North Korea sanctions usher in new era of tension

Significance This signalled defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2270, passed unanimously on March 2, which condemns Pyongyang's nuclear test on January 6 and its satellite launch (using ballistic missile technology) on February 7, imposes the toughest sanctions yet on the Kim regime. Impacts Whether the new sanctions are more effective than previous ones will take time to assess, and depends on interpretation and implementation. Pyongyang's strategic direction may be clarified once the ruling party holds its first Congress for 35 years in May. With China-North Korea ties icy, Russia will give Kim a degree of diplomatic cover. South Korea's new hard line is bipartisan; even most liberals no longer support a 'sunshine' policy. Any eventual return to diplomacy may have to await new leaders in Washington in 2017 and Seoul from February 2018.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-30
Author(s):  
Nuraisah Nuraisah ◽  
Rika Erawaty

Since 2006 to 2017 the Security Council has passed a resolution on North Korea's nuclear test act. Article 25 of the UN Charter states that Members of the United Nations agree to accept and implement the decisions of the Security Council in accordance with this Charter. North Korea as a UN member state that obtained the UN Security Council Resolution is obliged to implement the sanctions resolution. However, the sanctions contained in the resolution did not make North Korea stop its nuclear program and it shows North Korea's noncompliance with UN Security Council resolutions. Implications accompanying any denial by North Korea against the UN Security Council resolution which in general affects four fields, namely the fields of economy, politics, defense and international cooperation. In addition to non-military sanctions, the Security Council under chapter VII Article 42 of the UN Charter can impose military sanctions where possible, the Security Council can also impose sanctions through the UN General Assembly on its recommendation to suspend the rights of UN membership) and expulsion of a country from UN membership).


Subject The impact of sanctions on North Korea's economy. Significance Successive UN Security Council resolutions over the past year impose the toughest sanctions North Korea has ever faced. If implemented thoroughly, the new sanctions will have much greater impact than earlier measures. The result will be to increase political risk in North-east Asia in the medium term (2018-20). Impacts North Korea's leadership will not even consider denuclearisation, seeing this as tantamount to collective suicide. The threat of domestic instability will push the elite to become more repressive at home. If political collapse or war looked imminent, China would switch back to quietly undermining the sanctions regime.


Significance No warning was given to shipping. With rare speed, owing to Chinese fury at the timing of this during the G20 summit in Hangzhou, the next day the UN Security Council (UNSC) condemned Pyongyang's "flagrant disregard" of past UNSC resolutions. With no sign that Kim Jong-un will heed this latest UN rebuke any more than previous ones, the current Western and global hard line towards North Korea is having no visible impact. Impacts North-South relations will probably remain abysmal till then, though opportunistic U-turns by either Korea cannot be entirely ruled out. Chinese enforcement of sanctions will remain patchy, especially given Beijing's hostility to US missile deployment in South Korea. Regular deployment of SLBMs by Pyongyang would be a game-changer for the region. South Korean predictions of regime collapse are premature.


Significance North Korea the same day pledged a “decisive act of justice” to avenge “a hundred thousand-fold” the “heinous crime” of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions approved unanimously on August 5, which imposed stringent new curbs on North Korea’s exports. Impacts Pyongyang's ever-belligerent rhetoric should not be taken literally. As distinct from provocative WMD tests, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to launch a major attack, knowing it would be suicidal. Seoul and Beijing will strive for renewed diplomacy. South Korea and Japan would bear the brunt of any actual hostilities. Unilateral US action that provoked Pyongyang into striking South Korea or Japan would probably damage these alliances irreparably.


Significance Russia denies breaking any rules but is keen to move towards sanctions relaxation. This would allow it to ramp up economic ties with North Korea through 'trilateral cooperation' with South Korea. It sees opportunities for energy exports and a trade route linking the Korean peninsula with Europe. Impacts Moscow's wider goal is to strengthen its geopolitical position, currently overshadowed by Washington and Beijing. Russian state-linked and private traders will continue to face US penalties for breaking sanctions imposed on North Korea. Moscow appears to be winding down the number of North Korean guest workers as required by the UN Security Council.


Asian Survey ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-127
Author(s):  
Charles K. Armstrong

Kim Jong Un further consolidated his leadership position at the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party in May, the first congress since 1980. Pyongyang conducted two nuclear tests and made advances in missile delivery, eliciting strong sanctions resolutions from the UN Security Council, first in March and again in November.


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