European single currency creation are showing same surfacing effects, which are generally large internal national deficits, huge trade imbalances and growing unemployment rates. The general market collapses that occurred up to the last 2008 unexpected monetary disintegration, considered firstly as the logical final effect of deep systematic crisis, as never before interlinked during the the twentieth century, has brought to a confused and contradictory row of financial irrecoverable shocks. Stemming from the monetary dissolution materialized during the First World War and never recovered, but for the short Bretton Woods interlude, the international and most of national payment systems are nowadays in a liquidity, interest rates and severe taxation single trap. My firm belief is that what happened at the end of the last century is not the consequence of some specific well-defined deregulation or mismanagement of financial institutions and markets, neither a structural collapse of some previous deteriorated model, or a cyclical evolving of market tendencies. On the contrary, what surfaced from September 1987 to August 2008 and after, has been as well unfolding up to now as an unavoidable effect of the single monetary secular debasement and unproductive and inefficient macroeconomic policies and the disregard of minor welfare and micro-economic frontiers and boundaries inconsistent in a fast enlarging competitive world. In 2016, the 1987-2008 global financial bubbles, from peripheral defaults or market plunges, has become the “final euro crisis." As well, the 19 countries of the EMS, issuing the single euro currency, apart from symptoms of economic stagnation and useless recurring monetary policies, acknowledged internal and external huge rigid trade unbalances. Some countries have been sliding into deficits for years, while the governing powers of the Eurozone have intervened from emergency to emergency, most deeply in Greece. In the Euro contest, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz (Stiglitz, 2016) has been dismantling the first hour prevailing consensus around, which affected Europe, demolishing the stronghold of austerity, and has been offering a series of discussible plans that could rescue the continent and the related parties from further depression.


Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.


Subject Monetary policy moves. Significance The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) increased its target interest rate by 25 basis points, to 7.25%, on December 14, responding to a similar move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) the previous day. The hike was the first to be taken under new Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon and pushes the rate to its highest level since March 2009. Impacts Tighter monetary policy will weigh on growth in 2018 and may hit the PRI’s electoral prospects. More expensive credit will hit consumption moderately, as interest rates remain relatively low by historical standards. The possibility of wage increases edging up will feed inflationary expectations.


Subject US Federal Reserve policy. Significance The US repurchase agreement (repo) rate, the interest rate on overnight loans backed by Treasury securities to facilitate a range of transactions, suddenly soared above 5% on September 15, 2019. There were immediate effects across financial markets, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) quickly bought up Treasury bills and the repo rate returned to the Fed’s 2.00-2.25% target range. However, concerns linger about whether a spike could recur. The Fed has increased its balance sheet by more than 10% since September but sees this as a temporary adjustment rather than a policy change. Impacts Having narrowed to 3.7 trillion dollars by August 2019, the Fed’s balance sheet could pass its 4.4-trillion-dollar record this year. The Fed will seek to ensure its has enough resources for corporate-tax payment dates but without increasing its holdings indefinitely. Increasing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet could limit the effectiveness of further balance sheet expansion in a future crisis.


Subject Financial markets outlook. Significance The decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 18 to lower its main policy rate while not assuring investors that it will continue to loosen monetary policy is exposing divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and between the Fed and bond markets. The ‘hawkish cut’ came with three dissensions, reflecting the disconnect between the resilient US economy and the deterioration in the global growth outlook. Impacts Cautious investor optimism that a US-China trade truce will be struck is fuelling US equity gains, but a substantial deal seems unlikely. The Brent oil price fell back within days following the drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, but more short spikes are possible. Almost one-third of investment-grade government and corporate bonds are negative yielding; those with zero lifetime coupon are riskiest.


2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.


2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.


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