Nigeria's Niger Delta violence will be hard to resolve

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Refining Capacity

Significance It is hobbling the critical hydrocarbon sector through high-profile attacks on oil installations. Impacts The government's decision to let the naira currency float freely against the dollar will improve relations with investors and donors. However, the naira's sharp depreciation will likely drive up inflation, exacerbating grievances over living costs. Progress on displacing Boko Haram from its main areas of operation will continue; the group may retaliate with bombings in urban areas. New oil infrastructure deals with China earlier with this week will improve Nigeria's refining capacity, but only in long term.

Obama's push on nuclear arms control faces hurdles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Security ◽  
Nuclear Opacity ◽  
Nuclear Arms Control

Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.

Nigeria’s president will struggle to contain threats

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
Presidential Succession ◽  
Inner Circle ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The bombing is the latest setback for the government. Recent military gains against Boko Haram and increasing oil production in the Niger Delta have failed to offset the distinct governance problems facing Abuja. Amid a deepening economic crisis, President Muhammadu Buhari is facing challenges within the ruling alliance and emergent political threats nationwide. Impacts Presidential succession manoeuvring could undermine unity, leading to ruling party infighting and a possible contested nomination process. Key members of Buhari’s inner circle will come under pressure to resign as new scandals emerge. Populist alternatives to the president will surface, as citizens grow frustrated with economic stagnation and high prices.

Prospects for Nigeria in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Nigeria in 2017. Significance Hopes of an economic turnaround will be limited by the continued shortage of foreign exchange crippling industrial outputs and consumer sectors. Renewed militancy and halting of oil production in the Niger Delta -- in addition to isolated Boko Haram attacks -- could make economic recovery unachievable in the short term. Unemployment and everyday poverty in urban centres may create pockets of emergent protest.

Islamist threat to spread to new areas in West Africa

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Airport Security ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Past

Subject Outlook for Islamist militancy in West Africa. Significance Over the past four months Islamist armed groups have carried out high-profile attacks in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. Such incidents are not new in the Sahel, but the methods and scale have changed. To some extent this mirrors changes seen in Nigeria, Kenya, the Middle East and Europe, where attackers explicitly target civilians in a bid to attract media attention. Impacts The risk of further attacks is unlikely to shift positive investor sentiment towards Ivory Coast, which is driven by strong GDP growth. Airport security will likely come under fresh scrutiny given recent bombings and hijackings in Somalia and Egypt respectively. Cameroon is vulnerable to further attacks given its involvement in the regional anti-Boko Haram force.

El Chapo arrest will not improve Mexican security

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Drug Trafficker ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Maximum Security ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Government

Subject The recapture of the world's most-wanted drug trafficker. Significance On January 8, federal police detained fugitive drug trafficker Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman Loera, following his high-profile escape from the maximum-security Altiplano prison on July 11. Both his escape and his recapture have generated considerable media attention, and could have ramifications for organised crime, the government of President Enrique Pena Nieto and US-Mexican relations. Impacts Another escape, though possible, is extremely unlikely. El Chapo's extradition may not take place until after the end of Pena Nieto's term. Any popularity increase for Pena Nieto resulting from the recapture will be short lived. While the Sinaloa cartel is relatively cohesive, it may splinter in the medium-to-long term.

Improved African infrastructure will be key to growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Insurance Firms ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Private Financing ◽  
Ssa Countries

Subject Infrastructure outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. Significance Africa's infrastructure needs are under increasing scrutiny after several recent high-profile summits, as well as visits by international leaders to the continent. Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries need to invest collectively an estimated 130-170 billion dollars per year to maintain and enhance transportation networks, achieve near 100% electrification and 100% access to water and sanitation. However, SSA faces an annual deficit of more than 68 billion dollars unless financing commitments increase sharply. Impacts A growing number of international insurance firms are likely to invest in regional and continent-wide infrastructure funds. Sovereign wealth funds could lead the private financing drive as they face fewer restrictions than pension funds and invest long-term. Amid growing African debt levels, development banks and multilateral bodies will increasingly support private infrastructure deals.

East Africa food security will test resilience concept

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Building Resilience

Significance This falls just short of a 'famine' warning -- which would require 20% of households to face catastrophe levels, as well as heightened malnutrition and mortality rates. The UN has warned of famine risks in four countries -- including two in the Horn of Africa. Immediate risks -- such as famine -- tend to absorb most aid funds, including those aimed at building resilience that would reduce humanitarian needs in the long term. Impacts If rains fail in the second half of this year, food security pressures could spiral. If famine prevention fails despite high-profile fundraising, aid agencies may face donor fatigue when seeking new funds for famine response. Differences in institutional approaches will complicate efforts to link humanitarian, development and peacebuilding activities.

Global cities could power economic growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Basic Services ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
Basic Infrastructure ◽  
Funding Gap

Subject The role of cities in global economic growth. Significance Cities, defined as metropolitan areas with over 500,000 inhabitants, are powering global economic growth. However, by 2014 the results were uneven, as the cities with the highest growth lie in developing countries, mainly in China, while many North American and European cities remain trapped in recession. Current urbanisation models are unsustainable in the long term, posing threats to future economic prosperity. Impacts Most large cities' economies are growing faster than their respective countries and will continue doing so. The less wealthy developing urban areas will converge economically with their more developed peers. The existing patterns of urban sprawl in many cities will lead to an increasing funding gap in basic infrastructure. This funding gap could cause the failure of many cities to deliver basic services such as transport.

Venezuela volatility threatens Latin American Telesur

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Role ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
Founder Member ◽  
Hugo Chavez ◽  
Legislative Changes

Subject The future of Telesur. Significance Eleven years after its 2005 launch, regional media network Telesur, sponsored by late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, has lost founder member Argentina. President Mauricio Macri's decision to withdraw is part of a wider shake-up of the domestic media landscape, but ministers also cited a lack of input into Telesur's running. This is borne out by evidence from within the company, where even high-profile supporters decry Venezuelan dominance despite collective ownership. Impacts Venezuela-centrism has negative editorial, financial and administrative effects while leaving Telesur dependent on one volatile state. However, Telesur will continue on this trajectory until economic and political upheaval leads to a change in government. The increasingly political role of private media in Latin America will sustain the dream of state-backed regional media. A long-term backlash could potentially bring further legislative changes on media ownership.

Political anxiety over social media in Africa to grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Virtual Private Networks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Media Usage ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Outlook for social media in sub-Saharan Africa. Significance Across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in recent months, several high-profile protests have been coordinated using social media platforms, including the #ThisFlag demonstrations in Zimbabwe and opposition unrest following Uganda's presidential elections. This is spurring governments to tighten rules governing online platforms and content, and block platforms such as Twitter and Whatsapp. Impacts Opposition activists will increase use of virtual private networks to circumvent blocks on censored websites. Initiatives such as the Forum on China-Africa Media Cooperation will help governments to police online content. Nevertheless, some Western donors will continue to sponsor initiatives, such as radio call-in shows, encouraging free speech. Clampdowns on social media will mainly affect political mobilisation in urban areas, for now, given poor rural internet penetration. Unit and subscription-related costs for web-enabled phones will continue to fall, increasing social media usage.

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