Anti-Modi front would need Congress support to succeed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
United Front

Significance Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had mixed results in recent state elections; it notably failed to displace Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) from power in the key battleground of West Bengal. The main opposition Congress party’s poll performance was, as expected, underwhelming. Impacts The 2022 Uttar Pradesh state poll will be the immediate focus for electoral strategists in the BJP and other locally influential parties. Congress will struggle to overcome infighting over its presidency even as it asserts its credentials to lead a broad anti-Modi alliance. Modi’s government may open corruption cases against key opposition leaders in a bid to distract them from efforts to form a united front.

Election results give Modi’s rivals some hope

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Election Results

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retained a majority in Assam and won in Puducherry. It fared less well elsewhere: the BJP failed to gain power in West Bengal, despite campaigning especially hard there. Impacts Violence in West Bengal involving rival supporters will likely continue for several more weeks. BJP strategists will now focus on the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, determined to ensure the party holds power in that key state. Congress, India’s main opposition party, faces a deepening crisis of confidence after its underwhelming poll performance.

India will see anti-Modi Federal Front in early 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 314 seats in the 545-member parliamentary lower house. Congress, which leads the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has 48 seats, short of the 10% minimum required for it to nominate the leader of the opposition. Regionally influential politicians such as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and former Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati have called for a broad anti-BJP alliance ahead of the general election due early next year. Impacts Modi’s personality will be a critical factor in election campaigning. The opposition will try to undermine Modi by highlighting the jobless growth and religious discord under BJP rule. The BJP and its opponents will try to project themselves as the champions of farmers in a bid to increase their rural support.

India's state polls hold key to Modi's reform agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Strong Contender ◽  
Union Territory ◽  
Significant Bearing

Subject Forthcoming state elections. Significance Legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala states, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, will be held between April 4 and May 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a strong contender only in Assam. The overall results will have a significant bearing on his economic reform agenda. Impacts A communal campaign by the BJP in West Bengal would prevent an alliance with the TMC. The GST and land reform bills will not pass until parliamentary gridlock ends. Poor showing in forthcoming polls will dampen investor confidence in Modi.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

Modi’s party will not yet think of separate Gorkhaland

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tea Industry ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject The movement to create a separate Gorkhaland out of West Bengal state. Significance After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government last month abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status, and divided the state into two union territories, speculation grew that the Modi administration might try to hive off West Bengal state’s Gorkhaland region, currently administered by a semi-autonomous Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to strengthen its position in West Bengal, currently governed by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts Agitation in Gorkhaland could set back tourism, a major source of income for the area, and India’s tea industry, a major employer there. The alleged exclusion of 100,000 Gorkhas from Assam state’s National Register of Citizens may hurt the BJP’s image in northern West Bengal. Gorkha politicians who have turned to the BJP may desert the party if higher-level officials continue to prevaricate over Gorkhaland.

Modi’s party will pay to hold power in Maharashtra

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
General Election ◽  
Small Farmers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Shiv Sena

Subject Pressure on the BJP to offer financial concessions to Maratha farmers. Significance A coalition of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the local Shiv Sena has governed in Maharashtra since 2014. The BJP seeks to consolidate its status as the champion of the state’s small farmers, but this may require submission to expensive demands. Impacts Mumbai may see further large protests by members of the Maratha caste if their demands are not met. Other states besides Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh (UP) may promise loan waivers to farmers. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) may join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance ahead of the 2019 general election.

Indian state polls modestly boost Modi's reform plan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Indian State ◽  
A Minor

Significance They represent a minor triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), after several difficult months, and promise to restore political momentum to his government. Yet progress is still likely to be slow. Impacts Uttar Pradesh polls will test whether the BJP's electoral campaign can avoid communal polarisation and conflict. Infrastructure investment in Assam is likely to rise, advancing Indian ambitions to improve connectivity with South-east Asia. Ties with Bangladesh will suffer as the new Assam government delivers on promises made to anti-Muslim ethic groups.

India’s ruling party will resist creating new states

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Tea Industry ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
New States ◽  
Hindi Language ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Agitations in India to create new states. Significance Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month negotiated an end to a 104-day protest by the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), which had sought the excision of a separate Gorkhaland from West Bengal state. India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has historically been a strong advocate of state-led development and even new states, but its willingness to redraw the map of India is declining. Impacts Darjeeling’s tea industry may continue to suffer losses in the short term but will recover thereafter. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) should improve states’ fiscal balances in the long term. The BJP may step up efforts to promote the Hindi language across India.

Prospects for India to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India to end-2017. Significance The expected economic scenario over the second half of 2017 is low inflation and a rebound of GDP growth from a slowdown in the first half. Following the triumph of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Uttar Pradesh state elections in March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can expect a relatively quiet political season until year-end.

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