Rhythm and timing as vulnerabilities in neurodevelopmental disorders

Millions of children are impacted by neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), which unfold early in life, have varying genetic etiologies and can involve a variety of specific or generalized impairments in social, cognitive and motor functioning requiring potentially lifelong specialized supports. While specific disorders vary in their domain of primary deficit (e.g. autism spectrum disorder (social), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (attention), developmental coordination disorder (motor) and developmental language disorder (language)), comorbidities between NDDs are common. Intriguingly, many NDDs are associated with difficulties in skills related to rhythm, timing and synchrony though specific profiles of rhythm/timing impairments vary across disorders. Impairments in rhythm/timing may instantiate vulnerabilities for a variety of NDDs and may contribute to both the primary symptoms of each disorder as well as the high levels of comorbidities across disorders. Drawing upon genetic, neural, behavioural and interpersonal constructs across disorders, we consider how disrupted rhythm and timing skills early in life may contribute to atypical developmental cascades that involve overlapping symptoms within the context of a disorder's primary deficits. Consideration of the developmental context, as well as common and unique aspects of the phenotypes of different NDDs, will inform experimental designs to test this hypothesis including via potential mechanistic intervention approaches. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Synchrony and rhythm interaction: from the brain to behavioural ecology’.

Assessing fiscal sustainability in Egypt: a comparative study

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the fiscal sustainability in Egypt during the period 1990–2018 using deficit accounts (DA) approach. It also tries to investigate the possibility of applying generational accounts (GA) in Egypt as a new approach to assess fiscal sustainability.Design/methodology/approachThis paper tries to assess fiscal sustainability in Egypt during 1990–2018 using DA and GA approaches. DA approach includes primary deficit indicator, tax gap indicator, augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test for debt/GDP ratio and Johansen co-integration test between government revenues and expenditures. However, concerning the possibility of applying GA in Egypt, field study form was designed including specific questions to academic and executive economic experts to investigate if it is possible to apply GA in Egypt.FindingsThe empirical findings of the field study indicate that Egypt witnessed fiscal sustainability during the period 1990–2018 using DA. On the other hand, there are various obstacles, including administrative, technical, legal and political obstacles which hinder Egypt from applying GA to assess fiscal sustainability.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper assesses fiscal sustainability in Egypt using DA for a longer and updated time series within 1990–2018. In addition, it is the first paper to examine the possibility of assessing fiscal sustainability using GA approach in Egypt.

Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened Brazil’s longstanding vulnerabilities of low potential growth, high income inequality, and weak fiscal position. While the authorities mounted a rapid and effective response to support the economy and protect the poor and vulnerable, the virus outbreak is yet to be brought under control. Outlook and Risks. Real GDP is projected to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020 followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021. With weak domestic demand, inflation is likely to end 2020 substantially below target. Debt is projected to jump to 100 percent of GDP, due to a 10.6 percentage point deterioration in the primary deficit in 2020, and continue to rise over the next five years. The high level of debt exposes Brazil to confidence shocks. Securing congressional passage of structural reforms to raise potential growth remains challenging.

Economic orthodoxy will face challenges in Argentina

Significance The 2021 budget implies a significant fiscal adjustment, with the primary deficit falling from 7-8% of GDP in 2020 to 4.5% in 2021, mainly due to the end of the pandemic relief package, a reduction of energy and transport subsidies and slower pension increases. These measures are in line with recent moves towards more orthodox economic policies. Impacts More prudent policies could ease fears of populism, but investors will remain reluctant to increase their risk exposure. Given high poverty rates, austerity may drive social unrest, affecting the government’s prospects in 2021 mid-term ballots. While fiscal adjustment and structural reforms could aid medium-term sustained economic growth, they will cut short-term growth.

Estimating the Fiscal Reaction Function for Namibia

This paper estimates the fiscal reaction function for Namibia with the aim of establishing how the Government of Namibia responds to changes in debt levels. The VECM and the ARDL models were adopted to explore the reactions between the two variables. Both the VECM and ARDL confirmed the long-run relationship between the variables and showed that government increases its primary balance (i.e. reduce its primary deficit) by 0.07 percent and 0.31 percent, respectively, for every 1 percentage increase in debt levels. On one end, the results from VECM indicated that fiscal policy in Namibia is pro-cyclical, reflected in a positive estimated effect of the output gap on the primary balance. On the other end, the ARDL model indicated an insignificant relationship between the output gap and the primary balance. The debt targeting analysis performed provides evidence that it is not enough to only reduce the primary deficit for fiscal sustainability. Instead, it is important to grow the economy and improve the ability of debt repayment so that debt accumulation declines. Thus, the paper recommends that Namibia needs not only a positive, but also a strong economic growth if it is to make significant impacts on the debt level and guarantee both debt and fiscal sustainability.

Argentina's 2021 budget bill highlights uncertainties

Significance The bill forecasts a fall in the primary deficit next year, mainly due to an expected drop in COVID-19-related welfare payments. The government also aims to boost public works to fuel growth and thus boost its support in the October 2021 mid-term elections. With global investors still reluctant to lend, Central Bank transfers will remain the main source of financing. Impacts If growth is weaker than expected, hoped-for reductions in social aid spending will prove impossible. Reliance on Central Bank transfers to finance the deficit will put pressure on prices, undermining the goal of lower inflation. Financial constraints will hinder the government’s ability to implement expansionary policies.

Latent cause inference during extinction learning in trauma-exposed individuals with and without PTSD

Problems in learning that sights, sounds, or situations that were once associated with danger have become safe (extinction learning) may explain why some individuals suffer prolonged psychological distress following traumatic experiences. Although simple associative learning models have been unable to provide a convincing account of how and why this learning fails, it has recently been proposed that this may be explained by individual differences in beliefs about the causal structure of the environment. Here, we tested two competing hypotheses as to how differences in causal inference might be related to trauma-related psychopathology, using extinction learning data collected from clinically well-characterized individuals with varying degrees of post-traumatic stress (N=56). Latent cause modelling revealed that individuals with more severe PTSD were more likely to assign observations from conditioning and extinction stages to a single underlying cause. Specifically, multivariate analysis incorporating multiple PTSD and depression symptom dimensions revealed a negative relationship between tendency to infer multiple causes were active in the environment and re-experiencing symptom severity. We interpret these results as providing evidence of a primary deficit in discriminative learning in participants with more severe PTSD re-experiencing symptoms. Specifically, in these individuals, a greater tendency to attribute all stimulus configurations to the same underlying cause resulted in greater uncertainty about stimulus-outcome associations, and impeded learning both that certain stimuli were safe, and that certain stimuli were no longer dangerous. Better understanding of the role of causal inference in trauma-related psychopathology may have relevance for the refinement of cognitive therapies for these disorders.

Marginal Income Tax Rates, Economic Growth, and Primary Fiscal Deficits

Economic theory suggests that variations in marginal tax rates are more important for consumption and investment decisions than the average rates commonly studied. This article analyzes the aggregate implications of the statutory tax code, using a new times series on annual marginal tax rates, which decomposes the federal income tax code into its “level” and “progressive” (or spread) components. Robust results from a vector autoregression model show that increasing the spread of the marginal income tax rates has a positive impact on private spending growth, leading to an indirect, negative impact on the primary deficit ratio. Contrary to the political narrative, our findings suggest that the general level of these tax rates does not significantly impact growth rates or the primary deficit ratio.

Low interest rates will ease Brazil's primary deficit

Headline BRAZIL: Low interest rates will ease primary deficit

Cálculo de los componentes estructurales del déficit público español (1992-2015)

As the Spanish economy slid into recession during 2009, the debate over the role of the public deficit came into the spotlight once again. However, there has been little emphasis on determining the causes and the nature of the imbalances in the government’s accounts. We study the structure of aggregate public budgets and use regression analysis to address these two issues. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our results show that budget’s stability was transitory and that, in reality, an average primary deficit of 3,30% of GDP prevailed throughout the years between 1992 and 2015.