US action against jihadists rests on politics, not law

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Special Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Political Debates ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
Party Elites

Significance Senate Republicans have reopened the legal debate over the power of AUMFs and the ability of presidents to send forces anywhere at any time unilaterally. The debate has short-term implications for President Barack Obama's campaign against ISG, and also raises a number of constitutional issues that will shape the political debates surrounding Washington's use of military force against non-state actors. Impacts US anti-ISG activities in Libya will be limited to low-intensity drone attacks, airstrikes and special forces operations. Republican voters supporting Donald Trump will prove less supportive of intervention than party elites. Obama may accept a regime victory in the Syrian civil war to avoid domestic pressure for further US involvement.

US Democratic resurgence may come in 2018 post-Alabama

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Economic ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
New Infrastructure

Significance Moore’s candidacy was problematic, so his loss was always possible. However, Republican US President Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 percentage points (pp) over his Democratic rival in 2016, and traditionally Alabama is considered particularly inelastic in its partisan split -- a Democrat had not won election to the Senate from Alabama this century. Impacts Moore may push for a recount of the vote; postal votes can be accepted up to seven days after the election. New infrastructure would have positive economic effects, but these benefits (and the political ones) would take time coming. If Republican congressmen feel politically threatened, talk of impeaching Trump might intensify.

London will diverge from the EU on foreign policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK foreign policy. Significance Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc. Impacts The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010. The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia.  The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.

Prospects for African politics to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
African Politics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for African politics to end-2019. Significance The political outlook is mixed across much of the continent. Changes underway in some countries offer the prospect of potentially significant longer-term reform, but the short-term prognosis is far less promising.

Iran regional policy will bolster IRGC political power

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.

Belarus's healthcare will be key political asset

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recession ◽  
The Political ◽  
Healthcare Financing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
Constitutional Right ◽  
Satisfactory State ◽  
Political Leverage

Significance For Belarusian citizens, access to healthcare is a constitutional right. Consequently, any attempted reforms that would involve a major shift to commercialisation will have serious political consequences. Impacts The generally satisfactory state of the healthcare system means that the opposition will be unable to use it for political leverage. Should Belarus's economic recession force the authorities to limit healthcare financing, the political consequences will be very serious. Budgetary spending on healthcare will remain high in the short term and is likely to grow as Lukashenka seeks to avoid public discontent.

Peru cabinet moves may see short-term political truce

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Members ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Skills ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance In selecting new members of his ministerial team, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has sought to appease the pro-Fujimori opposition in Congress without giving them a role in government. Whether or not a lasting rapport can be achieved will depend on the political skills of the new premier, Mercedes Araoz. Impacts The new cabinet will find it difficult to shake off the problems that afflicted its predecessor. Growth this year and next is likely to be subdued. Investment will only pick up if there is a sustained increase in commodity prices.

US protectionism would face multiple checks post-Obama

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flight To Quality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Chinese Industry ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Demographic Shifts

Significance Citing the US trade deficit as a sign of an "economic war" waged by China, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made protectionist appeals to attract supporters from economically disaffected communities ahead of the November 8 election. This raises questions about the political viability of calls for a revised approach to US trade policy by several political figures. Impacts Beijing's explicit and implicit subsidies to support Chinese industry will irk US policymakers. Broader demographic shifts may mute the electoral benefits for Trump of trade-sceptical voters in 'swing states'. 'Flight-to-quality' strengthening of the dollar after the 'Brexit' referendum will harm US exporters.

Uruguay's ruling party may face defeat next year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government ◽  
Difficult Challenge ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Negative Appraisals ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook. Significance GDP expanded by 2.7% in 2017 and is projected to grow by some 3.0% this year. However, public opinion is becoming increasingly negative and uncertain over future economic prospects. This echoes President Tabare Vazquez’s falling approval ratings, which have reached the lowest point since the Frente Amplio (FA) came to government in 2005. At the start of the fourth year of his five-year term, Vazquez faces the difficult challenge of improving his government’s popular standing. Impacts The government is facing its worst moment to date, and there are few short-term prospects for any improvement. Vazquez may not make new policy announcements this year, clinging instead to policies already the subject of negative appraisals. The FA looks increasingly likely to lose the presidency in next year’s elections.

Currency controls will not curb crisis in Argentina

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Government

Significance The surprisingly ample victory of opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez over President Mauricio Macri in the August 11 presidential primaries triggered a currency run and a sharp fall in international reserves and led the government to announce a “voluntary reprofiling” of short-term debt. The announcement was interpreted as a default, worsening investor expectations. The debt crisis puts the political transition at stake, with nearly two months before the general election and over three months until a new administration takes office in December. Impacts Following a new debt crisis, capital markets will be closed, forcing a sharper fiscal adjustment. The financial crisis will delay any economic rebound and worsen social indicators. The fragile fiscal situation will inhibit implementation of any ‘populist’ measures by the new government. The structural reform agenda will make some progress, though more slowly than expected.

Argentina's poverty woes have no short-term solution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Deficit

Subject The political and election climate. Significance The 2019 budget approved in November envisaged a GDP contraction of 0.5%, inflation of 23% and a zero primary deficit for this year. At the end of the first quarter, these targets already seem unrealistic, with current estimates of at least a 1.3% contraction, inflation of 32-40% and a deficit in a context of pre-election spending, rising poverty and a slumping economy. Impacts Volatility may increase post-election as a new four-year term looms without rapid and evident growth. The Congress that emerges from the elections will be divided. Investment even in energy sectors may prove elusive amid doubts over tax and export regimes.

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