UK growth prospects limited if productivity steps fail

Significance The budget was the first Conservative-only budget since 1996. Driven by political as much as economic considerations, it aimed at entrenching the Conservatives in the political centre ground, in particular through the introduction of a statutory 'living wage' higher than the current minimum wage. The budget did not give priority to longer-term economic weaknesses, especially low productivity. However, the government is expected to address productivity in a follow-up package of supply-side measures today. Impacts Osborne's combination of welfare cuts with a minimum wage rise aims to increase incentives to work. However, it risks checking employment growth in low-wage industries. Osborne's introduction of the 'living wage' has discomforted the main opposition Labour Party. The two-part budget-plus-productivity-plan is a public showing for the important tandem of Osborne and new Business Secretary Sajid Javid. Any fresh Greece-related euro-area slowdown would hit UK export growth, stoking eurosceptic demands for weaker trade ties with the EU.

Subject Growth prospects. Significance Growth has been driven by a few high-performing sectors, such as manufacturing (especially automotive and IT). There are now prospects for accelerating convergence with the EU. Marked inequalities between sectors and regions remain. Impacts Romania is becoming an attractive destination for foreign investment in higher-value-added activities. Skills shortages are likely to increase, requiring intervention in education and migration policy. There is increased pressure on the government to provide leadership and address structural issues.


Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.


Significance After accentuated rule-of-law erosion during 2017-19, the new government encouraged hopes that such violations would become a thing of the past. However, last month, the government sacked the ombudsman, while the Constitutional Court declared void a judgement of the EU Court of Justice (CJEU) defending judicial independence. Impacts Recent developments erode hopes that last month’s positive CVM report will lead to Romania’s Schengen zone accession later this year. Failure to replace the ombudsman will not affect the coalition parties electorally, given the politicisation of rule-of-law issues. Subnational courts will be left confused whether to apply the Constitutional Court or the CJEU ruling to legal disciplinary cases.


Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 325-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Lovén Seldén

This article addresses recent developments in the debate on a European minimum wage and tries to shed light on the Swedish standpoint, which from a European perspective might be difficult to comprehend. The article argues that even though the ETUC secretariat has tried to find a balance among the member organisations regarding the EU initiative on a fair minimum wage, it is far from enough from a Swedish and Nordic perspective. Issues such as how to approach collective bargaining, how to think about minimum wages and the role of the government in industrial relations cause problems when unions that operate in relatively diverse institutional contexts try to cooperate. It is therefore likely that the EU minimum wage will continue to be at the core of European trade union discussions in the coming years. At the same time, institutional differences between countries are not the only factors determining union cooperation in Europe. Contextual factors also matter.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-175
Author(s):  
Nidhi Goel ◽  
Pankaj Madan

Purpose Benchmarking is a very important tool to know the gap in your performance and best performance. It is possible to apply benchmarking in a wide variety of area. This paper uses benchmarking for assessing women entrepreneurship. Women entrepreneurship is a symbol of the balanced growth of the society. Financial inclusion schemes offered by the government are aimed to encourage a large number of women of the country to entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of financial inclusion and others factor like family circumstances, benchmarking, entrepreneurial motivation and entrepreneurial intention of women on their decision to take up entrepreneurship as a career choice. Design/methodology/approach This research study is undertaken to understand the relation of financial inclusion schemes on women entrepreneurship and also to develop a cause–effect relationship. Here, financial inclusion effort is an independent variable, whereas women entrepreneurship is a dependent variable. A sample size of 250 women entrepreneur was taken. The sample was selected on the basis of convenience. Out of the total sample, 125 women belonged to the self-help group and 125 women were registered under the RSETI program of lead banks of Haridwar and Dehradun districts of the Uttarakhand state of India. Findings The results of the present study indicate that there is a statistically significant impact of financial inclusion on women entrepreneurship. It provides the platform to the women that help them in establishing a new business. Research limitations/implications Data for present study were collected from two districts of Uttarakhand. In future, data can be collected from different geographical areas of India for generalizing the findings of the study. Practical implications The results of present study indicate that there is a statistically significant impact of financial inclusion on women entrepreneurship. It provides the platform to the women that help them in establishing a new business. For promoting women toward entrepreneurship, the government has launched many schemes. Social implications After the study, the author found that the society will accept the fact that women entrepreneurship is emerging as a dire need for the country. Originality/value The author followed all the guidelines that were concerned about the originality of the paper. This paper is not under review of any journal.


2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 30-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Davidson ◽  
Wei Ding ◽  
Anthony Marshall

Purpose To better understand the challenges and opportunities facing China, the IBM Institute for Business Value in cooperation with Oxford Economics surveyed 1,150 executives from across China. Survey respondents represented a variety of industries and included executives from Chinese corporations, start-up enterprises, the government sector and educational institutions. Design/methodology/approach This report shares the executives’ vision for the Chinese economy, and proposes actions to help spark growth and positive change. Findings The Chinese executives surveyed see the current economic environment in China as encompassing five main challenges – immature services sector, declining domestic consumption growth, lending decisions creating over investment in some sectors, declining export growth and environmental issues impacting economic development. Practical implications The article identifies the six most important ways to accelerate China’s growth according to the executives: Originality/value Despite challenges, Chinese executives are optimistic about the country’s economic growth prospects. In fact, 93 percent of executives believe China will maintain stable to high growth of more than 5 percent over the next five years. And almost a quarter of them believe China will be able to return to its recent very high growth rates in excess of 8 percent.


Significance Debt markets have failed to pressure Argentina to end the impasse with holdouts, with the government arguing that it could not offer them new terms without offering similar concessions to holders of restructured debt. With elections scheduled for October, the current government is likely to kick the problem to its successor, leaving Argentina facing continued litigation in US and UK courts. Impacts The Central Bank has effectively managed drawdowns of dollar reserves, helping the government to maintain its hard line against holdouts. While this policy persists, the country will remain locked out of international capital markets. The severe shortage of dollars will continue, and will continue to dampen growth prospects until resolved.


Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.


Significance The non-party government of former EU Commissioner Dacian Ciolos took office on November 17 after the Ponta government stood down. Much of the previous administration's budget projections have been carried over, but the new draft also raises spending on investment, education and health, widening the projected deficit to 2.95% of 2016 GDP from 1.8% in 2015. Impacts PSD could insist on the budget including a rise in the minimum wage, but the government wants to assess its impact first. Parliamentary parties back the government publicly, but are manoeuvring for advantage with an eye to elections in late 2016. Key economic policies include infrastructure investment, improved administrative standards and tax collection, and absorption of EU funds.


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