Spain's new government may be unstable and ineffective

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance His parliamentary approval only succeeded thanks to abstentions by the Socialist Party (PSOE). He will now form a minority government with the weakest parliamentary support for any prime minister since competitive elections returned to Spain in 1977. Impacts Tax rises, possibly in combination with spending cuts, may trigger a revival of social tensions. In the absence of major policy initiatives, economic growth is likely to slow down in 2017. Rajoy's dependence on PSOE and Citizens collaboration to pass a budget for 2017 by end-November will give them some leverage.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Departure of New Zealand’s Key may open 2017 election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
President Elect ◽  
National Coalition

Significance The unexpected departure of a popular prime minister opens up more space for opposition parties in the next election due by early November 2017. On Key’s watch, New Zealand weathered the 2007-09 global financial crisis, rebuilt from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, strengthened public finances and kicked off negotiations for the now moribund Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal to tie its export-driven economy to growing markets on the Pacific Rim. Impacts A re-elected National coalition or minority government reliant on New Zealand First would lead to greater policy instability. The next prime minister could inherit the problem of rising interest rates hitting leveraged homeowners. US President-elect Donald Trump’s positions on security, trade and climate policy could see Wellington focus more on ties with Asia.

Bet on Canada's spending poses risks for Trudeau

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
Business Tax ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

Significance It includes large federal stimulus spending to spur economic growth and to alleviate the worst impacts of the collapse in global commodity prices, particularly oil. The budget represents a break on the part of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the prevailing orthodoxy around fiscal austerity and reliance on central bank monetary policy to support growth. Impacts Small business tax rates remain unchanged from levels set by the previous Conservative government. Troubled Quebec aerospace firm Bombardier may receive a federal bailout. Post-election leadership questions surrounding the Conservatives and NDP provide Trudeau with a weakened opposition for the time being. Ambitious federal projections of revenues recovered from tax havens and arrears are unlikely to be realised.

Arbitration row may hurt Zagreb more than Ljubljana

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Bad Faith ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
Arbitration Process ◽  
National Solidarity ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The arbitration concerens the two countries' borders, most notably in the Bay of Piran. Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic claimed the process had been 'contaminated' by contact between the Slovenian member of the panel and the Slovenian Foreign Ministry's delegate to the court. Slovenia wants the process to continue and accuses Croatia of acting in bad faith and itself contaminating the arbitration process by spying on both the court and Slovenia. The Croatian government maintains parliamentary support was not needed legally; the vote in the Sabor is intended to indicate national solidarity. Impacts Croatia's withdrawal will destabilise the arbitration process and in effect end its work, even if Croatia cannot legally simply pull out. If the process ends, Slovenia will again fail to establish direct access to international waters, after an unratified 2011 deal. Croatia's withdrawal will encourage further border tensions in the region. Antagonising international partners is especially risky for Croatia as its economy is precarious and likely to need assistance.

A renewal of Germany’s grand coalition is likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Grand Coalition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Federal Structure

Significance The wording of the motion was left deliberately vague to leave the door open to either a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition or a CDU-led minority government with or without a confidence and supply deal with the SPD. Impacts Another grand coalition risks alienating voters further, potentially strengthening the far left and right. The AfD would effectively become leader of the opposition, give it a greater voice. Economic growth is unlikely to be affected by the stalemate thanks to robust institutions and the federal structure of the country.

Abe's ambitious plan targets Japan's key risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Foreign Workers ◽  
Fiscal Planning ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The Abe government's new fiscal plans. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has set out a six-year programme that combines fiscal planning with social policies to promote economic growth under severe demographic pressure. Impacts The plans are unlikely to encounter serious opposition within the ruling party or parliament. Visa reforms will admit temporary foreign workers in much greater numbers, but will restrict the scope for immigration. Making education free of charge aims to boost fertility, but even if this works the demographic boost is decades away. Cutting taxes on car and house sales will reduce revenue unless it stimulates very significant increases in sales.

Progressive split poses 2019 risk for Canada’s Trudeau

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
New Democratic Party

Subject Canada's federal political outlook. Significance Canada’s three main parties have all selected the leaders with which they will contest the 2019 federal election. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party now have two years in which to define themselves for the electorate and make a case for their parties to assume or resume control of government. Impacts Fallout from fundraiser links to the Paradise Papers tax avoidance controversy could undercut Trudeau’s Liberals. Trudeau’s strong Quebec ties will help him hold off the NDP, but Ontario losses could leave a Liberal minority government. Ontario’s 2018 provincial election will offer an early indication of the strength of Trudeau’s federal opponents.

The Swedish government is likely to win September vote

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Right

Subject Sweden's 2018 budget. Significance The minority government presented its last budget before the September 9 parliamentary elections earlier this month. The budget and its implementation are the government's last chance to emphasise its policy priorities, address problems and appeal to voters at a time when the main opposition party, the Moderates, is recovering in the polls. Impacts The expansive 2018 budget will support economic growth by boosting government investment and consumer spending. The salience of immigration and law and order means policies in these areas are likely to shift to the right after the election. A centre-right government supported by the Sweden Democrats would adopt a more cautious approach to EU integration. The next government will have to build new alliances to offset the loss of the United Kingdom as a key EU ally after Brexit.

Belize’s Barrow looks set for re-election in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central America ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transit Country ◽  
Fourth Term

Subject Belize election outlook. Significance Belize will hold national elections this year, with Prime Minister Dean Barrow set to run for a fourth term in office. The opposition will seek to attack him on issues of crime, migration and weak economic growth. However, his ruling United Democratic Party (UDP) is popular, especially following its victorious campaign in a May 2019 referendum on the country’s territorial dispute with Guatemala. Impacts Increased police funding should bring more officers onto the force in 2020. Migration trends across Central America will impact Belize, as both a destination and transit country. Taiwan will look to increase funding for Belize following the loss of diplomatic support from several other countries in the region.

Moderates look likely to win Catalan elections

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The moderate pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which also provides occasional parliamentary support to Spain’s minority government, appears to win the most seats. The more radical pro-independence parties are struggling to regain the appeal they had in 2017. Impacts The lack of stable government in Catalonia could last longer if the second wave of COVID-19-19 were to postpone the election. With the ERC in campaign mode, hopes of approving a new Spanish budget in January will probably be set back by several months. The longer-term social and economic impact of COVID-19 could strengthen support for Catalan independence.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document