Solar power set for expansion in the Gulf

Subject Solar power in the Gulf. Significance Favourable natural conditions and growing gas shortages make the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc one of the most attractive and lowest-cost solar markets in the world. Impacts Lower oil prices will reduce funding and incentives for solar projects, but recent reductions in costs make solar power economically viable. To win future bids, solar firms will require a combination of local knowledge and global best practice. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have strong prospects of evolving into a regional hub for solar business and installations. Due to low capacity and a small starting base solar power may displace only 1-3% of the power sector's fuel consumption by the early 2020s. Another barrier to growth will be the lack of coherent government policy frameworks, and ongoing electricity subsidies.

Subject 'Winners' and 'losers' from the recent collapse in oil prices. Significance The recent precipitate fall in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude price falling below 50 dollars/barrel in January (less than half its September 2014 level), is clearly having a major impact around the world. In Latin America, which includes both oil importing and exporting countries, there will be winners and losers from this development, although in some cases the oil price impact is likely to prove more nuanced. Impacts Plunging oil prices are compounding doubts surrounding the regional hydrocarbons sector. The effect on investment decisions will have a longer-term impact on the region. The development of alternative energies in Latin America will be hit by the lower prices.


Significance The operation will take place under a government subsidy scheme that pays 7.50 dollars per barrel to exporters as long as the world oil price remains below 47.50 dollars. YPF is in the process of redefining its investment strategy which, since its renationalisation in 2012, has focused on the development of unconventional hydrocarbons resources. Impacts Despite being Latin America's largest unconventional hydrocarbons producer, YPF will struggle to improve its competitiveness. The recent devaluation will provide only limited benefits in this respect. High domestic oil prices and the sharp tariff increase are unpopular and may prove unsustainable.


Significance Low global oil prices are weighing heavily on the profitability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sector. Moody's Investors Service in March downgraded 26 GCC banks. This raises questions about the future of retail banking in the region. Impacts GCC governments' commitment to developing financial hubs will support retail banking. However, lack of economic integration in the region will prevent regional Gulf banks from benefitting from economies of scale. Fragmentation in the retail market means that each country will be dominated increasingly by their largest banks.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2016 Significance Oil prices are biting into government revenues and increasing pressure for economic reform. However, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments are prioritising regional policy following the international nuclear deal with Iran.


Significance The sultan this month paid his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, establishing institutions for ongoing cooperation. Under the previous ruler, Muscat was wary of Riyadh’s dominant influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). However, both the regional environment and Oman’s economic situation are now in a state of flux. Impacts New Saudi investment in Oman would likely focus on the tourism and industrial sectors. Higher oil prices will provide only a temporary reprieve for Muscat’s structural economic problems. Omani interactions with the United Arab Emirates could become more fraught.


Significance Protests have been mostly concentrated at In Salah, where drilling for exploration of shale gas began on December 27, although solidarity protests have taken place elsewhere too. Algeria has the third-largest estimated shale gas reserves in the world, but protesters fear environmental damage, specifically of the country's water reserves, and that citizens will not enjoy the benefits of the resource's exploitation. Despite assurances by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal, protests have persisted. Impacts If oil prices stay low or fall further, the regime may be forced into political change more quickly than it wishes. Potential successors to Bouteflika include Prime Minister Abdel Malek Sellal, the Minister of the Interior Tayeb Belaiz, or Ahmed Ouyahia. If Bouteflika's brother, Sa'id, wields effective power for a further 2-3 years, his credibility as a candidate would be enhanced.


Significance His statement contrasts with broader regional trends. The six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been overbanked for many years, but buoyant economies provided a rising tide of growth opportunities. However, a prolonged period of low oil prices and weaker government finances is tightening liquidity and increasing bad debts. This is driving a degree of consolidation in the sector. Impacts Consolidation rumours will drive rallies in banking shares. Larger banks will facilitate financing of major infrastructure projects. Governments will boost domestic liquidity by borrowing abroad.


Significance The crisis between Doha and its rivals in the Arab world, led by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, has escalated further after yesterday's intervention by US President Donald Trump, who took credit for the move against Qatar's alleged terrorist financing. Six countries in the region have cut diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar. Impacts Whatever the resolution, the damage to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the idea of Gulf unity will be profound. There will be a knock-on impact on other regional conflicts in which Qatar is involved, such as Syria, Libya and Yemen. A sustained crisis would create upward pressure on oil prices, as traders worry about unpredictable developments. Qatar's gas exports through the Dolphin pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains are unlikely to be disrupted.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states in 2019. Significance The six states in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen solid economic improvements in 2018 on the back of higher oil prices, and Bahrain has avoided a debt crisis, with help from its neighbours. However, the region remains deeply divided over policies towards Qatar, Yemen and Iran. The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has shaken Saudi Arabia’s international standing and undermined its core narrative of economic and social reform.


2015 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 361-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Karcher ◽  
Roland Jochem

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify main success factors for the effective implementation, operation and certification of an energy management system (EnMS) in accordance with ISO 50001, which represents the fastest growing standard for management systems in the world (International Organization for Standardization, 2013). Design/methodology/approach – Due to rising energy costs, increasing global competitive pressure and the demand for environmentally friendly products companies all over the world consider the implementation of an EnMS to meet future challenges. For that reason a survey (Jochem et al., 2013) among already certified German companies has been conducted focussing on organizational, teambuilding and technical aspects. Findings – Results indicate that EnMSs are most commonly built on already existing management structures and therefore staff organization is crucial for the success of the project. Still, monetary aspects such as energy related cost savings seem to be the decisive criterion for the operation of an EnMS. Regarding teambuilding aspects specific technical expertise is required which leads to cross-functional teams focussing on the field of production. In addition key technical and administrative measures for an effective EnMS were identified. Originality/value – The study provides best practice knowledge and gives interested companies the advantage to benefit from both the positive experiences of the participants as well as to prevent potential contra productive activities during the implementation, certification and operation of an EnMS.


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