Moscow will capitalise on good ties with both Koreas

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Trade Route ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance Russia denies breaking any rules but is keen to move towards sanctions relaxation. This would allow it to ramp up economic ties with North Korea through 'trilateral cooperation' with South Korea. It sees opportunities for energy exports and a trade route linking the Korean peninsula with Europe. Impacts Moscow's wider goal is to strengthen its geopolitical position, currently overshadowed by Washington and Beijing. Russian state-linked and private traders will continue to face US penalties for breaking sanctions imposed on North Korea. Moscow appears to be winding down the number of North Korean guest workers as required by the UN Security Council.

North Korea missile development will proceed apace

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Game Changer

Significance No warning was given to shipping. With rare speed, owing to Chinese fury at the timing of this during the G20 summit in Hangzhou, the next day the UN Security Council (UNSC) condemned Pyongyang's "flagrant disregard" of past UNSC resolutions. With no sign that Kim Jong-un will heed this latest UN rebuke any more than previous ones, the current Western and global hard line towards North Korea is having no visible impact. Impacts North-South relations will probably remain abysmal till then, though opportunistic U-turns by either Korea cannot be entirely ruled out. Chinese enforcement of sanctions will remain patchy, especially given Beijing's hostility to US missile deployment in South Korea. Regular deployment of SLBMs by Pyongyang would be a game-changer for the region. South Korean predictions of regime collapse are premature.

Risk of North Korea war will grow if trends continue

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance North Korea the same day pledged a “decisive act of justice” to avenge “a hundred thousand-fold” the “heinous crime” of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions approved unanimously on August 5, which imposed stringent new curbs on North Korea’s exports. Impacts Pyongyang's ever-belligerent rhetoric should not be taken literally. As distinct from provocative WMD tests, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to launch a major attack, knowing it would be suicidal. Seoul and Beijing will strive for renewed diplomacy. South Korea and Japan would bear the brunt of any actual hostilities. Unilateral US action that provoked Pyongyang into striking South Korea or Japan would probably damage these alliances irreparably.

Tide turns in favour of South Korea’s conservatives

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type

Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.

Seoul and Tokyo will grow further apart

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Psychological Issues ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Japan-South Korea relations. Significance Japan-South Korea relations have global significance. The two are East Asia’s largest and second-largest advanced economies and play a vital role in the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, including in the creation of large free trade areas. Their relationship also affects security issues related to North Korea. Impacts The shared threat from North Korea and the alliances both governments have with Washington will force a degree of cooperation. Intractable political and psychological issues related to history will impede cooperation indefinitely. Bilateral economic ties will remain large-scale and important for both sides, but gradually become less so.

North Korea heads for economic crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
North East ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Domestic Instability ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of sanctions on North Korea's economy. Significance Successive UN Security Council resolutions over the past year impose the toughest sanctions North Korea has ever faced. If implemented thoroughly, the new sanctions will have much greater impact than earlier measures. The result will be to increase political risk in North-east Asia in the medium term (2018-20). Impacts North Korea's leadership will not even consider denuclearisation, seeing this as tantamount to collective suicide. The threat of domestic instability will push the elite to become more repressive at home. If political collapse or war looked imminent, China would switch back to quietly undermining the sanctions regime.

North Korea sanctions usher in new era of tension

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Nuclear Test ◽  
Security Council Resolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Eventual Return ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance This signalled defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2270, passed unanimously on March 2, which condemns Pyongyang's nuclear test on January 6 and its satellite launch (using ballistic missile technology) on February 7, imposes the toughest sanctions yet on the Kim regime. Impacts Whether the new sanctions are more effective than previous ones will take time to assess, and depends on interpretation and implementation. Pyongyang's strategic direction may be clarified once the ruling party holds its first Congress for 35 years in May. With China-North Korea ties icy, Russia will give Kim a degree of diplomatic cover. South Korea's new hard line is bipartisan; even most liberals no longer support a 'sunshine' policy. Any eventual return to diplomacy may have to await new leaders in Washington in 2017 and Seoul from February 2018.

Historic Meeting in Singapore Marks a Change in Relations Between the United States and North Korea and Generates a North Korean Commitment to Work Toward Denuclearization

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (4) ◽  
pp. 763-770
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Service Members ◽  
Summit Meeting ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
First Time

North Korea's Chairman, Kim Jong Un, agreed to work toward the Korean peninsula's denuclearization at a Singapore summit meeting with President Trump on June 12, 2018. The encounter marked the first time in history that the president of the United States and the leader of North Korea have met in person. It came after an intense year and a half of interactions between the two countries, including the exchange of nuclear-laced military threats, the imposition of new sanctions by the United States and the UN Security Council, and, eventually, a touch of détente. Since the meeting occurred, North Korea has taken several steps consistent with commitments it made, including returning remains said to be those of American service members, refraining from missile launches, and beginning to dismantle its testing facilities. Also since the meeting occurred, the United States has suspended its usual joint military exercises with South Korea, consistent with a statement made by Trump at the summit, while leaving in place existing sanctions against North Korea.

North Korea in 2016

Asian Survey ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-127
Author(s):  
Charles K. Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Leadership Position ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Nuclear Tests

Kim Jong Un further consolidated his leadership position at the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party in May, the first congress since 1980. Pyongyang conducted two nuclear tests and made advances in missile delivery, eliciting strong sanctions resolutions from the UN Security Council, first in March and again in November.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

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