Prospects for the Gulf states in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2016 Significance Oil prices are biting into government revenues and increasing pressure for economic reform. However, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments are prioritising regional policy following the international nuclear deal with Iran.

Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Reform ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
International Standing

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019. Significance The six states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen solid economic improvements in 2018 on the back of higher oil prices, and Bahrain has avoided a debt crisis, with help from its neighbours. However, the region remains deeply divided over policies towards Qatar, Yemen and Iran. The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has shaken Saudi Arabia’s international standing and undermined its core narrative of economic and social reform.

Gulf states set for major spending cutbacks in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Period ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
First Time

Significance This comes as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states begin serious reforms to adapt to a new period of low oil prices. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) led the way in August 2015 by ending fuel subsidies, and Saudi Arabia has just reduced its own. Spending plans are being re-examined and new revenue-raising measures are being discussed seriously for the first time. Impacts Growth will stall in most sectors, particularly those that depend on government spending. Commercial opportunities may arise for companies that can help make efficiency savings or fill capacity gaps. Pressure will grow to end the Yemen war which is a drain on Saudi and UAE finances.

Gulf states’ austerity will hit foreign workers

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Demographic Shift ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Firing Line

Subject GCC austerity squeezing foreign workers. Significance The fall in oil prices has put pressure on expatriate workers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Their jobs and salaries are first in the firing line when governments look to cut costs, their living costs have been rising and they could face new taxes. They also face rising resentment from nationals, who feel swamped by the scale of expat numbers. However, labour laws are slowly improving and a strong dollar has boosted the value of remittances. Impacts Countries that rely on remittances from the Gulf, such as Nepal and the Philippines, may face current account pressures. Opportunities will rise for consultants to fill expertise gaps created by excessive cuts to expatriate professionals in the public sector. If oil dips lower for longer than expected, GCC countries could launch new nationalisation drives. A demographic shift may be underway, as highly paid Western professionals are gradually replaced by cheaper Asian/Arab alternatives.

Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end 2019 Significance In the absence of a Gulf conflict, oil prices will keep steady, boosting the coffers of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The focus on the Iran crisis has taken the sting out of the controversy sparked by the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but investment in Saudi Arabia is staying low and capital flight is continuing. Intra-GCC relations remain strained, with the underlying causes -- the war in Yemen, the blockade of Qatar and difference in strategy towards Iran -- unchanged.

Oman's next sultan will face greater social challenges

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Political System ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Arab Gulf

Subject Challenges for Oman's next sultan. Significance After more than seven months in Germany undergoing medical treatment, Sultan Qaboos Bu Sa'id finally returned to Oman on March 23. Qaboos has ruled the country for 45 years and enjoys enormous personal loyalty among Omanis. However, his successor is likely to face a much rockier time in power -- he will lack Qaboos's legitimacy, but will also need to face up to Oman's worsening economic situation, which will present serious challenges even to a capable new sultan. Impacts Social protests are likely to become more frequent under Qaboos's successor if he fails to tackle economic problems. Despite his weaker position, the next sultan will remain the most powerful actor in the Omani political system. Oman will maintain its distinctive regional policy, maintaining close ties with both Iran and Arab Gulf states.

Gulf states will need Turkey to counter Iran

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Military Support

Subject Relations between the Gulf states and Turkey. Significance After 2011, Turkey and most of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states shared a mutual commitment to removing President Bashar al-Assad from power in Damascus. However, after the defeat of anti-Assad rebel forces in Aleppo in December 2016, Ankara shifted its focus to the prevention of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, seeking an alliance with Moscow. Impacts Turkey and the GCC will still consult closely on Syria, but with an increased focus on diplomacy and less military support for the rebels. Ankara will resist involvement in Yemen, but is likely to emphasise solidarity with the Saudi-led campaign against the Iran-linked Huthis. Turkey’s relationship with Qatar will be especially close, given strong ideological ties between the ruling Al Thani family and Erdogan.

Gulf set for large-scale drawdown of foreign assets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Gulf debt and sovereign wealth funds. Significance After more than a decade of growing oil revenues and rapidly increased spending, the collapse in oil prices since autumn 2014 has transformed the fiscal environment for Gulf oil monarchies. This year will be the first since the early 2000s that most of them incur deficits. Their options for managing them include spending cuts, raising revenue, debt issuance and a drawdown of international reserves. Impacts Saudi Arabia's deep reserves will allow continued high spending for at least half a decade. Bahrain has the fewest liquid assets and faces the most brutal fiscal adjustment, followed by Oman. State-driven economic diversification efforts are likely to slow due to reduced capital spending, including on investment in new sectors. Gulf states' chequebook diplomacy in countries like Lebanon or Egypt will become increasingly less generous. The larger SWFs' tightening focus on risk management leaves them better positioned to manage funding challenges and withdrawal risk.

Solar power set for expansion in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Natural Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Set ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
The World

Subject Solar power in the Gulf. Significance Favourable natural conditions and growing gas shortages make the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc one of the most attractive and lowest-cost solar markets in the world. Impacts Lower oil prices will reduce funding and incentives for solar projects, but recent reductions in costs make solar power economically viable. To win future bids, solar firms will require a combination of local knowledge and global best practice. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have strong prospects of evolving into a regional hub for solar business and installations. Due to low capacity and a small starting base solar power may displace only 1-3% of the power sector's fuel consumption by the early 2020s. Another barrier to growth will be the lack of coherent government policy frameworks, and ongoing electricity subsidies.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

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