Belize’s Barrow looks set for re-election in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central America ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transit Country ◽  
Fourth Term

Subject Belize election outlook. Significance Belize will hold national elections this year, with Prime Minister Dean Barrow set to run for a fourth term in office. The opposition will seek to attack him on issues of crime, migration and weak economic growth. However, his ruling United Democratic Party (UDP) is popular, especially following its victorious campaign in a May 2019 referendum on the country’s territorial dispute with Guatemala. Impacts Increased police funding should bring more officers onto the force in 2020. Migration trends across Central America will impact Belize, as both a destination and transit country. Taiwan will look to increase funding for Belize following the loss of diplomatic support from several other countries in the region.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Bet on Canada's spending poses risks for Trudeau

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
Business Tax ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

Significance It includes large federal stimulus spending to spur economic growth and to alleviate the worst impacts of the collapse in global commodity prices, particularly oil. The budget represents a break on the part of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the prevailing orthodoxy around fiscal austerity and reliance on central bank monetary policy to support growth. Impacts Small business tax rates remain unchanged from levels set by the previous Conservative government. Troubled Quebec aerospace firm Bombardier may receive a federal bailout. Post-election leadership questions surrounding the Conservatives and NDP provide Trudeau with a weakened opposition for the time being. Ambitious federal projections of revenues recovered from tax havens and arrears are unlikely to be realised.

Spain's new government may be unstable and ineffective

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance His parliamentary approval only succeeded thanks to abstentions by the Socialist Party (PSOE). He will now form a minority government with the weakest parliamentary support for any prime minister since competitive elections returned to Spain in 1977. Impacts Tax rises, possibly in combination with spending cuts, may trigger a revival of social tensions. In the absence of major policy initiatives, economic growth is likely to slow down in 2017. Rajoy's dependence on PSOE and Citizens collaboration to pass a budget for 2017 by end-November will give them some leverage.

Abe's ambitious plan targets Japan's key risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Social Policies ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Foreign Workers ◽  
Fiscal Planning ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The Abe government's new fiscal plans. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has set out a six-year programme that combines fiscal planning with social policies to promote economic growth under severe demographic pressure. Impacts The plans are unlikely to encounter serious opposition within the ruling party or parliament. Visa reforms will admit temporary foreign workers in much greater numbers, but will restrict the scope for immigration. Making education free of charge aims to boost fertility, but even if this works the demographic boost is decades away. Cutting taxes on car and house sales will reduce revenue unless it stimulates very significant increases in sales.

Progressive split poses 2019 risk for Canada’s Trudeau

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
New Democratic Party

Subject Canada's federal political outlook. Significance Canada’s three main parties have all selected the leaders with which they will contest the 2019 federal election. New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party now have two years in which to define themselves for the electorate and make a case for their parties to assume or resume control of government. Impacts Fallout from fundraiser links to the Paradise Papers tax avoidance controversy could undercut Trudeau’s Liberals. Trudeau’s strong Quebec ties will help him hold off the NDP, but Ontario losses could leave a Liberal minority government. Ontario’s 2018 provincial election will offer an early indication of the strength of Trudeau’s federal opponents.

Belize elections herald government shake-up

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Visitor Numbers ◽  
Socioeconomic Challenges

Significance Long-standing Prime Minister Dean Barrow will not be running again, so that Belize will experience a change of leadership even if his United Democratic Party (UDP) wins re-election. The key electoral issues will revolve around the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and allegations of corruption affecting the UDP. Impacts Tourism will be slow to recover, with ongoing restrictions and reduced visitor numbers seeing many businesses struggle. The severity of the pandemic in the United States, Belize’s main source of tourists, increases the risks of reopening to visitors. COVID-19 concerns could result in a low election turnout, undermining the mandate of the winning party. Whoever wins the election will inherit major socioeconomic challenges that will curtail any political honeymoon period.

Disparate new Montenegrin government looks fragile

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.

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