UK growth prospects limited if productivity steps fail
Significance The budget was the first Conservative-only budget since 1996. Driven by political as much as economic considerations, it aimed at entrenching the Conservatives in the political centre ground, in particular through the introduction of a statutory 'living wage' higher than the current minimum wage. The budget did not give priority to longer-term economic weaknesses, especially low productivity. However, the government is expected to address productivity in a follow-up package of supply-side measures today. Impacts Osborne's combination of welfare cuts with a minimum wage rise aims to increase incentives to work. However, it risks checking employment growth in low-wage industries. Osborne's introduction of the 'living wage' has discomforted the main opposition Labour Party. The two-part budget-plus-productivity-plan is a public showing for the important tandem of Osborne and new Business Secretary Sajid Javid. Any fresh Greece-related euro-area slowdown would hit UK export growth, stoking eurosceptic demands for weaker trade ties with the EU.