Putin will stand back from Russia's Duma polls

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The Russian president's options for winning September elections. Significance The September 2016 elections to Russia's parliament, the State Duma, are the first to coincide with a severe economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The authorities are determined to prevent social discontent escalating into the kind of protests seen after the last polls in December 2011, which unsettled Putin's plans for re-election in March 2012. Popular support for Putin remains high, and 'loyal opposition' parties such as the Communists are blaming economic problems on Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instead. Impacts Signs that the recession is slowing will reduce the scope for a protest vote. Putin is keen to get EU sanctions lifted by July, not least for the electoral benefits. Buoyed by growing popular support, the Communist Party may evolve into a more active political force.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Russian Duma polls pave way for Putin's re-election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance Turnout was low, but President Vladimir Putin and other officials have dismissed the significance of this. The new parliament will contain the same parties as its predecessor: United Russia, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) and Just Russia. The liberal opposition failed to increase its low level of support. United Russia's success is a victory for Dmitry Medvedev, whose position as prime minister seems more secure than before. Impacts United Russia's three-quarters Duma majority will simplify the passage of constitutional amendments. This power may be used after the 2018 presidential election to remove limits on Putin's terms in office. The 50% of new Duma members who represent constituencies are liable to lobby for local interests. The low turnout suggests opposition-minded voters are demoralised or apathetic.

Malaysian opposition grouping unlikely to oust Najib

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Cooperative measures among Malaysian opposition parties and civil society groups. Significance A grouping of opposition critics of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has announced a series of 'roadshow' protests including a public 'Save Malaysia' protest meeting on March 28, to be attended by various leading political figures. This follows the March 4 signing of the Citizens' Declaration, the latest challenge to Najib and his government in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) controversy. Impacts The government will probably permit protests for now, to gauge their degree of support. The Save Malaysia group will seek thousands of public signatories of the Declaration. Political proxy fighting at the state level could unnerve investors.

Hezbollah could be Lebanon's dominant political force

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Statement ◽  
Internal Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Palestinian Refugees ◽  
Political Force

Significance On December 18, two months after Michel Aoun was elected president of Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad Hariri finally announced agreement on a ‘government of national accord’. The new Lebanese cabinet, which is strongly tilted towards Hezbollah, a Shia political-military grouping, has begun drafting a policy statement of its political and economic goals, which must be presented to parliament within 30 days. Impacts The new government will focus on internal stability and security, including control of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. Rising economic confidence could boost foreign investment. Syrian and Iranian influence over Lebanese foreign policy could increase. The new cabinet will support Hezbollah’s military role within the state and abroad.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

Framing and blaming in times of economic crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 814-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill C. Murray
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Diffusion Resistance ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
Critical Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article takes a critical approach to the language used by Australian politicians during the global financial crisis of 2007–8. Critical periods in history provide a rich substrate for the appearance of new expressions with the potential to frame the debate, influencing the ways events are interpreted and blame attributed. Passing unnoticed into usage, such memes have the potential to become part of unexamined background knowledge and covertly co-opt hearers and users into shared systems of value and belief. The study focusses on one specific neologism deployed by opposition politicians, firstly in an attempt to create the erroneous impression that a recession was occurring and secondly that it was the fault of the Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd. Patterns of occurrence were tracked against local and international events, indicating a life cycle with several distinct phases: chance emergence, a strategic deployment, cross-genre diffusion, resistance and eventual rejection.

Ideologues steer China to undemocratic future

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Communist Party ◽  
Chinese Communist Party ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Ideology ◽  
Foreign Governments ◽  
People's Congress

Subject The significance of the 'Four Comprehensives' ideological campaign. Significance Shortly before the National People's Congress opened last month, the state media presented the 'Four Comprehensives'. This is the rhetorical framework for the next stage of President Xi Jinping's leadership, and may become Xi's enduring contribution to Chinese Communist Party ideology. Impacts The Four Comprehensives signal that Xi intends the austerity and disciplinary campaigns to continue indefinitely. The Four Comprehensives are vague enough that policymakers of many stripes will invoke them to argue their case. Foreign governments and businesses should take ideological processes in China seriously; they are not 'empty' slogans.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

Conde's election win risks violent protests in Guinea

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Healthcare ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Traditional Healers ◽  
The State ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The win secures Conde a second five-year term. However, opposition parties allege widespread fraud. They refuse to recognise the result and threaten large-scale protests. Impacts New Ebola cases will set back the country's eradication timeline, possibly pushing the crisis into a third year. Mining firms could cite this as a reason further to delay infrastructure projects while they await better commodity prices. News that Ebola persists in semen for up to nine months means men could be carriers even after they are proclaimed cured. The state is likely to increase its use of traditional healers to treat Ebola -- to help overcome primary healthcare deficits.

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